中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁——基于年龄−时期−世代效应的分析

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2025.0463

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用中国综合社会调查数据(2003~2021), 描述分析了中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁趋势及其影响因素。研究发现, 普遍信任随个体年龄的增长呈现出“U”型曲线趋势(年龄效应), 且随不同测量时期总体上呈现为上升趋势(时期效应), 同时, 普遍信任随不同世代呈倒“U”型趋势(世代效应)：自1925世代起逐步上升, 于1940世代由负转正, 随后1945世代至1970世代间进入相对稳定的平台时期, 1975世代后开始迅速下降, 1990世代落到建国后的最低值, 此后缓慢回升。研究还发现, 亲属关系和收入差距对普遍信任的变迁产生显著的负向影响, 而市场化系数、人口流动率、社会组织数量、平均受教育年限和政府信任指数等变量则对普遍信任的变迁产生正向影响。论文将普遍信任的历时性变迁特征嵌入到近百年来中国社会发展的不同阶段以及由此而生成的不同信任模式中加以解释, 研究结果丰富了学术界对我国民众普遍信任变迁趋势的描述及其理论解释。

关键词: 普遍信任, 年龄?时期?世代效应, 社会变迁

Abstract:

Since the start of the Chinese Revolution in the early 20th century and the establishment of the People's Republic of China, China has undergone significant transformations in political, economic, social, and cultural aspects. These changes have significantly altered the values and social mentality of the Chinese people. They have disrupted traditional social bonds and trust networks, resulting in altered public trust. An analysis of the historical changes in general trust among the Chinese population is crucial for enhancing social governance and establishing a solid foundation for Chinese-style modernization.

To accurately describe these trends, this study uses large-scale representative sample data (N = 95, 283) from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) conducted between 2003 and 2021 by Renmin University of China. Employing a stratified age-period-cohort (HAPC) model, it analyzes the changing trends of general trust among Chinese individuals across three dimensions: age, period, and birth cohort, while also offering preliminary explanations for group differences.

The study leads to six main conclusions: (1) General trust follows a "U-shaped" pattern with age, where middle-aged individuals have lower trust levels compared to both younger and older people. (2) Period effects exhibit an upward trend, marked by two significant points: a quick decline in general trust from 2003 to 2005, a stable phase from 2010 to 2015, and a notable rise in 2017. (3) The generational effect on general trust shows an inverted “U-shaped” trend. Trust gradually increases among the 1925 cohort, rises to positive levels by the 1940 cohort, stabilizes between the 1945 and 1970 generations, and sharply declines to the lowest point with the 1990 cohort. (4) Rural residents generally demonstrate higher levels of trust across most age groups, periods, and generations than urban residents, although this gap is narrowing over time. (5) Individuals with higher education levels exhibit greater general trust and more variability across different age groups. (6) Strong kinship ties and large income disparities negatively affect changes in general trust. In contrast, factors such as marketization, population mobility, the number of social organizations, average years of education, and the government trust index positively influence changes in trust.

By utilizing a consistent dataset over a lengthy period, this study addresses inaccuracies in previous research caused by insufficient data or inconsistent measurements. It provides a view of trust trends among the Chinese population over nearly two decades. By analyzing the effects of generation and age on general trust, this research enhances the scientific rigor of its conclusions. It integrates the dynamics of changing general trust with the broader context of social transformation and historical development. This analysis reveals the changes in trust among different generations of Chinese people through various stages of societal development over the past century. Additionally, the introduction of the HAPC model improves upon the traditional APC model, allowing for a more precise separation of the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Robustness checks using IE and CGLM methods further confirm the reliability of the findings.

Key words: generalized trust, age-period-cohort effect, social change

中图分类号:

B849: C91

高学德, 马号云. (2025). 中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁——基于年龄−时期−世代效应的分析. 心理学报, 57(3), 463-478.

GAO Xuede, MA Haoyun. (2025). Changing trends of Chinese people's generalized trust: A dynamic analysis of the age-period-cohort effect. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 57(3), 463-478.

图/表 20

参考文献 72

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	建国前 (传统社会)	建国后到改革开放初期	改革开放后
信任模式	关系信任	单位信任	制度信任
信任来源	传统和习俗	庇护和分配	契约和制度
信任支点	家本位	国本位	社会本位
信任环境	时空稳固	时空确定	时空不确定
关系性质	熟人关系	同志关系	生人关系
心理基础	情感	认同	认知
风险水平	低	低	高
人口流动性	低	低	高
普遍信任	较低	较高	较低

	建国前 (传统社会)	建国后到改革开放初期	改革开放后
信任模式	关系信任	单位信任	制度信任
信任来源	传统和习俗	庇护和分配	契约和制度
信任支点	家本位	国本位	社会本位
信任环境	时空稳固	时空确定	时空不确定
关系性质	熟人关系	同志关系	生人关系
心理基础	情感	认同	认知
风险水平	低	低	高
人口流动性	低	低	高
普遍信任	较低	较高	较低

变量	编码	频数/频率		变量	编码	频数(频率)
调查年份	2003	5866	(6.15%)	世代平均受教育年限	均值(标准差)	9.7718	(1.5997)
	2005	10262	(10.76%)	世代出生人口规模	均值(标准差)	10.1712	(2.5055)
	2010	11759	(12.33%)	世代亲属关系	均值(标准差)	2.4157	(0.0905)
	2012	11758	(12.33%)	性别	男	45752	(48.00%)
	2013	11423	(11.98%)		女	49596	(52.00%)
	2015	10927	(11.46%)	民族	汉族	87985	(92.30%)
	2017	12533	(13.14%)		少数民族	7363	(7.70%)
	2018	12741	(13.36%)	政治面貌	党员	11095	(11.60%)
	2021	8079	(8.47%)		非党员	84253	(88.40%)
年龄	均值(标准差)	48.92	(16.440)	婚姻状况	已婚	74682	(78.30%)
市场化系数	均值(标准差)	7.3697	(0.7987)		未婚及其他	20666	(21.70%)
人口流动率	均值(标准差)	19.00%	(4.9867)	户籍	城市户口	47144	(49.40%)
社会组织数量	均值(标准差)	5.7480	(0.1564)		农村户口	48204	(50.60%)
政府信任指数	均值(标准差)	77.31	(7.5404)	教育程度	高等教育	16170	(17.00%)
基尼系数	均值(标准差)	0.4724	(0.0070)		非高等教育	79113	(83.00%)
时期平均受教育年限	均值(标准差)	9.8508	(0.6382)	亲属关系	高亲属关系	34514	(36.20%)
时期亲属关系	均值(标准差)	2.4169	(0.5303)		低亲属关系	60803	(63.80%)

变量	编码	频数/频率		变量	编码	频数(频率)
调查年份	2003	5866	(6.15%)	世代平均受教育年限	均值(标准差)	9.7718	(1.5997)
	2005	10262	(10.76%)	世代出生人口规模	均值(标准差)	10.1712	(2.5055)
	2010	11759	(12.33%)	世代亲属关系	均值(标准差)	2.4157	(0.0905)
	2012	11758	(12.33%)	性别	男	45752	(48.00%)
	2013	11423	(11.98%)		女	49596	(52.00%)
	2015	10927	(11.46%)	民族	汉族	87985	(92.30%)
	2017	12533	(13.14%)		少数民族	7363	(7.70%)
	2018	12741	(13.36%)	政治面貌	党员	11095	(11.60%)
	2021	8079	(8.47%)		非党员	84253	(88.40%)
年龄	均值(标准差)	48.92	(16.440)	婚姻状况	已婚	74682	(78.30%)
市场化系数	均值(标准差)	7.3697	(0.7987)		未婚及其他	20666	(21.70%)
人口流动率	均值(标准差)	19.00%	(4.9867)	户籍	城市户口	47144	(49.40%)
社会组织数量	均值(标准差)	5.7480	(0.1564)		农村户口	48204	(50.60%)
政府信任指数	均值(标准差)	77.31	(7.5404)	教育程度	高等教育	16170	(17.00%)
基尼系数	均值(标准差)	0.4724	(0.0070)		非高等教育	79113	(83.00%)
时期平均受教育年限	均值(标准差)	9.8508	(0.6382)	亲属关系	高亲属关系	34514	(36.20%)
时期亲属关系	均值(标准差)	2.4169	(0.5303)		低亲属关系	60803	(63.80%)

解释变量		基础模型	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
截距		3.0442^***	−15.9680	3.0102^***	2.9983^***	3.0816^***
年龄		0.0041^***	0.0000	0.0022^***	0.0056^***	0.0063^***
年龄平方		0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0001^*
性别		0.0236^***	0.0237^***	0.0193^**	0.0245^***	0.0240^***
政治面貌		0.1209^***	0.1209^***	0.1516^***	0.0979^***	0.1212^***
民族		−0.0400^**	−0.0397^**	−0.0287^*	−0.0455^***	−0.0402^***
婚姻状况		0.0390^***	0.0394^***	0.0463^***	0.0561^***	0.0379^***
时期协变量
	时期亲属关系		−1.3748^***
	市场化系数		−0.4419^*
	社会组织数量		6.8659 ⁺
	人口流动率		0.0173
	时期平均受教育年限		−1.4894
	基尼系数		2.6006
	政府信任指数		0.0054
世代协变量
	世代平均受教育年限		−0.0722^***
	世代亲属关系		−0.2223^**
	出生人口规模		0.0155^**
户籍类型				0.0918^**
教育程度					0.0489
亲属关系						−0.0588
年龄交互项
	年龄×户籍			0.0048^***
	年龄平方×户籍			−0.0001^**
	年龄×教育				−0.0051^***
	年龄平方×教育				0.0000
	年龄×亲属					−0.0034^**
	年龄平方×亲属					0.0003^***
时期方差
截距		0.4214^*	0.0039	0.4176^*	0.0042^*	0.4992^*
户籍类型				0.0033^*
教育程度					0.0047^*
亲属关系						0.0072^*
世代方差
截距		0.0070^*	0.0016^*	0.0027⁺	0.0118^*	0.0023^*
户籍类型				0.0021^*
教育程度					0.0017
亲属关系						0.0117^*
BIC		267929.3	267893.3	267564.3	267709.5	267809.7