“长计远虑”的助推效应：怀孕与环境跨期决策 *

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2018.00858

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

如何做出有利于长期环境利益的跨期决策是一个重要的科学问题。4个研究探讨了为子孙后代的“长计远虑”对环境跨期决策的助推作用。研究1通过对比真实孕妇和未孕女性, 探讨怀孕、长计远虑水平和环境跨期决策三者之间的关系; 研究2通过启动育龄女性的怀孕状态, 进一步验证了长计远虑在怀孕与环境跨期决策中的中介作用; 研究3和4开发助推研究范式, 探讨为子孙后代的长计远虑对环保政策支持意愿和实际环保行为的影响。结果发现：不管是真实怀孕还是实验室启动怀孕, 都会提高人们的长计远虑水平, 并且在环境跨期决策中偏好远期选项; 将长计远虑作为一种助推手段, 能够在实验室和现场研究中助推环境跨期决策。这些结论对于理解怀孕的进化功能和基于“长计远虑”开发长远环保政策具有借鉴意义。

关键词: 环境跨期决策, 助推, 时间折扣率, 长计远虑, 怀孕

Abstract:

Environmental issues are currently of particular concern in the world. Thus, it is important to understand the processes that contribute to prudent long-term choices regarding the environment. To this end, it is important to study environmental intertemporal choice, especially the improvement of foresight in environmental time discounting.

The present research combined questionnaire-based, lab-based and field studies to investigate whether “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased time discounting in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 1 probed the link between pregnancy and environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 aimed to replicate the results from Study 1 by controlling for the confounding variables of the physiological state of pregnancy in a lab experiment. In Study 3, a priming paradigm was developed to test this hypothesis. Participants were instructed to indicate their degree of support for specific environmental policies after the benefits of the policy were described. The test materials were the same in the experimental and control groups with the exception that an additional phrase was included in the experimental condition: “To leave our children with blue sky, green earth, clear water, and a beautiful home”. Building on Study 3, Study 4 employed a similar nudge-like intervention to investigate the effects of “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” on the extent to which participants support a federal environmental policy and donation incentive for charitable organizations.

Study 1 indicated that pregnancy increased long-term thought in environmental intertemporal choice and decreased the temporal discounting rate through comparisons between pregnant and non-pregnant participants. Moreover, long-term thinking mediated the effect of pregnancy on the discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 replicated the results of Study 1 regarding the links between the psychological priming of pregnancy and the discount rate in environmental intertemporal choice. The first two studies investigated whether natural pregnancy influenced the time discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Based on these results, Study 3 tested the intervention hypothesis, which suggests that the subtle priming associated with the characteristics of pregnancy would influence the degree of support for long-term environmental policies. The results demonstrated that a simple prime that referred to “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased long-term thinking in intertemporal choice. Importantly, we produced similar nudging effects in Study 4 and showed that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased the donation incentive towards a charity that aimed to improve the environment of China.

The results from our four studies provide consistent evidence that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased myopic behaviour in environmental intertemporal choice. These results are crucial for the design of nudge interventions that improve the long-term interests of both individuals and collectives while persevering the freedom of individual choice. Furthermore, this research also sheds light on the theoretical attributions to underlying intertemporal models and the effects of the physiological state of pregnancy on choice.

Key words: environmental intertemporal choice, nudge intervention, time discounting, long thought, pregnancy

中图分类号:

分类号 B849:C91

李爱梅, 王海侠, 孙海龙, 熊冠星, 杨韶丽. (2018). “长计远虑”的助推效应：怀孕与环境跨期决策 ^*. 心理学报, 50(8), 858-867.

LI Aimei, WANG Haixia, SUN Hailong, XIONG Guanxing, YANG Shaoli. (2018). The nudge effect of “foresight for the future of our children”: Pregnancy and environmental intertemporal choice. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 50(8), 858-867.

图/表 3

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研究	被试	研究设计	研究目的	可能的机制解释
研究1	126名女性	真实怀孕组和未孕组	现象初探: 生理怀孕与环境跨期决策	主要有两种: 一种可能是生理怀孕的生理变化, 另一种可能是怀孕的心理感知, 即对后代的长计远虑
研究2	118名女性	怀孕心理启动组与控制组	排除生理因素: 怀孕心理启动与环境跨期决策	怀孕的心理感知, 即对后代的长计远虑是怀孕与环境跨期决策的心理机制
研究3	230名女性	因素设计^a	验证长计远虑心理对现实环保政策的支持意愿的助推效应: 为子孙后代的长计远虑与环境政策支持意愿	为子孙后代的“长计远虑”这种心理在环保政策支持主观意愿上的助推效应
研究4	141名女性	助推组和非助推组	验证长计远虑对真实环保公益捐款的助推效应: 为子孙后代的长计远虑助推环保公益	为子孙后代的“长计远虑”这种心理在现实环保公益实际行为上的助推效应

研究	被试	研究设计	研究目的	可能的机制解释
研究1	126名女性	真实怀孕组和未孕组	现象初探: 生理怀孕与环境跨期决策	主要有两种: 一种可能是生理怀孕的生理变化, 另一种可能是怀孕的心理感知, 即对后代的长计远虑
研究2	118名女性	怀孕心理启动组与控制组	排除生理因素: 怀孕心理启动与环境跨期决策	怀孕的心理感知, 即对后代的长计远虑是怀孕与环境跨期决策的心理机制
研究3	230名女性	因素设计^a	验证长计远虑心理对现实环保政策的支持意愿的助推效应: 为子孙后代的长计远虑与环境政策支持意愿	为子孙后代的“长计远虑”这种心理在环保政策支持主观意愿上的助推效应
研究4	141名女性	助推组和非助推组	验证长计远虑对真实环保公益捐款的助推效应: 为子孙后代的长计远虑助推环保公益	为子孙后代的“长计远虑”这种心理在现实环保公益实际行为上的助推效应

预测变量	模型1	模型2
年龄	-0.20 (0.31)	-0.024 (0.30)
文化程度	-2.96 (1.58)	-2.41 (1.53)
月花销	0.63 (0.58)	0.39 (0.56)
月收入	-0.07 (0.56)	0.28 (0.55)
是否处于生理周期	4.36 (3.71)	2.18 (3.65)
是否具有怀孕经验	-1.08 (3.63)	1.56 (3.61)
子女个数	1.00 (2.33)	0.01 (2.27)
怀孕周数	0.14 (0.12)	0.05 (0.12)
周围环境噪音	1.74 (0.89)*	1.7 (0.85)*
空气污染影响孩子成长大小	1.63 (1.20)	1.57 (1.16)
公益项目真实性	0.75 (1.00)	0.61 (0.97)
利他特质	-1.06 (1.42)	-1.38 (1.38)
组别		7.93 (2.70)**
Adjusted R²	0.03	0.10
F	F(12,100) = 1.25	F(13,99) = 1.90*

预测变量	模型1	模型2
年龄	-0.20 (0.31)	-0.024 (0.30)
文化程度	-2.96 (1.58)	-2.41 (1.53)
月花销	0.63 (0.58)	0.39 (0.56)
月收入	-0.07 (0.56)	0.28 (0.55)
是否处于生理周期	4.36 (3.71)	2.18 (3.65)
是否具有怀孕经验	-1.08 (3.63)	1.56 (3.61)
子女个数	1.00 (2.33)	0.01 (2.27)
怀孕周数	0.14 (0.12)	0.05 (0.12)
周围环境噪音	1.74 (0.89)*	1.7 (0.85)*
空气污染影响孩子成长大小	1.63 (1.20)	1.57 (1.16)
公益项目真实性	0.75 (1.00)	0.61 (0.97)
利他特质	-1.06 (1.42)	-1.38 (1.38)
组别		7.93 (2.70)**
Adjusted R²	0.03	0.10
F	F(12,100) = 1.25	F(13,99) = 1.90*