关键词: 贝叶斯推理, 推理材料, 推理者, 整合

Abstract: On the viewpoint of longitudinal development, recent years’ research on Bayesian reasoning has been gradually converted from valuing reasoning materials and despising reasoners (performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation and the diagram, contents of material, ecological validity) to valuing reasoners (knowledge background, subject relevancy, etc) and the reasoning process, and then to integrating reasoning materials, reasoners and the reasoning process. On the viewpoint of crosswise development, every longitudinal stage also included a crosswise development inside, and the multidimensional structure of the study has been shaped. At last, we proposed our future directions, namely introducing new methods to research Bayesian reasoning, exploring new reasoner’s factors which may affect Bayesian reasoning and assuming the integrated trend.

Key words: Bayesian reasoning, reasoning material, reasoner, integration