心理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 994-1015.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2023.00994
收稿日期:
2022-02-13
发布日期:
2023-03-06
出版日期:
2023-06-25
通讯作者:
李纾
E-mail:lishu@psych.ac.cn
基金资助:
HUANG Yuanna1,2, JIANG Chengming3, LIU Hongzhi4, LI Shu2,5()
Received:
2022-02-13
Online:
2023-03-06
Published:
2023-06-25
摘要:
如何处理概率、时间、距离这类“虚构”信息以达成风险、跨期、空间决策或是人类在与其他物种竞争中胜出的独有能力。我们设计了2个研究探究人们是采用3种领域独特性的决策策略, 还是统一采用一种连贯的、领域一般性的决策策略做出选择。研究1借助眼动追踪技术, 在整体层面发现个体在3种决策领域(风险、跨期、空间)中均表现出主要基于维度的眼跳模式; 在个体层面发现绝大多数参与者被划分为基于维度的决策者, 且我们构建的维度间注视时长差值和维度间眼跳次数的差值可以显著预测选择结果的变化, 为维度性的选择策略提供了支持性证据。研究2借助“直观模拟天平”发现, 个体在3种领域中均通过齐当别理论所假设的“维度间差异比较”策略来达成选择。两个研究表明“以虚对实” (不同量纲比较)策略比“化虚为实” (加权求和)策略能更好地预测人们的选择结果, 因此也更像是人们在3种不同决策领域中所使用的统一连贯策略。本研究的结果抑或能为今后3种决策领域的统一数学建模提供理论基础。
中图分类号:
黄元娜, 江程铭, 刘洪志, 李纾. (2023). 风险、跨期和空间决策的决策策略共享:眼动和主观判断的证据. 心理学报, 55(6), 994-1015.
HUANG Yuanna, JIANG Chengming, LIU Hongzhi, LI Shu. (2023). Toward a coherent understanding of risky, intertemporal, and spatial choices: Evidence from eye-tracking and subjective evaluation. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 55(6), 994-1015.
风险决策 | 跨期决策 | 空间决策 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
选择结果 | 天平评分 | 选择结果 | 天平评分 | 选择结果 | 天平评分 | ||||||||
计算难度 | 参数 | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD |
低 | 第一对 | 4.66(B) | 1.35 | 3.22 | 1.69 | 4.94(B) | 1.58 | 2.60 | 2.15 | 3.13(A) | 1.83 | 4.05 | 2.13 |
第二对 | 1.67(C) | 1.2 | 5.23 | 2.32 | 1.57(C) | 1.18 | 5.32 | 2.26 | 1.34(C) | 1.02 | 5.67 | 2.08 | |
高 | 第一对 | 4.85(B) | 1.37 | 3.09 | 1.55 | 5.41(B) | 1.12 | 2.36 | 2.17 | 3.01(A) | 1.95 | 4.30 | 2.21 |
第二对 | 1.96(C) | 1.51 | 5.25 | 2.06 | 2.12(C) | 1.66 | 4.88 | 2.28 | 1.50(C) | 1.28 | 5.52 | 2.27 |
表1 三种决策领域选择结果的描述性统计
风险决策 | 跨期决策 | 空间决策 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
选择结果 | 天平评分 | 选择结果 | 天平评分 | 选择结果 | 天平评分 | ||||||||
计算难度 | 参数 | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD | M | SD |
低 | 第一对 | 4.66(B) | 1.35 | 3.22 | 1.69 | 4.94(B) | 1.58 | 2.60 | 2.15 | 3.13(A) | 1.83 | 4.05 | 2.13 |
第二对 | 1.67(C) | 1.2 | 5.23 | 2.32 | 1.57(C) | 1.18 | 5.32 | 2.26 | 1.34(C) | 1.02 | 5.67 | 2.08 | |
高 | 第一对 | 4.85(B) | 1.37 | 3.09 | 1.55 | 5.41(B) | 1.12 | 2.36 | 2.17 | 3.01(A) | 1.95 | 4.30 | 2.21 |
第二对 | 1.96(C) | 1.51 | 5.25 | 2.06 | 2.12(C) | 1.66 | 4.88 | 2.28 | 1.50(C) | 1.28 | 5.52 | 2.27 |
低计算难度任务 | 高计算难度任务 | ||
---|---|---|---|
风险决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 45%) B:(3, 000元, 90%) | A: (9, 500元, 65%) B: (6, 500元, 95%) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 0.1%) D: (3, 000元, 0.2%) | C: (9, 500元, 0.65%) D: (6, 500元, 0.85%) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 36%) D: (3, 000元, 72%) | C: (9, 500元, 58%) D: (6, 500元, 85%) | |
跨期决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 20年) B: (3, 000元, 10年) | A: (9, 500元, 30年) B: (6, 500元, 10年) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 20 天) D: (3, 000元, 10 天) | C: (9, 500元, 30天) D: (6, 500元, 10天) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 16 年) D: (3, 000元, 8 年) | C: (9, 500元, 27年) D: (6, 500元, 9年) | |
空间决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 1, 800公里) B: (3, 000元, 900公里) | A: (9, 500元, 600公里) B: (6, 500元, 200公里) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 4公里) D: (3, 000元, 2公里) | C: (9, 500元, 3公里) D: (6, 500元, 1公里) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 1, 440公里) D: (3, 000元, 720公里) | C: (9, 500元, 540公里) D: (6, 500元, 180公里) |
附表1 研究2实验参数
低计算难度任务 | 高计算难度任务 | ||
---|---|---|---|
风险决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 45%) B:(3, 000元, 90%) | A: (9, 500元, 65%) B: (6, 500元, 95%) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 0.1%) D: (3, 000元, 0.2%) | C: (9, 500元, 0.65%) D: (6, 500元, 0.85%) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 36%) D: (3, 000元, 72%) | C: (9, 500元, 58%) D: (6, 500元, 85%) | |
跨期决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 20年) B: (3, 000元, 10年) | A: (9, 500元, 30年) B: (6, 500元, 10年) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 20 天) D: (3, 000元, 10 天) | C: (9, 500元, 30天) D: (6, 500元, 10天) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 16 年) D: (3, 000元, 8 年) | C: (9, 500元, 27年) D: (6, 500元, 9年) | |
空间决策 | 第一对 | A: (6, 000元, 1, 800公里) B: (3, 000元, 900公里) | A: (9, 500元, 600公里) B: (6, 500元, 200公里) |
第二对 | C: (6, 000元, 4公里) D: (3, 000元, 2公里) | C: (9, 500元, 3公里) D: (6, 500元, 1公里) | |
第三对 | C: (6, 000元, 1, 440公里) D: (3, 000元, 720公里) | C: (9, 500元, 540公里) D: (6, 500元, 180公里) |
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