心理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 642-657.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2023.00642
收稿日期:
2021-09-03
发布日期:
2022-12-30
出版日期:
2023-04-25
通讯作者:
李其容
E-mail:cirongli@jlu.edu.cn
基金资助:
LI Cirong1,2(), LI Chunxuan1, YANG Yanyu1
Received:
2021-09-03
Online:
2022-12-30
Published:
2023-04-25
Contact:
LI Cirong
E-mail:cirongli@jlu.edu.cn
摘要:
基于动机性自我调节框架, 通过两项独立研究, 探讨前期创业努力对随后创业进展的影响及其内在机理——创业自我效能的中介与调节定向的调节作用。对115名新创业者进行为期6个月(研究1)和对70名新创业者进行为期15个月的追踪调查(研究2), 分别构建多层次跨期中介效应检验模型和多层线性回归模型进行数据分析。结果发现: (1)创业自我效能在前期创业进展对随后创业努力的影响中起中介角色; (2)从总体上看(即不考虑调节定向作用时), 前期创业进展通过正向影响创业自我效能, 负向影响随后创业努力; (3)促进定向水平越高, 创业自我效能对随后创业努力产生越强的负向影响, 从而前期创业进展与随后创业努力的间接负相关关系越强; (4)预防定向水平越高, 创业自我效能对随后创业努力产生越弱的负向影响, 从而前期创业进展与随后创业努力的间接负相关关系越弱。这一结果弥合了过往创业自我调节过程研究的混淆结论, 拓展了创业情境下的动机性自我调节框架与调节定向观研究, 对于揭示创业过程的动态性、复杂性具有积极作用。
中图分类号:
李其容, 李春萱, 杨艳宇. (2023). 创业进展与创业努力的多层次关系:创业自我效能的中介与调节定向的调节作用. 心理学报, 55(4), 642-657.
LI Cirong, LI Chunxuan, YANG Yanyu. (2023). A longitudinal multilevel approach to examine the relationship between new venture progress and entrepreneurial effort: The mediating role of entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the moderating role of regulatory focus. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 55(4), 642-657.
变量 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. T1创业进展 | — | ||||||||||||
2. T2创业进展 | 0.46*** | — | |||||||||||
3. T3创业进展 | 0.43*** | 0.50*** | — | ||||||||||
4. T1创业自我效能 | 0.44*** | 0.42*** | 0.30*** | — | |||||||||
5. T2创业自我效能 | 0.50*** | 0.37*** | 0.36*** | 0.62*** | — | ||||||||
6. T3创业自我效能 | 0.31*** | 0.43*** | 0.36*** | 0.50*** | 0.60*** | — | |||||||
7. T1创业努力 | 0.42*** | 0.37*** | 0.33*** | 0.47*** | 0.75*** | 0.48*** | — | ||||||
8. T2创业努力 | 0.18 | 0.21* | 0.11 | 0.28** | 0.49*** | 0.32*** | 0.67*** | — | |||||
9. T3创业努力 | 0.21* | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.33*** | 0.40*** | 0.27** | 0.57*** | 0.53*** | — | ||||
10. 性别 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.001 | 0.03 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.03 | — | |||
11. 学历 | 0.09 | -0.08 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 0.002 | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | ||
12. 婚姻状况 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.08 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.16 | 0.05 | — | |
13. 年龄 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.004 | -0.19* | -0.15 | — |
M | 4.59 | 4.70 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.66 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.69 | 0.43 | 2.40 | 0.88 | 35.96 |
SD | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 5.58 |
表1 研究1描述性统计与相关分析
变量 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. T1创业进展 | — | ||||||||||||
2. T2创业进展 | 0.46*** | — | |||||||||||
3. T3创业进展 | 0.43*** | 0.50*** | — | ||||||||||
4. T1创业自我效能 | 0.44*** | 0.42*** | 0.30*** | — | |||||||||
5. T2创业自我效能 | 0.50*** | 0.37*** | 0.36*** | 0.62*** | — | ||||||||
6. T3创业自我效能 | 0.31*** | 0.43*** | 0.36*** | 0.50*** | 0.60*** | — | |||||||
7. T1创业努力 | 0.42*** | 0.37*** | 0.33*** | 0.47*** | 0.75*** | 0.48*** | — | ||||||
8. T2创业努力 | 0.18 | 0.21* | 0.11 | 0.28** | 0.49*** | 0.32*** | 0.67*** | — | |||||
9. T3创业努力 | 0.21* | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.33*** | 0.40*** | 0.27** | 0.57*** | 0.53*** | — | ||||
10. 性别 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.001 | 0.03 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.03 | — | |||
11. 学历 | 0.09 | -0.08 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 0.002 | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | ||
12. 婚姻状况 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.08 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.16 | 0.05 | — | |
13. 年龄 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.004 | -0.19* | -0.15 | — |
M | 4.59 | 4.70 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.66 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.69 | 0.43 | 2.40 | 0.88 | 35.96 |
SD | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 5.58 |
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | TLI | RMSEA | SRMR | Δχ2 | Δdf | p | ΔCFI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 形态等值 | 751.48 | 681 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
M2: 弱等值性 | 788.06 | 721 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 36.58 | 40 | 0.63 | 0.001 |
M3: 强等值性 | 820.11 | 761 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 32.05 | 40 | 0.81 | 0.002 |
M4: 严格等值 | 847.01 | 807 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 26.91 | 46 | 0.99 | 0.005 |
表2 研究1测量等值性检验
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | TLI | RMSEA | SRMR | Δχ2 | Δdf | p | ΔCFI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 形态等值 | 751.48 | 681 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
M2: 弱等值性 | 788.06 | 721 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 36.58 | 40 | 0.63 | 0.001 |
M3: 强等值性 | 820.11 | 761 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 32.05 | 40 | 0.81 | 0.002 |
M4: 严格等值 | 847.01 | 807 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 26.91 | 46 | 0.99 | 0.005 |
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | TLI | RMSEA | SRMR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 自由估计 | 52.67 | 19 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
M2: 等值约束 | 60.10 | 27 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
表3 自由估计与等值约束模型的适配度比较
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | TLI | RMSEA | SRMR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 自由估计 | 52.67 | 19 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
M2: 等值约束 | 60.10 | 27 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
路径描述 | 路径 | Estimate | Std. Err | p |
---|---|---|---|---|
个体内−自回归路径 | 创业进展 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.39 |
创业努力 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.12 | |
创业自我效能 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 0.72 | |
个体内−交叉滞后路径 | 创业进展(Tn-1)→创业自我效能(Tn) | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.010 |
创业自我效能(Tn-1)→创业努力(Tn) | -0.29 | 0.12 | 0.012 | |
个体内−协相关路径 | 创业进展(T1)↔创业自我效能(T1) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
创业自我效能(T1)↔创业努力(T1) | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | |
创业进展(T1)↔创业努力(T1) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 | |
创业进展(T1)↔创业努力(T3) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.31 | |
创业进展(Tn)↔创业自我效能(Tn) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.58 | |
创业自我效能(Tn)↔创业努力(Tn) | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.22 | |
创业进展(Tn)↔创业努力(Tn) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.60 | |
个体间路径 | 创业进展Between↔创业自我效能Between | 0.09 | 0.02 | <0.001 |
创业自我效能Between↔创业努力Between | 0.16 | 0.03 | <0.001 | |
创业进展Between↔创业努力Between | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.001 |
表4 跨期中介效应模型的路径系数估计
路径描述 | 路径 | Estimate | Std. Err | p |
---|---|---|---|---|
个体内−自回归路径 | 创业进展 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.39 |
创业努力 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.12 | |
创业自我效能 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 0.72 | |
个体内−交叉滞后路径 | 创业进展(Tn-1)→创业自我效能(Tn) | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.010 |
创业自我效能(Tn-1)→创业努力(Tn) | -0.29 | 0.12 | 0.012 | |
个体内−协相关路径 | 创业进展(T1)↔创业自我效能(T1) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
创业自我效能(T1)↔创业努力(T1) | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | |
创业进展(T1)↔创业努力(T1) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 | |
创业进展(T1)↔创业努力(T3) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.31 | |
创业进展(Tn)↔创业自我效能(Tn) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.58 | |
创业自我效能(Tn)↔创业努力(Tn) | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.22 | |
创业进展(Tn)↔创业努力(Tn) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.60 | |
个体间路径 | 创业进展Between↔创业自我效能Between | 0.09 | 0.02 | <0.001 |
创业自我效能Between↔创业努力Between | 0.16 | 0.03 | <0.001 | |
创业进展Between↔创业努力Between | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.001 |
变量 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. T1创业进展 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2. T2创业进展 | 0.05 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3. T3创业进展 | -0.20 | 0.03 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||
4. T4创业进展 | -0.12 | -0.18 | -0.26** | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
5. T5创业进展 | -0.02 | -0.17 | 0.10 | -0.04 | — | |||||||||||||||||||
6. T6创业进展 | 0.19 | -0.20 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.10 | — | ||||||||||||||||||
7. T1创业自我效能 | 0.26** | -0.16 | 0.24** | -0.17 | 0.02 | 0.30** | — | |||||||||||||||||
8. T2创业自我效能 | 0.02 | 0.28** | -0.41*** | -0.03 | -0.27** | -0.20* | -0.37*** | — | ||||||||||||||||
9. T3创业自我效能 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.35*** | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.004 | 0.18 | -0.39*** | — | |||||||||||||||
10. T4创业自我效能 | 0.10 | 0.02 | -0.32*** | 0.30** | -0.18 | 0.10 | -0.20 | 0.35*** | -0.32*** | — | ||||||||||||||
11. T5创业自我效能 | -0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.07 | 0.32*** | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 0.004 | -0.21* | — | |||||||||||||
12. T6创业自我效能 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.38*** | 0.33*** | -0.45*** | 0.19 | -0.001 | -0.005 | — | ||||||||||||
13. T1创业努力 | 0.29** | -0.19 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.57*** | 0.17 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.15 | — | |||||||||||
14. T2创业努力 | -0.11 | 0.19 | -0.01 | 0.23* | 0.004 | 0.03 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.22* | 0.04 | 0.06 | — | ||||||||||
15. T3创业努力 | 0.16 | -0.13 | 0.31** | -0.23* | -0.04 | 0.37*** | 0.49*** | -0.28** | 0.26** | -0.09 | 0.06 | 0.30** | 0.33*** | 0.03 | — | |||||||||
16. T4创业努力 | -0.51*** | 0.02 | -0.16 | 0.26** | -0.14 | -0.30** | -0.30** | 0.39*** | -0.17 | 0.17 | -0.11 | -0.31*** | -0.47*** | -0.12 | -0.31*** | — | ||||||||
17. T5创业努力 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.37*** | -0.19 | 0.31*** | 0.09 | 0.32*** | -0.33*** | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.03 | 0.28** | 0.05 | -0.11 | 0.18 | -0.34*** | — | |||||||
18. T6创业努力 | 0.75*** | 0.03 | -0.29** | -0.07 | -0.13 | 0.30** | 0.23* | 0.13 | -0.14 | 0.18 | -0.29** | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.16 | -0.34*** | 0.05 | — | ||||||
19. 促进定向 | 0.78*** | 0.11 | -0.04 | -0.21* | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.21* | -0.21* | 0.19 | -0.08 | 0.0003 | 0.31*** | 0.33*** | 0.03 | 0.14 | -0.77*** | 0.22* | 0.60*** | — | |||||
20. 预防定向 | 0.75*** | -0.07 | -0.20* | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.01 | -0.11 | 0.06 | -0.31*** | 0.17 | 0.23* | -0.02 | 0.09 | -0.49*** | 0.10 | 0.66*** | 0.72*** | — | ||||
21. 性别 | -0.08 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.05 | 0.13 | -0.23* | 0.03 | -0.19 | 0.07 | -0.20* | 0.18 | -0.10 | -0.20 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.09 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.12 | — | |||
22. 学历 | 0.03 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.08 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.20* | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.04 | -0.02 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.09 | — | ||
23. 婚姻状况 | -0.18 | 0.12 | 0.10 | -0.12 | 0.06 | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.19 | -0.23* | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.07 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.20* | -0.25** | -0.25** | — | |
24. 年龄 | -0.11 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.11 | -0.18 | -0.15 | 0.05 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.14 | 0.11 | -0.30** | 0.14 | -0.24** | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.13 | — |
M | 4.61 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.60 | 4.55 | 4.61 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.67 | 4.61 | 4.68 | 4.62 | 4.66 | 4.62 | 4.70 | 4.64 | 0.36 | 2.44 | 0.87 | 42.44 |
SD | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 1.03 | 0.34 | 7.72 |
表5 研究2描述性统计与相关分析
变量 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. T1创业进展 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2. T2创业进展 | 0.05 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3. T3创业进展 | -0.20 | 0.03 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||
4. T4创业进展 | -0.12 | -0.18 | -0.26** | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
5. T5创业进展 | -0.02 | -0.17 | 0.10 | -0.04 | — | |||||||||||||||||||
6. T6创业进展 | 0.19 | -0.20 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.10 | — | ||||||||||||||||||
7. T1创业自我效能 | 0.26** | -0.16 | 0.24** | -0.17 | 0.02 | 0.30** | — | |||||||||||||||||
8. T2创业自我效能 | 0.02 | 0.28** | -0.41*** | -0.03 | -0.27** | -0.20* | -0.37*** | — | ||||||||||||||||
9. T3创业自我效能 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.35*** | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.004 | 0.18 | -0.39*** | — | |||||||||||||||
10. T4创业自我效能 | 0.10 | 0.02 | -0.32*** | 0.30** | -0.18 | 0.10 | -0.20 | 0.35*** | -0.32*** | — | ||||||||||||||
11. T5创业自我效能 | -0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.07 | 0.32*** | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 0.004 | -0.21* | — | |||||||||||||
12. T6创业自我效能 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.38*** | 0.33*** | -0.45*** | 0.19 | -0.001 | -0.005 | — | ||||||||||||
13. T1创业努力 | 0.29** | -0.19 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.57*** | 0.17 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.15 | — | |||||||||||
14. T2创业努力 | -0.11 | 0.19 | -0.01 | 0.23* | 0.004 | 0.03 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.22* | 0.04 | 0.06 | — | ||||||||||
15. T3创业努力 | 0.16 | -0.13 | 0.31** | -0.23* | -0.04 | 0.37*** | 0.49*** | -0.28** | 0.26** | -0.09 | 0.06 | 0.30** | 0.33*** | 0.03 | — | |||||||||
16. T4创业努力 | -0.51*** | 0.02 | -0.16 | 0.26** | -0.14 | -0.30** | -0.30** | 0.39*** | -0.17 | 0.17 | -0.11 | -0.31*** | -0.47*** | -0.12 | -0.31*** | — | ||||||||
17. T5创业努力 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.37*** | -0.19 | 0.31*** | 0.09 | 0.32*** | -0.33*** | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.03 | 0.28** | 0.05 | -0.11 | 0.18 | -0.34*** | — | |||||||
18. T6创业努力 | 0.75*** | 0.03 | -0.29** | -0.07 | -0.13 | 0.30** | 0.23* | 0.13 | -0.14 | 0.18 | -0.29** | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.16 | -0.34*** | 0.05 | — | ||||||
19. 促进定向 | 0.78*** | 0.11 | -0.04 | -0.21* | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.21* | -0.21* | 0.19 | -0.08 | 0.0003 | 0.31*** | 0.33*** | 0.03 | 0.14 | -0.77*** | 0.22* | 0.60*** | — | |||||
20. 预防定向 | 0.75*** | -0.07 | -0.20* | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.01 | -0.11 | 0.06 | -0.31*** | 0.17 | 0.23* | -0.02 | 0.09 | -0.49*** | 0.10 | 0.66*** | 0.72*** | — | ||||
21. 性别 | -0.08 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.05 | 0.13 | -0.23* | 0.03 | -0.19 | 0.07 | -0.20* | 0.18 | -0.10 | -0.20 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.09 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.12 | — | |||
22. 学历 | 0.03 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.08 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.20* | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.04 | -0.02 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.09 | — | ||
23. 婚姻状况 | -0.18 | 0.12 | 0.10 | -0.12 | 0.06 | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.19 | -0.23* | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.07 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.20* | -0.25** | -0.25** | — | |
24. 年龄 | -0.11 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.11 | -0.18 | -0.15 | 0.05 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.14 | 0.11 | -0.30** | 0.14 | -0.24** | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.13 | — |
M | 4.61 | 4.65 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.60 | 4.55 | 4.61 | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.67 | 4.61 | 4.68 | 4.62 | 4.66 | 4.62 | 4.70 | 4.64 | 0.36 | 2.44 | 0.87 | 42.44 |
SD | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 1.03 | 0.34 | 7.72 |
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | RMSEA | SRMR | Δχ2 | Δdf | p | ΔCFI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 形态等值 | 1912.81 | 1362 | 0.90 | 0.08 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — |
M2: 弱等值性 | 1993.97 | 1462 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 81.16 | 100 | 0.92 | 0.004 |
M3: 强等值性 | 2097.23 | 1562 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 103.26 | 100 | 0.39 | -0.001 |
M4: 严格等值 | 2210.23 | 1667 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 113.00 | 115 | 0.54 | 0.001 |
表6 研究2测量等值性检验
模型 | χ2 | df | CFI | RMSEA | SRMR | Δχ2 | Δdf | p | ΔCFI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: 形态等值 | 1912.81 | 1362 | 0.90 | 0.08 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — |
M2: 弱等值性 | 1993.97 | 1462 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 81.16 | 100 | 0.92 | 0.004 |
M3: 强等值性 | 2097.23 | 1562 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 103.26 | 100 | 0.39 | -0.001 |
M4: 严格等值 | 2210.23 | 1667 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 113.00 | 115 | 0.54 | 0.001 |
变量 | 创业努力(Tn+1) | 创业自我效能(Tn) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | |||||
Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | |
截距 | 5.77 (0.77)*** | [4.25, 7.24] | 5.77 (0.75)*** | [4.29, 7.24] | 5.10 (0.28)*** | [4.53, 5.66] | 5.16 (0.60)*** | [3.98, 6.32] |
时间 | 0.000 (0.02) | [-0.05, 0.05] | -0.004 (0.03) | [-0.06, 0.04] | 0.000 (0.02) | [-0.05, 0.04] | 0.01 (0.02) | [-0.04, 0.05] |
自变量 | ||||||||
创业进展(Tn-1) | -0.17 (0.08)* | [-0.33, 0.02] | -0.10 (0.08) | [-0.26, 0.05] | -0.11 (0.08) | [-0.27, 0.04] | 0.32 (0.06)*** | [0.20, 0.45] |
创业自我效能(Tn) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.36, -0.08] | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.36, -0.09] | ||||
调节变量 | ||||||||
促进定向 | -0.01 (0.05) | [-0.11, 0.09] | ||||||
预防定向 | 0.04 (0.05) | [-0.07, 0.15] | ||||||
交互项 | ||||||||
创业自我效能 (Tn)×促进定向 | -0.29 (0.09)*** | [-0.47, -0.12] | ||||||
创业自我效能 (Tn)×预防定向 | 0.23 (0.10)* | [0.04, 0.43] | ||||||
控制变量 | ||||||||
创业努力(Tn) | -0.20 (0.06)** | [-0.27, -0.03] | -0.19 (0.06)** | [-0.30, -0.07] | -0.15 (0.06)** | [-0.27, -0.03] | 0.02 (0.05) | [-0.08, 0.12] |
性别 | 0.03 (0.08) | [-0.13, 0.18] | 0.04 (0.08) | [-0.12, 0.18] | 0.04 (0.08) | [-0.12, 0.19] | -0.03 (0.07) | [-0.16, 0.12] |
年龄 | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.62, 0.14] | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.02, 0.003] | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.63, 0.14] | -0.16 (0.15) | [-0.46, 0.14] |
学历 | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.10, 0.04] | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.12, 0.03] | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.11, 0.03] | -0.002 (0.03) | [-0.06, 0.06] |
婚姻状况 | -0.17 (0.12) | [-0.40, 0.06] | -0.17 (0.12) | [-0.40, 0.08] | -0.14 (0.11) | [-0.37, 0.08] | 0.03 (0.10) | [-0.15, 0.23] |
方差成分a | ||||||||
残差方差 | 0.37 (0.03)*** | [0.32, 0.44] | 0.35 (0.03)*** | [0.30, 0.42] | 0.34 (0.03)*** | [0.29, 0.41] | 0.28 (0.02)*** | [0.24, 0.33] |
个体层−截距方差 | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.003 (0.004)*** | [0.000, 0.02] |
个体层−时间−斜率方差 | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.004] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] |
个体层−创业进展−斜率方差 | 0.08 (0.06)*** | [0.01, 0.21] | 0.08 (0.06)*** | [0.01, 0.23] | 0.09(0.06)*** | [0.02, 0.24] | 0.02 (0.03)*** | [0.002, 0.09] |
个体层−创业自我效能−斜率方差 | 0.04 (0.04)*** | [0.003, 0.16] | 0.03 (0.03)*** | [0.001, 0.12] |
表7 多层线性回归模型分析结果
变量 | 创业努力(Tn+1) | 创业自我效能(Tn) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | |||||
Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | |
截距 | 5.77 (0.77)*** | [4.25, 7.24] | 5.77 (0.75)*** | [4.29, 7.24] | 5.10 (0.28)*** | [4.53, 5.66] | 5.16 (0.60)*** | [3.98, 6.32] |
时间 | 0.000 (0.02) | [-0.05, 0.05] | -0.004 (0.03) | [-0.06, 0.04] | 0.000 (0.02) | [-0.05, 0.04] | 0.01 (0.02) | [-0.04, 0.05] |
自变量 | ||||||||
创业进展(Tn-1) | -0.17 (0.08)* | [-0.33, 0.02] | -0.10 (0.08) | [-0.26, 0.05] | -0.11 (0.08) | [-0.27, 0.04] | 0.32 (0.06)*** | [0.20, 0.45] |
创业自我效能(Tn) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.36, -0.08] | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.36, -0.09] | ||||
调节变量 | ||||||||
促进定向 | -0.01 (0.05) | [-0.11, 0.09] | ||||||
预防定向 | 0.04 (0.05) | [-0.07, 0.15] | ||||||
交互项 | ||||||||
创业自我效能 (Tn)×促进定向 | -0.29 (0.09)*** | [-0.47, -0.12] | ||||||
创业自我效能 (Tn)×预防定向 | 0.23 (0.10)* | [0.04, 0.43] | ||||||
控制变量 | ||||||||
创业努力(Tn) | -0.20 (0.06)** | [-0.27, -0.03] | -0.19 (0.06)** | [-0.30, -0.07] | -0.15 (0.06)** | [-0.27, -0.03] | 0.02 (0.05) | [-0.08, 0.12] |
性别 | 0.03 (0.08) | [-0.13, 0.18] | 0.04 (0.08) | [-0.12, 0.18] | 0.04 (0.08) | [-0.12, 0.19] | -0.03 (0.07) | [-0.16, 0.12] |
年龄 | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.62, 0.14] | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.02, 0.003] | -0.24 (0.19) | [-0.63, 0.14] | -0.16 (0.15) | [-0.46, 0.14] |
学历 | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.10, 0.04] | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.12, 0.03] | -0.04 (0.04) | [-0.11, 0.03] | -0.002 (0.03) | [-0.06, 0.06] |
婚姻状况 | -0.17 (0.12) | [-0.40, 0.06] | -0.17 (0.12) | [-0.40, 0.08] | -0.14 (0.11) | [-0.37, 0.08] | 0.03 (0.10) | [-0.15, 0.23] |
方差成分a | ||||||||
残差方差 | 0.37 (0.03)*** | [0.32, 0.44] | 0.35 (0.03)*** | [0.30, 0.42] | 0.34 (0.03)*** | [0.29, 0.41] | 0.28 (0.02)*** | [0.24, 0.33] |
个体层−截距方差 | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.01 (0.01)*** | [0.000, 0.03] | 0.003 (0.004)*** | [0.000, 0.02] |
个体层−时间−斜率方差 | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.004] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] | 0.001 (0.001)*** | [0.001, 0.003] |
个体层−创业进展−斜率方差 | 0.08 (0.06)*** | [0.01, 0.21] | 0.08 (0.06)*** | [0.01, 0.23] | 0.09(0.06)*** | [0.02, 0.24] | 0.02 (0.03)*** | [0.002, 0.09] |
个体层−创业自我效能−斜率方差 | 0.04 (0.04)*** | [0.003, 0.16] | 0.03 (0.03)*** | [0.001, 0.12] |
调节变量取值 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | |
高促进定向(+1 SD) | -0.52 (0.12)*** | [-0.75, -0.29] | -0.17 (0.05)*** | [-0.28, -0.08] |
平均促进定向(M) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.37, -0.09] | -0.07 (0.03)** | [-0.14, -0.03] |
低促进定向(-1 SD) | 0.06 (0.11) | [-0.17, 0.29] | 0.02 (0.04) | [-0.06, 0.10] |
系数差异 | -0.58 (0.18)*** | [-0.94, -0.24] | -0.18 (0.07)*** | [-0.34, -0.07] |
高预防定向(+1 SD) | -0.002 (0.12) | [-0.24, 0.22] | -0.001 (0.05) | [-0.08, 0.08] |
平均预防定向(M) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.37, -0.09] | -0.07 (0.03)** | [-0.14, -0.03] |
低预防定向(-1 SD) | -0.46 (0.12)** | [-0.69, -0.22] | -0.14 (0.05)** | [-0.25, -0.06] |
系数差异 | 0.44 (0.19)* | [0.08, 0.83] | 0.14 (0.07)* | [0.02, 0.29] |
表8 研究2马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗法分析结果
调节变量取值 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Bate (SD) | 95% CI | Bate (SD) | 95% CI | |
高促进定向(+1 SD) | -0.52 (0.12)*** | [-0.75, -0.29] | -0.17 (0.05)*** | [-0.28, -0.08] |
平均促进定向(M) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.37, -0.09] | -0.07 (0.03)** | [-0.14, -0.03] |
低促进定向(-1 SD) | 0.06 (0.11) | [-0.17, 0.29] | 0.02 (0.04) | [-0.06, 0.10] |
系数差异 | -0.58 (0.18)*** | [-0.94, -0.24] | -0.18 (0.07)*** | [-0.34, -0.07] |
高预防定向(+1 SD) | -0.002 (0.12) | [-0.24, 0.22] | -0.001 (0.05) | [-0.08, 0.08] |
平均预防定向(M) | -0.23 (0.07)** | [-0.37, -0.09] | -0.07 (0.03)** | [-0.14, -0.03] |
低预防定向(-1 SD) | -0.46 (0.12)** | [-0.69, -0.22] | -0.14 (0.05)** | [-0.25, -0.06] |
系数差异 | 0.44 (0.19)* | [0.08, 0.83] | 0.14 (0.07)* | [0.02, 0.29] |
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