一种新决策模型——量子决策模型

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2018.01365

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近10年以来, 一些学者基于量子理论研究思想与方法探索出了量子决策模型。由于该模型独特的理论结构, 它可被用于解释传统决策理论所难以解释的问题, 尤其是个体在不确定情况下的决策行为。该模型解释了诸如分离效应、分类决策的干涉效应以及合取谬误等传统决策模型很难解释的问题, 研究者已经证实其中一种称为量子问题等式的决策模型可以精确地预测决策中的顺序效应。作为一个有助于分析心理学中决策现象的新研究领域, 量子决策模型具有深入研究的理论意义和实践意义。

关键词: 量子, 决策, 模型, 概率

Abstract:

During the recent decade, quantum decision-making models were established based on the mathematical structure and methodologies of quantum mechanics. Owing to its unique theoretical structure, the quantum decision-making models can be applied to explain problems that violate the classical decision models, especially for judgments under uncertainty and decisions under conflicts. Quantum decision-making models have been used to explain phenomena such as disjunction effect, conjunction fallacy and interference of categorization on decision making which are difficult to account for with classical decision models. A model called quantum question equality has been tested for its accurate prediction of order effects. Being a new research field contributing to analysis of decision making, quantum decision-making models worth further investigations both in theoretical and applicative levels.

Key words: quantum, decision making, model, probability

中图分类号:

B841.2

辛潇洋, 徐晨虹, 陈宏玉, 李瑛. (2018). 一种新决策模型——量子决策模型. 心理科学进展 , 26(8), 1365-1373.

XIN Xiaoyang, XU Chenhong, CHEN Hongyu, LI Ying. (2018). Quantum models for decision making. Advances in Psychological Science, 26(8), 1365-1373.

图/表 6

图1 薛定谔的猫

图2 双缝衍射路径简图

表1 分类-决策实验的部分实验结果(资料来源：Busemeyer & Bruza, 2012)

C-then-D					D-alone
p (G)	p (A\|G)	p (B)	p (A\|B)	p_T(A)	p (A)
0.17	0.41	0.83	0.63	0.59	0.69

图3 分类决策实验的路径简图

图4 Linda问题的几何投影解释图(注：彩图见电子版)

图5 量子问题等式统计结果图(资料来源：Busemeyer & Wang, 2015)

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