心理学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (9): 1159-1175.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2024.01159
苑明亮1, 伍俊辉2,3, 金淑娴4, 林靓5, 寇彧5(), Paul A. M. Van Lange6
收稿日期:
2023-07-25
发布日期:
2024-06-25
出版日期:
2024-09-25
通讯作者:
寇彧
E-mail:kouyu@bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
YUAN Mingliang1, WU Junhui2,3, JIN Shuxian4, LIN Jing5, KOU Yu5(), PAUL A. M. Van Lange6
Received:
2023-07-25
Online:
2024-06-25
Published:
2024-09-25
Contact:
KOU Yu
E-mail:kouyu@bnu.edu.cn
摘要:
陌生人间的合作行为对于解决社会公共问题, 应对世界百年未有之大变局意义重大。本研究采用横断历史元分析方法, 基于1999~2019年间开展的254项使用社会困境范式测量我国陌生人间合作行为的研究(共302个合作率, 29249名被试, 平均年龄:18~28岁), 探讨了中国社会中合作行为的变迁及一些社会发展指标在其中的解释作用, 并比较中美两国的合作行为变迁趋势。结果表明, 中国人的合作行为水平随时间而上升, 一些社会发展指标(人均国内生产总值、城市化率、高等教育水平、互联网普及率等)可能是其上升的社会变迁基础。中美两国合作行为表现出相似的上升趋势, 但中国的在更短时间内有更大上升幅度。研究结果对提振民众信心具有重要意义。
中图分类号:
苑明亮, 伍俊辉, 金淑娴, 林靓, 寇彧, Paul A. M. Van Lange. (2024). 中国社会陌生人之间合作行为的变迁:基于社会困境研究的元分析(1999~2019). 心理学报, 56(9), 1159-1175.
YUAN Mingliang, WU Junhui, JIN Shuxian, LIN Jing, KOU Yu, PAUL A. M. Van Lange. (2024). The changes in cooperation among strangers in China: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of social dilemmas (1999~2019). Acta Psychologica Sinica, 56(9), 1159-1175.
社会指标 | M (SD) | 全距 | 时间跨度 |
---|---|---|---|
人均GDP:对数转换(log-transformed)后人均GDP。 | 9.46 (1.17) | 7.34−11.16 | 1989~2019 |
社会保障率:城镇参加养老保险人数占总人口的比例。 | 0.15 (0.08) | 0.05−0.31 | 1989~2019 |
城市化率:城镇人口占总人口百分比。 | 42.34 (11.93) | 26.21−62.71 | 1989~2019 |
人户分离人口比例:人户分离人数占总人口比例。 | 0.14 (0.06) | 0.05−0.22 | 1998; 2000; 2002~2019 |
第三产业人员比例:第三产业就业人员占所有就业人员比例。 | 0.31 (0.08) | 0.18−0.47 | 1989~2019 |
居民平均出游人次:国内游客人次除以总人口。 | 1.58 (1.18) | 0.44−4.26 | 1994~2019 |
独居人口比例:一人户家庭户户数占总家庭户户数的比例。 | 0.12 (0.04) | 0.06−0.18 | 1998~1999;2002~2009;2011~2019 |
粗离婚率(‰):某地区当年离婚对数占该地区年平均人口的比重, 即粗离婚率=当年离婚对数/年平均人口数×1000‰。 | 1.60 (0.88) | 0.68−3.36 | 1989~2019 |
高等教育水平:每10万人口平均在校生数(人)。 | 6.98 (0.85) | 5.22−7.96 | 1989~2019 |
互联网普及率:互联网上网人数占总人口比例。 | 0.26 (0.22) | 0.001−0.64 | 1997~2019 |
表1 社会指标的描述性信息
社会指标 | M (SD) | 全距 | 时间跨度 |
---|---|---|---|
人均GDP:对数转换(log-transformed)后人均GDP。 | 9.46 (1.17) | 7.34−11.16 | 1989~2019 |
社会保障率:城镇参加养老保险人数占总人口的比例。 | 0.15 (0.08) | 0.05−0.31 | 1989~2019 |
城市化率:城镇人口占总人口百分比。 | 42.34 (11.93) | 26.21−62.71 | 1989~2019 |
人户分离人口比例:人户分离人数占总人口比例。 | 0.14 (0.06) | 0.05−0.22 | 1998; 2000; 2002~2019 |
第三产业人员比例:第三产业就业人员占所有就业人员比例。 | 0.31 (0.08) | 0.18−0.47 | 1989~2019 |
居民平均出游人次:国内游客人次除以总人口。 | 1.58 (1.18) | 0.44−4.26 | 1994~2019 |
独居人口比例:一人户家庭户户数占总家庭户户数的比例。 | 0.12 (0.04) | 0.06−0.18 | 1998~1999;2002~2009;2011~2019 |
粗离婚率(‰):某地区当年离婚对数占该地区年平均人口的比重, 即粗离婚率=当年离婚对数/年平均人口数×1000‰。 | 1.60 (0.88) | 0.68−3.36 | 1989~2019 |
高等教育水平:每10万人口平均在校生数(人)。 | 6.98 (0.85) | 5.22−7.96 | 1989~2019 |
互联网普及率:互联网上网人数占总人口比例。 | 0.26 (0.22) | 0.001−0.64 | 1997~2019 |
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b | SE | 95% CI | β | b | SE | 95% CI | β | |
时间 | 0.018* | 0.008 | [0.002, 0.035] | 0.12 | 0.024** | 0.009 | [0.007, 0.041] | 0.16 |
社会困境类型a | 0.16 | 0.10 | [−0.04, 0.36] | 0.14 | ||||
男性被试比例 | 0.31 | 0.27 | [−0.22, 0.84] | 0.09 | ||||
互动重复性b | ||||||||
混合 | −0.26 | 0.21 | [−0.67, 0.15] | −0.07 | ||||
重复 | 0.02 | 0.07 | [−0.12, 0.16] | 0.01 | ||||
群体规模 | −0.21 | 0.12 | [−0.45, 0.03] | −0.14 | ||||
K指数 | 0.73** | 0.24 | [0.25, 1.21] | 0.17 | ||||
沟通c | ||||||||
混合 | 0.12 | 0.29 | [−0.45, 0.69] | 0.02 | ||||
沟通 | 0.83** | 0.26 | [0.33, 1.34] | 0.18 | ||||
奖惩机制d | ||||||||
混合 | 0.00 | 0.14 | [−0.28, 0.27] | −0.01 | ||||
奖惩 | 0.44*** | 0.10 | [0.24, 0.64] | 0.27 | ||||
合作率所属轮次e | 0.00 | 0.11 | [−0.22, 0.22] | 0.01 | ||||
模型统计指标 | ||||||||
Q模型(df) | 4.83 (1)* | 55.97 (12)*** | ||||||
Q残差(df) | 19146.79 (300)*** | 13487.52 (289)*** | ||||||
R2 | 0.01 | 0.12 | ||||||
τ2 (水平2) | 0.23 | 0.18 | ||||||
τ2 (水平3) | 0.05 | 0.07 | ||||||
I2 (水平2) | 82.10 | 69.47 | ||||||
I2 (水平3) | 16.56 | 28.65 |
表2 时间影响合作行为的元回归模型结果
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b | SE | 95% CI | β | b | SE | 95% CI | β | |
时间 | 0.018* | 0.008 | [0.002, 0.035] | 0.12 | 0.024** | 0.009 | [0.007, 0.041] | 0.16 |
社会困境类型a | 0.16 | 0.10 | [−0.04, 0.36] | 0.14 | ||||
男性被试比例 | 0.31 | 0.27 | [−0.22, 0.84] | 0.09 | ||||
互动重复性b | ||||||||
混合 | −0.26 | 0.21 | [−0.67, 0.15] | −0.07 | ||||
重复 | 0.02 | 0.07 | [−0.12, 0.16] | 0.01 | ||||
群体规模 | −0.21 | 0.12 | [−0.45, 0.03] | −0.14 | ||||
K指数 | 0.73** | 0.24 | [0.25, 1.21] | 0.17 | ||||
沟通c | ||||||||
混合 | 0.12 | 0.29 | [−0.45, 0.69] | 0.02 | ||||
沟通 | 0.83** | 0.26 | [0.33, 1.34] | 0.18 | ||||
奖惩机制d | ||||||||
混合 | 0.00 | 0.14 | [−0.28, 0.27] | −0.01 | ||||
奖惩 | 0.44*** | 0.10 | [0.24, 0.64] | 0.27 | ||||
合作率所属轮次e | 0.00 | 0.11 | [−0.22, 0.22] | 0.01 | ||||
模型统计指标 | ||||||||
Q模型(df) | 4.83 (1)* | 55.97 (12)*** | ||||||
Q残差(df) | 19146.79 (300)*** | 13487.52 (289)*** | ||||||
R2 | 0.01 | 0.12 | ||||||
τ2 (水平2) | 0.23 | 0.18 | ||||||
τ2 (水平3) | 0.05 | 0.07 | ||||||
I2 (水平2) | 82.10 | 69.47 | ||||||
I2 (水平3) | 16.56 | 28.65 |
图1 中国社会中陌生人在社会困境中的平均合作率随时间的历史变化趋势 注:非标准化回归系数b和p值来自不加控制变量的元回归模型(模型1)。蓝线表示将对数转换回原始合作率后的模型预测值。每个数据点表示一个样本中合作率的均值, 点的大小表示该数据在回归模型中的权重, 大的点表明效应量的变异较小, 在回归模型中所占的权重也越大。灰色区域表示合作率的模型预测值的90%的置信区间。
社会指标 | 10年前 | 5年前 | 当年 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b | β | b | β | b | β | |
经济状况 | ||||||
人均GDP | 0.20** | 0.16 | 0.17** | 0.16 | 0.19* | 0.14 |
社会保障率 | 4.12** | 0.17 | 2.35** | 0.17 | 1.82** | 0.16 |
城市化率 | 0.02** | 0.16 | 0.02** | 0.16 | 0.02** | 0.16 |
社会人口流动/关系流动 | ||||||
人户分离人口比例 | 7.06*** | 0.25 | 2.33*** | 0.21 | 2.32** | 0.19 |
第三产业人员比例 | 3.99** | 0.19 | 2.89** | 0.15 | 2.12** | 0.18 |
居民平均出游人次 | 0.35** | 0.16 | 0.16** | 0.16 | 0.10** | 0.16 |
社会联结 | ||||||
独居人口比例 | 7.53** | 0.20 | 4.47** | 0.21 | 2.97* | 0.13 |
粗离婚率 | 0.37** | 0.18 | 0.19** | 0.16 | 0.16** | 0.16 |
高等教育水平 | 0.19** | 0.17 | 0.21* | 0.12 | 0.48* | 0.13 |
互联网普及率 | 1.24* | 0.14 | 0.69** | 0.18 | 0.55* | 0.14 |
表3 社会指标与合作行为之间的关系
社会指标 | 10年前 | 5年前 | 当年 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b | β | b | β | b | β | |
经济状况 | ||||||
人均GDP | 0.20** | 0.16 | 0.17** | 0.16 | 0.19* | 0.14 |
社会保障率 | 4.12** | 0.17 | 2.35** | 0.17 | 1.82** | 0.16 |
城市化率 | 0.02** | 0.16 | 0.02** | 0.16 | 0.02** | 0.16 |
社会人口流动/关系流动 | ||||||
人户分离人口比例 | 7.06*** | 0.25 | 2.33*** | 0.21 | 2.32** | 0.19 |
第三产业人员比例 | 3.99** | 0.19 | 2.89** | 0.15 | 2.12** | 0.18 |
居民平均出游人次 | 0.35** | 0.16 | 0.16** | 0.16 | 0.10** | 0.16 |
社会联结 | ||||||
独居人口比例 | 7.53** | 0.20 | 4.47** | 0.21 | 2.97* | 0.13 |
粗离婚率 | 0.37** | 0.18 | 0.19** | 0.16 | 0.16** | 0.16 |
高等教育水平 | 0.19** | 0.17 | 0.21* | 0.12 | 0.48* | 0.13 |
互联网普及率 | 1.24* | 0.14 | 0.69** | 0.18 | 0.55* | 0.14 |
(注: 纳入元分析的文献较多, 此处未列出, 详细的文献列表请访问https://osf.io/hxguw/) | |
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