ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办：中国科学院心理研究所
出版：科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 1837-1854.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.01837

• 决策心理学专栏 •    下一篇

判断与决策研究纵观：基于模糊痕迹理论的视角

Roni Setton; Evan Wilhelms; Becky Weldon; Christina Chick; Valerie Reyna   

  1. (美国康奈尔大学 人类发展和心理学系, 行为经济和决策研究中心)
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-15 出版日期:2014-12-15 发布日期:2014-12-15
  • 通讯作者: Valerie Reyna

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory

Roni Setton; Evan Wilhelms; Becky Weldon; Christina Chick; Valerie Reyna   

  1. (Departments of Human Development and Psychology, Human Neuroscience Institute, Center for Behavioral Economics and Decision Research, Cornell University, USA)
  • Received:2014-10-15 Online:2014-12-15 Published:2014-12-15
  • Contact: Valerie Reyna

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摘要：

模糊痕迹理论是用于解释记忆、判断与决策的综合性理论, 该理论的提出和发展主要基于对信息存储、表征、提取和加工过程的研究。本文首先介绍了模糊痕迹理论的基本原则, 在此基础上重点讨论了其要义(gist)如何发挥核心作用, 使得模糊痕迹理论有别于其他传统的决策模型。该理论将高级直觉与原始冲动性进行了区分, 并且预测决策误差来源于判断与决策的各种不同成分, 如背景知识、信息表征、提取和加工过程等。模糊痕迹理论不仅可以解释诸如框架效应、合取谬误等传统决策与判断文献中常讨论的误差现象, 同时基于该理论的研究还得到了一些与传统决策理论相悖的新发现。此外, 对脑与行为如何发育性变化的研究为我们了解成人的认知过程提供了至关重要的新视角, 这些对脑与行为的发育性研究和对特殊人群的研究结果也都支持了模糊痕迹理论对要义加工依赖的预测。

关键词: 决策, 模糊痕迹理论, 风险, 理性, 神经科学, 发展

Abstract:

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory’s predictions about reliance on gist processing.

Key words: decision making, fuzzy trace theory, risk, rationality, neuroscience, development