关键词: 概率, 表征, 心理距离, 心理建构, 决策

Abstract: Probability is an expression of uncertainty. Recent research found that likely events are tend to represent by their abstract and essential features, whereas unlikely events are tent to represent by their concrete and incidental features. In corresponding, activating abstract construals will reduce the probability estimates of the events, whereas concrete representations will increase the probability estimates. Moreover, the predictive relation between cue and outcome in the training period can also affect the probability estimates. Future research should investigate why probability can affect the construal level of events, the adjustment of raw value and the combinatorial probability estimates, and the inner mechanism of these phenomenon.

Key words: probability, representation, mental distance, mental construal, decision making