负期望条件下的末期效应：情绪动机诱发风险寻求

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2019.00789

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风险决策中, 末期效应指“个体在重复多轮决策任务的末尾冒险倾向升高”的现象, 但其内在机制尚不明确。三个研究的结果发现, 在实验室环境和自然环境下, 不同期望(负期望值和等期望值)条件下被试在最后一轮的投资均会显著增加, 末期效应稳定出现, 且不受到最后一轮决策前被试所拥有的代币数量的影响。即, 就算在风险选项收益更小的情况下, 被试也会倾向于在最后一轮选择高风险选项, 且这一效应是参照点独立的, 这说明末期效应的出现是源于对情绪满足感的追求。未来研究可从这一点切入, 进一步研究情绪影响风险决策过程的机制。

关键词: 末期效应, 风险决策, 参照独立, 社会情绪选择理论, 情绪动机

Abstract:

The ending effect of risky decision-making refers to the phenomenon that individuals would be more likely to take risks when a multiple-played decision-making task comes to an end. Three experiments examined the ending effect with risky decision tasks of different expected values, both in laboratory settings and in natural environment. The results showed that, the ending effect appeared in both laboratories and natural settings. Participants showed increased risk taking in the last round in both equal-expected value gambles and negative-expected value gambles. In addition, the ending effect is not moderated by the amount of tokens participants had before the last round. It appears that the ending effect is driven by the motivational need for an emotionally rewarding ending and suggests that the ending effect is reference independent. Future research on the underlying mechanism of the ending effect may benefit by focusing on affective system since it plays an important role in the ending effect.

Key words: ending effect, risky decision-making, reference independent, socioemotional selectivity theory, emotional motivation

中图分类号:

B849: C91

孟彧琦, 邢采, 刘新辉. (2019). 负期望条件下的末期效应：情绪动机诱发风险寻求. 心理科学进展 , 27(5), 789-795.

MENG Yuqi, XING Cai, LIU Xinhui. (2019). The ending effect of negative-expected value gambles: Emotional motivation induces risk taking. Advances in Psychological Science, 27(5), 789-795.

图/表 3

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研究	变量	B	t	p	95%CI	R²
研究1	最后一轮前获胜次数	-0.129	-0.387	0.704	[-0.832, 0.574]	0.008
研究1	最后一轮前持有金额	0.014	0.309	0.761	[-0.083, 0.112]	0.008
研究2	最后一轮前获胜次数	0.174	-0.677	0.507	[-0.368, 0.717]	0.078
研究2	最后一轮前持有金额	-0.044	-1.149	0.266	[-0.126, 0.037]	0.078

研究	变量	B	t	p	95%CI	R²
研究1	最后一轮前获胜次数	-0.129	-0.387	0.704	[-0.832, 0.574]	0.008
研究1	最后一轮前持有金额	0.014	0.309	0.761	[-0.083, 0.112]	0.008
研究2	最后一轮前获胜次数	0.174	-0.677	0.507	[-0.368, 0.717]	0.078
研究2	最后一轮前持有金额	-0.044	-1.149	0.266	[-0.126, 0.037]	0.078