对他人生育态度和行为的低估抑制了Z世代未生育个体的生育意愿

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2024.00759

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

个体的生育意愿不仅受到各种宏微观客观因素的影响, 同样也受到个体对他人生育态度/行为主观感知的影响。研究1 (N = 904)显示, 个体通常低估了他人的生育态度和行为, 而这一低估反过来抑制了自身的生育意愿。研究2a (N = 210)和2b (N = 210)通过操纵被试的主观感知验证了对他人生育态度/行为的低估与自身生育意愿之间的因果关系。研究3 (N = 220)的结果显示, 生育效能和责任感知可较好地解释上述发现, 其中生育效能的作用更大。研究4的元分析(N = 1544)表明, 个体对他人生育态度/行为的低估以及这种低估对自身生育意愿的影响均具有小到中等的效应量。上述结果表明, 运用社会规范方法来纠正人们的错误认知从而提升生育意愿可为现有政策提供额外助力。

关键词: 生育意愿, 社交影响, 主体间认知, 生育效能, 责任感知

Abstract:

The existing literature on fertility has predominantly focused on analyzing objective factors at macro and micro levels, such as gender, age, income, family relationships, economic situation, and social structure, that impact an individual’s fertility intentions. However, an often overlooked yet equally significant factor lies in an individual’s perception of the social climate surrounding fertility. This factor encompasses attitudes and behaviors related to fertility displayed by similar others. This article presents five studies from a social cognitive perspective aimed at addressing the following questions: (1) How do individuals perceive the fertility attitudes and behaviors of others? (2) To what extent and in what manner does this perception influence an individual’s own fertility intentions? (3) How can we explain this relationship? This paper presents a comprehensive investigation comprising five studies that focus on individuals born between 1995 and 2005. In Studies 2a, 2b, and 3, we specifically targeted childless individuals. The key variables under examination included perceptions of fertility attitudes, operationalized as individuals’ judgments of the desired family size; perceptions of fertility behaviors, proxied by individuals’ judgments of the magnitude of change in China’s total fertility rate from 2021 to 2022; and fertility intentions, measured using a scale developed by the researchers. Study 1 involved a cross-sectional survey with 904 participants, of which 735 had never given birth. The primary aim of Study 1 was to gain initial insights into how individuals perceive the attitudes/behaviors of others and how these perceptions relate to their own fertility intentions. Studies 2a and 2b utilized experimental designs to establish a causal relationship between the perception of others’ fertility attitudes/behaviors and one’s own fertility intentions. In contrast, Study 3, a three-round longitudinal survey, sought to investigate whether fertility efficacy and perceived responsibility could explain the observed relationships. Lastly, Study 4 represents a single-paper meta-analysis that focuses on effect sizes for the key findings derived from the studies in this paper. The main results can be summarized as follows: (1) Childless participants consistently displayed a tendency to underestimate others’ fertility attitudes/behaviors, whereas participants who had given birth in Study 1 exhibited an overly optimistic view of others’ fertility attitudes/behaviors. (2) The underestimation of others’ fertility attitudes/behaviors had a consistent suppressive effect on participants’ own fertility intentions. (3) Overly pessimistic views of others’ fertility attitudes/behaviors significantly reduced participants’ fertility efficacy in successfully pursuing fertility, as well as their perception of fertility as a family and social responsibility. Both of these factors, in turn, contributed to a reduction in fertility intentions, with the effect of fertility efficacy being more pronounced. (4) Notably, all key findings exhibited effect sizes ranging from small to moderate, highlighting the nuanced nature of these relationships. The above findings have significant theoretical and practical implications. Firstly, the results suggest that perceptions of the social climate regarding fertility play a crucial role in an individual’s fertility decisions. Consequently, solely focusing on objective factors may not yield a comprehensive understanding of the intricate processes influencing fertility decisions, thereby bridging a gap in the existing literature. Secondly, the findings imply that a social norms approach can effectively address biased perceptions of others’ attitudes/behaviors toward fertility. By doing so, this approach contributes to bolstering fertility intentions, presenting a valuable complement to current policies that primarily emphasize economic factors.

Key words: fertility intentions, social influence, intersubjective cognition, fertility efficacy, perceived responsibility

中图分类号:

B849: C91

陈思静, 沈家辉, 姜侨桀, 杨莎莎. (2024). 对他人生育态度和行为的低估抑制了Z世代未生育个体的生育意愿. 心理学报, 56(6), 759-776.

CHEN Sijing, SHEN Jiahui, JIANG Qiaojie, YANG Shasha. (2024). Underestimating others’ fertility attitudes and behaviors hinders the fertility intentions of childless individuals in Gen Z. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 56(6), 759-776.

图/表 12

参考文献 109

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样本	版本	χ²	df	χ²/df	CFI	TLI	RMSEA	SRMR
未生育	修订前	128.83	14	9.20	0.980	0.970	0.106	0.017
未生育	修订后	36.42	9	4.05	0.994	0.991	0.064	0.009
已生育	修订前	32.46	14	2.32	0.982	0.973	0.088	0.020
已生育	修订后	13.20	9	1.47	0.995	0.991	0.053	0.016

样本	版本	χ²	df	χ²/df	CFI	TLI	RMSEA	SRMR
未生育	修订前	128.83	14	9.20	0.980	0.970	0.106	0.017
未生育	修订后	36.42	9	4.05	0.994	0.991	0.064	0.009
已生育	修订前	32.46	14	2.32	0.982	0.973	0.088	0.020
已生育	修订后	13.20	9	1.47	0.995	0.991	0.053	0.016

变量	M	SD	1	2	3	4
1 理想子女数(自身)	1.80	0.54
2 理想子女数(他人)	1.71	0.53	0.44^*** [0.38, 0.50]
3 总和生育率变化幅度	-10.92	16.46	0.19^*** [0.13, 0.25]	0.19^*** [0.13, 0.25]
4 生育意愿(未生育)	3.65	1.07	0.35^*** [0.28, 0.42]	0.22^*** [0.14, 0.29]	0.24^*** [0.16, 0.31]
5 生育意愿(已生育)	3.99	0.92	0.32^*** [0.15, 0.48]	0.14 [−0.08, 0.33]	0.26^*** [0.13, 0.37]	—

变量	M	SD	1	2	3	4
1 理想子女数(自身)	1.80	0.54
2 理想子女数(他人)	1.71	0.53	0.44^*** [0.38, 0.50]
3 总和生育率变化幅度	-10.92	16.46	0.19^*** [0.13, 0.25]	0.19^*** [0.13, 0.25]
4 生育意愿(未生育)	3.65	1.07	0.35^*** [0.28, 0.42]	0.22^*** [0.14, 0.29]	0.24^*** [0.16, 0.31]
5 生育意愿(已生育)	3.99	0.92	0.32^*** [0.15, 0.48]	0.14 [−0.08, 0.33]	0.26^*** [0.13, 0.37]	—

变量	结果变量: 生育意愿(未生育)				结果变量: 生育意愿(已生育)
变量	β	t	LLCI	ULCI	β	t	LLCI	ULCI
预测变量
理想子女数(他人)	0.15^***	4.57	0.17	0.43	0.08	0.97	−0.19	0.56
总和生育率变化幅度	0.17^***	4.99	0.01	0.02	0.24^**	3.06	0.005	0.02
控制变量
性别	−0.23^***	−6.74	−0.69	−0.38	−0.08	−1.10	−0.44	0.13
年龄	0.04	0.96	−0.02	0.05	−0.02	−0.22	−0.11	0.09
教育程度	−0.06	−1.90	−0.25	0.004	0.06	0.70	−0.17	0.36
年收入	0.01	0.33	−0.08	0.11	0.06	0.75	−0.08	0.19
恋爱	0.19^***	5.44	0.26	0.56	0.06	0.56	−0.90	1.61
已婚	0.19^***	4.94	0.41	0.96	0.14	1.23	−0.35	1.53
兄弟姐妹数量	0.04	1.28	−0.03	0.12	0.15	1.94	−0.003	0.26
子女数量					−0.05	−0.62	−0.48	0.25
Adj-R²	0.21				0.07