损失领域跨时间段决策的框架效应将影响债务置换决策偏好

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2026.0651

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 框架效应是违背理性决策公理的稳健现象。本研究旨在检验在损失领域跨时间段决策中是否存在框架效应, 并探讨其对债务置换政策的可能影响。研究发现：(1)对于债务到期日与总量均不变的单一方案, 不同框架显著影响债务人接受程度。相较于高频框架(如周付), 低频框架(如年付)能显著提高债务人的接受程度; (2)对于债务到期日不同但总量恒定的二择一方案, 不同描述框架显著影响债务人偏好。相较于高频框架/常规时间轴, 低频框架/压缩时间轴使债务人更倾向于接受利率高、期限短的初始债务方案。实验观察到的决策偏好符合“图形编辑的齐当别模型” (The Graph-edited Equate-to-differentiate Model)的预测。本研究开启了对损失领域跨时间段决策的理解, 为“时间助推工具箱”提供了新工具, 并为债务置换政策评估和债务管理优化提供了心理科学支撑。

关键词: 债务置换, 损失领域, 跨时间段决策, 框架效应, 助推

Abstract: The framing effect emerges as one of the most robust effects among effects that violate rational axioms. This study focuses on two innovative research directions. First, on a theoretical level, it explores whether the framing effect exists in cross-period temporal choice in the loss domain, which has not been empirically studied before. Second, on a practical level, it examines how to use this effect to optimize the implementation of the debt swap policy proposed in the “Local Government Debt Risk Resolution Plan” passed by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in 2024.
Online participants were recruited through a survey platform to complete preference evaluation tasks that consisted of five studies. Study 1a (N = 1200) employed a 2 (repayment frequency: annual vs. monthly) × 2 (presentation format: text vs. graphic) between-subjects design. Study 1b (N = 403) used a mixed design with 3 (repayment frequency: annual vs. monthly vs. weekly, within-subject) × 2 (presentation format: text vs. graphic, between-subjects). Study 2a (N = 900) utilized a one-factor (condition: monthly, annual vs. compressed) between-subjects design. The first experiment in Study 2b (N = 180) adopted a within-subject design (repayment frequency: monthly vs. weekly), while the second experiment (N = 180) used a within-subject design (compression condition: normal vs. compressed). In the within-subject designs, evaluations under different conditions were separated by at least a three-day interval. The task in Study 1 required participants to rate their acceptance of a single debt repayment plan under different conditions. Meanwhile, the task in Study 2 involved participants rating their acceptance of paired debt plans (initial debt vs. swapped debt) under different conditions.
The findings are as follows: First, different descriptions of a single debt plan, where both the debt maturity and the total amount of debt remain unchanged can trigger the framing effect. Whether presented in textual or graphical format, the framing of repayment plans with different frequencies significantly influences debtors’ acceptance of the repayment plan. Compared with the high-frequency frame that “appears to last longer” (e.g., weekly payments), the low-frequency frame that “appears to last shorter” (e.g., annual payments) enhances debtors’ acceptance of a debt plan where the maturity and the total amount remain unchanged. Second, even without changing the basic facts, varying descriptions can generate framing effects for a choice between two debt-repayment schemes where “the debt maturity is different but the total debt remains constant.” Different frames (e.g., monthly payments vs. annual payments, conventional timeline vs. compressed timeline) significantly affect debtors’ preferences for the two options (initial debt vs. swapped debt). Compared with the monthly payment frame/conventional timeline frame, the annual payment frame/compressed timeline frame makes debtors more inclined to accept the initial debt plan.
Participants’ exhibited preferences in the loss domain across different debt repayment time frames align with the explanation and prediction of the equate-to-differentiate way of seeing cross-period temporal choices. We hope that our findings on the exploration of framing effects can expand our understanding of cross-period temporal choices, add a tool to the “time nudge toolbox, ” and provide psychological science support for evaluating the effectiveness of the policy measure of “debt swapping” and optimizing debt management.

Key words: debt swap, loss domain, cross-period temporal choice, framing effect, nudge

马家涛, 李纾, 何贵兵. (2026). 损失领域跨时间段决策的框架效应将影响债务置换决策偏好. 心理学报, 58(4), 651-666.

MA Jia-Tao, LI Shu, HE Guibing. (2026). The framing effect of cross-period temporal choice in the loss domain will influence the preference for debt-swapping decisions. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 58(4), 651-666.

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