ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 230-236.

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贝叶斯推理研究的三个层次

史滋福; 王香香; 陈姣; 张庆林   

  1. 湖南师范大学教育科学学院, 长沙 410081
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-09 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-02-15 发布日期:2010-02-15
  • 通讯作者: 史滋福

The Three-level Research of Bayesian Reasoning

SHI Zi-Fu; WANG Xiang-Xiang; CHEN Jiao; ZHANG Qing-Lin   

  1. College of Educational Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
  • Received:2009-07-09 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-02-15 Published:2010-02-15
  • Contact: SHI Zi-Fu

摘要: 从纵向发展来看, 近年来贝叶斯推理研究从重推理问题轻推理者因素(关注频率信息和图表呈现的促进效应, 推理问题内容对推理的影响, 生态效度等), 逐渐转向重视推理者因素(知识背景, 主体关联性程度等)和推理过程, 最后发展到将推理问题、推理者和推理过程整合的趋势; 从横向发展来看, 各个纵向发展的阶段内部也有横向发展阶段, 整个研究结构呈立体状。未来的研究应进一步结合推理材料、推理过程考察推理者因素如焦虑、认知风格、元认知和工作记忆等对贝叶斯推理的影响, 并利用新的研究手段如ERP、眼动仪等探索和验证贝叶斯推理的影响因素及其认知加工过程。

关键词: 贝叶斯推理, 推理材料, 推理者, 整合

Abstract: On the viewpoint of longitudinal development, recent years’ research on Bayesian reasoning has been gradually converted from valuing reasoning materials and despising reasoners (performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation and the diagram, contents of material, ecological validity) to valuing reasoners (knowledge background, subject relevancy, etc) and the reasoning process, and then to integrating reasoning materials, reasoners and the reasoning process. On the viewpoint of crosswise development, every longitudinal stage also included a crosswise development inside, and the multidimensional structure of the study has been shaped. At last, we proposed our future directions, namely introducing new methods to research Bayesian reasoning, exploring new reasoner’s factors which may affect Bayesian reasoning and assuming the integrated trend.

Key words: Bayesian reasoning, reasoning material, reasoner, integration