前瞻性情绪作为社会风险的信息源假说：公共场景下风险决策的情绪及文化机制探讨

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2021.00959

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究从梳理决策的情绪理论入手, 在综合几种主要理论的基础上提出了“前瞻性情绪作为社会风险信息源”的假说。前瞻性情绪是在决策过程中产生的, 由于对决策选择的预期而感受到的, 进而影响决策行为的情绪。社会环境下的风险事件具有突发和稍纵即逝的特征, 如果一个公民对这类风险事件做出反应, 其结果的概率难于量化。在这种情况下, 前瞻性情绪能够为决策者快速提供有关信息, 并形成对决策预期结果严重性和可能性的综合表征, 从而成为公众场景下风险决策的有效线索。不同前瞻性情绪的组合在面对社会性风险事件时具有针对性的作用。近年来在文化比较中对于面子、荣誉和尊严文化的划分, 也为我们研究文化的情绪特征和行为效应提供了理论框架。本研究拟通过四项研究和多个实验探讨前瞻性情绪如何影响公众场景下人们的风险应对行为, 并对三种文化的情绪特征进行比较, 探索情绪性决策中个人因素、群体因素、及文化因素如何共同决定公共场景下风险决策(如亲社会行为或反社会行为)的发生与发展, 同时也期望为公共政策的制定及风险管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 前瞻性情绪, 风险决策, 风险管理, 公共事件, 社会规范, 文化差异

Abstract:

This research project explores the emotional mechanisms underlying prosocial and antisocial behaviors in public arenas. By synthesizing several influential theories concerning the roles of emotions in decision-making, we developed a hypothesis of anticipatory emotions as an information source for social risks. We define anticipatory emotions as any discrete emotions that are induced from anticipating expected choice outcomes and felt at the time of decision-making, and in turn, regulate the decision behavior. Risky events in social and public contexts are characterized by their destructive, emergent, transient, and unpredictable nature. Thus, the reactions to these risky events need to be quick and unambiguous. However, the probabilities of possible consequences associated with these reactions are usually hard to reckon with. Under such conditions, anticipatory emotions provide a prompt and overall risk assessment as a substitute for expected utility, reflecting both the likelihood and severity of expected choice outcomes. We view anticipatory emotions as mental representations of social risks. We predict that different profiles of anticipatory emotions collectively distinguish different types of social risks. Moreover, the combinations of anticipatory emotions are culturally specific. The more recent categorization of the face, dignity, and honor cultures allows us to make predictions about the emotional characteristics of each culture. Overall, the proposed four studies with multiple experiments will examine how anticipatory emotions influence reactions to public risks. We explore how dispositional, social, and cultural factors regulate prosocial and antisocial behaviors. The results of these studies will benefit the research in risk management, public policymaking, and provide scientific support to public education, counseling, and civil service training.

Key words: anticipatory emotions, risky decision, risk management, public events, social norms, cultural differences

中图分类号:

B849: C91

王晓田, 王娜, 何金波. (2021). 前瞻性情绪作为社会风险的信息源假说：公共场景下风险决策的情绪及文化机制探讨. 心理科学进展 , 29(6), 959-966.

WANG X.T. (XiaoTian), WANG Na, HE Jinbo. (2021). The hypothesis of anticipatory emotions as information for social risks: Examining emotional and cultural mechanisms of risky decisions in public. Advances in Psychological Science, 29(6), 959-966.

图/表 1

参考文献 40

[1]	王晓田. (2013). 决策的三个参照点. 中欧商业评论, 11, 32-37.
[2]	王晓田, 王鹏. (2013). 决策的三参照点理论:从原理到应用. 心理科学进展, 21(8), 1-16.
[3]	Armony, J. L., Servan-Schreiber, D., Cohen, J. D., & LeDoux, J. E. (1997). Computational modeling of emotion: Explorations through the anatomy and physiology of fear conditioning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1(1), 28-34. doi: 10.1016/S1364-6613(97)01007-3 URL
[4]	Bechara, A., Damasio, H., Tranel, D., & Damasio, A. R. (1997). Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science, 275(5304), 1293-1295. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5304.1293 URL
[5]	Bell, D. E. (1985). Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 33(1), 1-27. doi: 10.1287/opre.33.1.1 URL
[6]	Bleichrodt, H., & Wakker, P. P. (2015). Regret theory: A bold alternative to the alternatives. The Economic Journal, 125(583), 493-532. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12200 URL
[7]	Clore, G. L., & Huntsinger, J. R. (2007). How emotions inform judgment and regulate thought. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 11(9), 393-399. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2007.08.005 URL
[8]	Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descartes' error and the future of human life. Scientific American, 271(4), 144. pmid: 7939563
[9]	Damasio, A. R. (1996). The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible functions of the prefrontal cortex. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 351(1346),1413-1420.
[10]	Dionne, S. D., Gooty, J., Yammarino, F. J., & Sayama, H. (2018). Decision making in crisis: A multilevel model of the interplay between cognitions and emotions. Organizational Psychology Review, 8(2-3),95-124.
[11]	Eysenck, M. W. (1992). Anxiety: The cognitive perspective. Hove, England: Erlbarm.
[12]	Faraji-Rad, A., & Pham, M. T. (2017). Uncertainty increases the reliance on affect in decisions. Journal of Consumer Research, 44(1), 1-21.
[13]	Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1), 1-17. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1099-0771 URL
[14]	Gelfand, M. J., Raver, J. L., Nishii, L., Leslie, L. M., Lun, J., Lim, B. C., ... Yamaguchi, S. (2011). Differences between tight and loose cultures: A 33-nation study. Science, 332(6033), 1100-1104. doi: 10.1126/science.1197754 URL
[15]	Gigerenzer, G. (2014). Risk Savvy: How to make good decisions. London: Penguin Books.
[16]	Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Reviewer of Psychology, 62(1), 451-482.
[17]	Goleman, D. (2006). Emotional intelligence. New York: Bantam.
[18]	Halevy, N., & Katz, J. J. (2013). Conflict templates: Thinking through interdependence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 22(3), 217-224. doi: 10.1177/0963721412474296 URL
[19]	Hare, R. D. (1965). Psychopathy, fear arousal and anticipated pain. Psychological Reports, 16, 499-502. doi: 10.2466/pr0.1965.16.2.499 URL
[20]	Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. doi: 10.2307/1914185 URL
[21]	Korsgaard, M. A., Jeong, S. S., Mahony, D. M., & Pitariu, A. H. (2008). A multilevel view of intragroup conflict. Journal of Management, 34(6), 1222-1252. doi: 10.1177/0149206308325124 URL
[22]	LeDoux, J. (1996). The emotional brain. New York: Simon, Schuster.
[23]	Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. (2000). Beyond valence: Toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice. Cognition & Emotion, 14(4), 473-493.
[24]	Leung, A. K. Y., & Cohen, D. (2011). Within-and between- culture variation: Individual differences and the cultural logics of honor, face, and dignity cultures. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 507-522. doi: 10.1037/a0022151 URL
[25]	Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127(2), 267-286. pmid: 11316014
[26]	Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1986). Disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty. The Review of Economic Studies, 53(2), 271-282. doi: 10.2307/2297651 URL
[27]	Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., Ho, K., & Ritov, I. (1997). Decision affect theory: Emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychological Science, 8(6), 423-429. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.1997.tb00455.x URL
[28]	Mesquita, B., & Leu, J. (2007). The cultural psychology of emotion. Handbook of cultural psychology (pp.734-759). New York, NY: Guilford Press.
[29]	Munezero, M. D., Montero, C. S., Sutinen, E., & Pajunen, J. (2014). Are they different? Affect, feeling, emotion, sentiment, and opinion detection in text. IEEE Transactions on Affective Computing, 5(2), 101-111. doi: 10.1109/T-AFFC.5165369 URL
[30]	Patrick, C. J. (1994). Emotion and psychopathy: Startling new insights. Psychophysiology, 31(4), 415-428.
[31]	Raghunathan, R., & Pham, M. T. (1999). All negative moods are not equal: Motivational influences of anxiety and sadness on decision making. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 79(1), 56-77.
[32]	Schwarz, N. (1990). Feelings as information: Information and motivational function of affective states. In E. T. Higgins & R. M. Sorrentino (Eds.), Handbook of motivation and cognition (Vol. 2, pp. 527-561). New York: Guilford.
[33]	Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2007). The affect heuristic. European Journal of Operational Research, 177(3), 1333-1352. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.006 URL
[34]	Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (2001). Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: The effects of specific emotions on information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81(6), 973-988.
[35]	van Kleef, G. A. (2009). How emotions regulate social life: The emotions as social information (EASI) model. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 18(3), 184-188. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8721.2009.01633.x URL
[36]	van Kleef, G. A., de Dreu, C. K., & Manstead, A. S. R. (2004). The interpersonal effects of emotions in negotiations: A motivated information processing approach. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87(4), 510-528. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.87.4.510 URL
[37]	von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of games and economic behavior (2^nd rev.). Princeton, NJ, US: Princeton University Press.
[38]	Wang, X. T. (2006) Emotions within reason: Resolving conflicts in risk preference. Cognition and Emotion, 20(8), 1132-1152. doi: 10.1080/02699930500387428 URL
[39]	Wang, X. T., & Johnson, G. J. (2012). A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 141(4), 743-756. doi: 10.1037/a0027415 URL
[40]	Wilson, T. D., & Schooler, J. W. (1991). Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60(2), 181-192.