学步期至青年期社交焦虑的发展轨迹和稳定性：一项基于纵向研究的三水平元分析

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2023.01637

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鉴于社交焦虑的高患病率和广泛的不良后效, 大量理论和纵向研究对社交焦虑的发展进行了探讨, 但观点和研究结果存在矛盾。为厘清争议, 准确刻画社交焦虑平均水平变化和稳定性的年龄趋势, 采用三水平模型的方法, 对来自173项纵向研究的192个独立样本(N = 170197)进行元分析。结果显示: (1)在平均水平上, 社交焦虑从学步期至青年期呈逐步下降趋势, 仅青春中期有小幅上升。(2)在稳定性上, 社交焦虑在学步期和学前期较高, 在小学儿童期降至低谷后逐渐回升, 青年期稳定在较高水平。(3)社交焦虑的平均水平变化不受研究特征、样本特征和变量特征的影响。(4)社交焦虑的稳定性受文章语言、大洲、文化、性别和测量方式的调节。(5)社交焦虑的稳定性随时间间隔变长呈先快后慢的下降趋势。研究首次利用元分析技术刻画了社交焦虑从学步期至青年期的发展趋势, 其中发展轨迹总体上支持了人格成熟论, 稳定上则呈现出较强的特质属性, 结果为探索社交焦虑的毕生发展和干预提供了新视角。

关键词: 社交焦虑, 平均水平变化, 稳定性, 纵向研究, 三水平元分析

Abstract:

Given the high prevalence and its extensive possible adverse outcomes, a large number of theoretical and longitudinal studies have explored the development of social anxiety, but the research findings are inconsistent or even contradictory in preschool childhood, late childhood, and adolescence. In addition, there is still debate between trait theory and state theory of social anxiety, and there is also a lack of study on the age trend of social anxiety stability.

To clarify the above controversies and accurately characterize the age trend of the mean level and the stability of social anxiety, this study conducted a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies involving social anxiety. After pre-registering the study protocol on PROSPERO, we searched literature in six databases (CNKI, Wanfang Data, Web of Science, ProQuest, PubMed, and EBOSCO). In addition, we also backtracked the references cited in previous meta-analyses and reviews. Ultimately, a total of 192 independent samples (N = 170, 192) from 173 longitudinal studies were included in the current meta-analysis. In order to quantify the trajectory of social anxiety more precisely, we divided the sample into 11 age groups according to the mean age of the sample between two adjacent measurement waves, and estimated the mean-level change and stability for each age group. The standardized mean difference (d) between two adjacent waves is used to estimate mean-level change, whereas the correlation coefficient (r) is used to estimate stability. Science most of the included studies reported multiple effect sizes, and these multiple effect sizes were most likely dependent, which violated the basic assumption of independent effect sizes in the conventional meta-analytic methods. We applied the three-level meta-analysis approach to handle such data-independency among effect sizes.

Results showed that: (1) The mean level of social anxiety showed a gradual decline from toddlerhood to young adulthood, with only slight increase in mid-adolescence. (2) In terms of rank-order stability, social anxiety rose slowly from toddlerhood to preschool childhood, then swiftly dropped to a low point in elementary childhood, recovered gradually after mid-adolescence, and stabilized at a high level in young adulthood. (3) The mean-level change of social anxiety was not affected by the study characteristics, the sample characteristics, and the variable characteristics. (4) The rank-order stability of social anxiety was moderated by written language, continent, culture, gender, and assessment mode. (5) The stability of social anxiety was a logarithmic function with time lag. Specifically, with the increase of time lag, the stability declined first quickly and then slowly, and almost reached a plateau after 6 years. (6) The results of moderator test for publication status, Egger's test, and Begg's test indicated the absence of publication bias in this meta-analysis.

This study makes a valuable contribution in characterizing the age-specific trends and stability of social anxiety from toddler to young adult by using the meta-analytic method. We conclude from this study that, in terms of mean level, the trajectory of social anxiety generally supports the personality maturation hypothesis. For stability, similar to personality traits, social anxiety tend to be a trait rather than a state construct. Overall, this study provides a new perspective for exploring the lifelong development of social anxiety.

Key words: social anxiety, mean-level change, rank-order stability, longitudinal studies, three-level meta-analysis

中图分类号:

B844

陈必忠, 黄璇, 牛更枫, 孙晓军, 蔡志慧. (2023). 学步期至青年期社交焦虑的发展轨迹和稳定性：一项基于纵向研究的三水平元分析. 心理学报, 55(10), 1637-1652.

CHEN Bizhong, HUANG Xuan, NIU Gengfeng, SUN Xiaojun, CAI Zhihui. (2023). Developmental change and stability of social anxiety from toddlerhood to young adulthood: A three-level meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 55(10), 1637-1652.

图/表 9

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研究信息	M/K	Min	Max	SD	%
男性比(%)	46.35	0	1	12.72
出生年代	1997.30	1970	2015	8.40
所属大洲
北美洲	89				40.27
欧洲	59				26.70
亚洲	65				29.42
大洋洲	8				3.62
社交焦虑类型
认知	17				7.69
情感	65				29.42
行为	20				9.05
类特质	42				19.00
一般/混合	77				34.84
测量方式
自我报告	173				78.28
他人报告	48				21.72
测量波段	2.71	2	13	1.38
总时间间隔(年)	2.06	0.5	19	2.54
发表状态
已发表	186				84.16
未发表	35				15.84
文章语言
中文	49				22.17
英文	172				77.83
发表年代	2015.73	1992	2022	6.09

研究信息	M/K	Min	Max	SD	%
男性比(%)	46.35	0	1	12.72
出生年代	1997.30	1970	2015	8.40
所属大洲
北美洲	89				40.27
欧洲	59				26.70
亚洲	65				29.42
大洋洲	8				3.62
社交焦虑类型
认知	17				7.69
情感	65				29.42
行为	20				9.05
类特质	42				19.00
一般/混合	77				34.84
测量方式
自我报告	173				78.28
他人报告	48				21.72
测量波段	2.71	2	13	1.38
总时间间隔(年)	2.06	0.5	19	2.54
发表状态
已发表	186				84.16
未发表	35				15.84
文章语言
中文	49				22.17
英文	172				77.83
发表年代	2015.73	1992	2022	6.09

年龄组(岁)	水平变化				稳定性
	Egger线性回归法		Begg秩相关法		Egger线性回归法		Begg秩相关法
	截距	p	τ	p	截距	p	τ	p
1~3	−4.56	0.010	−0.60	0.136	0.39	0.674	−0.05	1.000
3~6	−1.84	0.179	−0.24	0.159	−3.79	0.027	0.22	0.209
6~8	−2.16	0.349	−0.14	0.487	3.12	0.597	0.11	0.652
8~10	1.09	0.446	0.07	0.607	0.47	0.789	0.28	0.135
10~12	−1.19	0.162	−0.01	0.925	0.37	0.694	0.05	0.653
12~14	−2.92	0.146	−0.07	0.308	1.73	0.263	−0.10	0.257
14~16	1.37	0.286	0.08	0.350	4.50	0.022	−0.11	0.315
16~18	−1.49	0.639	−0.12	0.501	−3.07	0.584	−0.05	0.856
18~20	−3.25	0.278	−0.14	0.326	9.70	<0.001	0.25	0.126
20~25	2.58	0.204	−0.08	0.624	8.48	<0.001	0.07	0.692
25~35	0.28	0.169	1.00	0.042	−4.23	0.259	−0.53	0.207
所有效应量	−1.01	0.091	−0.09	0.018	0.88	0.168	0.02	0.678

年龄组(岁)	水平变化				稳定性
	Egger线性回归法		Begg秩相关法		Egger线性回归法		Begg秩相关法
	截距	p	τ	p	截距	p	τ	p
1~3	−4.56	0.010	−0.60	0.136	0.39	0.674	−0.05	1.000
3~6	−1.84	0.179	−0.24	0.159	−3.79	0.027	0.22	0.209
6~8	−2.16	0.349	−0.14	0.487	3.12	0.597	0.11	0.652
8~10	1.09	0.446	0.07	0.607	0.47	0.789	0.28	0.135
10~12	−1.19	0.162	−0.01	0.925	0.37	0.694	0.05	0.653
12~14	−2.92	0.146	−0.07	0.308	1.73	0.263	−0.10	0.257
14~16	1.37	0.286	0.08	0.350	4.50	0.022	−0.11	0.315
16~18	−1.49	0.639	−0.12	0.501	−3.07	0.584	−0.05	0.856
18~20	−3.25	0.278	−0.14	0.326	9.70	<0.001	0.25	0.126
20~25	2.58	0.204	−0.08	0.624	8.48	<0.001	0.07	0.692
25~35	0.28	0.169	1.00	0.042	−4.23	0.259	−0.53	0.207
所有效应量	−1.01	0.091	−0.09	0.018	0.88	0.168	0.02	0.678

年龄组(岁)	K	N_{effect size}	出生年代		d_year	95% CI	异质性
年龄组(岁)	K	N_{effect size}	M	范围	d_year	95% CI	Q	水平2 I²	水平3 I²
1~3	6	6	2005.19	(1991, 2015)	−0.034	[−0.219, 0.151]	71.79^***	\	97.34%
3~6	14	19	1999.58	(1980, 2015)	−0.171^*	[−0.316, −0.026]	314.01^***	6.11%	93.11%
6~8	11	15	1997.95	(1980, 2011)	−0.077	[−0.172, 0.018]	132.51^***	92.85%	0
8~10	19	25	1997.65	(1980, 2008)	−0.032	[−0.113, 0.048]	564.54^***	67.15%	29.64%
10~12	42	58	1998.23	(1980, 2009)	−0.048^*	[−0.090, −0.006]	759.09^***	74.02%	20.54%
12~14	63	100	1997.33	(1977, 2007)	−0.090	[−0.215, 0.034]	6686.36^***	8.53%	90.99%
14~16	44	63	1995.04	(1980, 2006)	0.023	[−0.025, 0.070]	1027.33^***	70.22%	27.09%
16~18	12	18	1991.68	(1984, 1997)	−0.067	[−0.138, 0.004]	427.89^***	49.71%	44.92%
18~20	17	25	1995.92	(1980, 2000)	−0.128^*	[−0.250, −0.006]	950.10^***	68.88%	29.83%
20~25	13	19	1996.70	(1980, 1998)	−0.022	[−0.128, 0.083]	308.96^***	94.93%	0
25~35	3	4	1974.86	(1970, 1980)	−0.030	[−0.087, 0.027]	0.05	0	0