关键词: 预期误差, 不确定性, 唤醒度, 效价, 情绪强度

Abstract: Background. Uncertainty and prediction error play important roles in the generation and modulation of emotion, and may serve as critical determinants of emotional intensity. Previous studies have suggested that emotional intensity may arise from the combined contribution of arousal and valence. However, it remains unclear how uncertainty and prediction error independently and jointly influence these two dimensions, and how such influences further shape emotional intensity. Therefore, the present study aimed to systematically examine the effects of uncertainty and prediction error on arousal and valence, and to further explore their roles in emotional intensity. Method. Using a card-gambling task adapted from the cue–target paradigm, the present study conducted two experiments. Experiment 1 combined behavioral measures and eye-tracking techniques to investigate how uncertainty and prediction error affect emotional responses at the subjective and physiological levels. Experiment 2 further employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine their differential influences on arousal and valence at the neural level. In total, 36 valid participants were included in Experiment 1, and 16 valid participants were included in Experiment 2. Results. Experiment 1 showed that uncertainty and prediction error had significant interactive effects on arousal ratings and pupil dilation responses. Under low-uncertainty conditions, unexpected outcomes elicited higher arousal and greater pupil dilation than expected outcomes, whereas these differences were attenuated under high uncertainty. In contrast, the pattern observed in valence differed from that found for arousal and pupil responses, suggesting that uncertainty and prediction error may influence different components of emotion in distinct ways. Experiment 2 further revealed that uncertainty and prediction error exerted differential effects on arousal and valence at the neural level. In addition, the interaction between uncertainty and prediction error engaged a distributed network of brain regions, including the superior frontal gyrus, middle frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate gyrus, caudate nucleus, putamen, and brainstem. Conclusion. These findings indicate that the influence of uncertainty and prediction error on emotional intensity is based on their differential effects on arousal and valence. High uncertainty may impair the formation or precision of prediction error, thereby modulating subjective emotional experience and physiological responses. By integrating behavioral, eye-tracking, and neuroimaging evidence, the present study provides convergent support for the cognitive and neural mechanisms through which uncertainty and prediction error shape emotional experience, and offers a useful perspective for future research on stress and emotion regulation.

Key words: prediction error, uncertainty, arousal, valence, emotional intensity