不确定性与预期误差对情绪强度的作用：来自行为、眼动和fMRI的证据

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2026.2532

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 不确定性(Uncertainty)与预期误差(Prediction Error)被认为是影响情绪生成与变化的重要因素, 并可能进一步塑造个体的情绪强度。以往研究指出, 情绪强度可能与效价和唤醒度的共同作用有关。然而, 不确定性与预期误差如何影响情绪的效价、唤醒度及其强度表征, 目前仍缺乏系统证据。本研究采用改编版的卡牌赌博任务, 通过两个实验系统考察不确定性与预期误差对效价、唤醒度及情绪强度的影响机制。实验1通过眼动技术发现, 不确定性与预期误差在情绪唤醒度及瞳孔扩张反应上存在相似的交互作用模式, 但在效价上则不同。实验2显示不确定性与预期误差的主效应及交互效应涉及不同的脑区活动模式。进一步的数理统计分析初步揭示了效价与唤醒度在共同表征情绪强度时可能存在的特定关系。综上, 不确定性与预期误差对情绪强度的影响, 建立在其对情绪效价和唤醒度差异性作用的基础之上。本研究从行为、眼动和神经影像多个层面, 为理解不确定性与预期误差如何塑造情绪体验提供了系统证据, 也为应激与情绪调节相关研究提供了新的理论视角。

关键词: 预期误差, 不确定性, 唤醒度, 效价, 情绪强度

Abstract: Uncertainty and prediction error play important roles in the initiation and regulation of emotions, and may serve as critical determinants of emotional intensity. Previous studies have suggested that emotional intensity may result from the combination of the value of arousal and valence. However, it remains unclear how uncertainty and prediction error influence these two dimensions independently or jointly, and how such influences further shape emotional intensity. Therefore, the present study aims to systematically examine the effects of uncertainty and prediction error on arousal and valence, and further explore their roles in emotional intensity.
The present study conducted two experiments, using a card-gambling task adapted from the cue-target paradigm. Experiment 1 investigate how uncertainty and prediction error affect emotional responses at the subjective and physiological levels, with combined behavioral measures and eye-tracking techniques. Experiment 2 examine their differential influences on arousal and valence at the neural level using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). A total of 36 valid participants were included in Experiment 1, and 16 valid participants were included in Experiment 2.
The results in experiment 1 showed that uncertainty and prediction error had significant interactive effects on arousal ratings and pupil dilation responses. Under low-uncertainty conditions, unexpected outcomes elicited higher arousal and greater pupil dilation than expected outcomes, whereas these differences were attenuated under high uncertainty. In contrast, the pattern observed in valence differed from that found for arousal and pupil responses, suggesting that uncertainty and prediction error may influence different components of emotion in distinct ways. The results in experiment 2 identified condition-dependent neural responses associated with uncertainty and prediction error. In addition, the interaction between uncertainty and prediction error engaged a distributed network of brain regions, including the superior frontal gyrus, middle frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate gyrus, caudate nucleus, putamen, and brainstem.
In conclusion, these results suggest that the influence of uncertainty and prediction error on emotional intensity is based on their different effects on arousal and valence. High uncertainty may impair the formation or precision of prediction error, thereby affecting subjective emotional experience and physiological responses. By integrating behavioral, eye-tracking, and neuroimaging evidence, the present study provides convergent support for the cognitive and neural mechanisms through which uncertainty and prediction error shape emotional experience, and thus offers a useful perspective for future research on stress and emotion regulation.

Key words: prediction error, uncertainty, arousal, valence, emotional intensity

中图分类号:

B842

袁梦琪, 邹迪, 代乔, 万蓓, 刘庆科, 顾思梦, 王福顺. (2026). 不确定性与预期误差对情绪强度的作用：来自行为、眼动和fMRI的证据. 心理学报, 58(12), 2532-2546.

YUAN Mengqi, ZOU Di, DAI Qiao, WAN Bei, LIU Qinke, GU Simeng, WANG Fushun. (2026). The impact of uncertainty and prediction errors on emotional intensity: Evidence from behavior, eye-tracking, and fMRI. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 58(12), 2532-2546.

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