关键词: 犯罪, 跨期决策, 风险倾向, 死亡思考, 主观寿命预期, 零结果敏感度

Abstract: Criminal behavior poses a substantial burden on society, necessitating a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes within incarcerated populations for effective prevention and rehabilitation. This study investigated the differences in intertemporal decision-making, risk propensity, death awareness, subjective life expectancy, and tolerance for expected zero returns between inmates and the general population. We hypothesize that inmates would exhibit a stronger preference for immediate rewards, higher risk propensity in specific decision domains, weaker death awareness, and lower subjective life expectancy compared to the general population controls. We also proposed and explored a novel concept of “zero-outcome sensitivity” as a new index of impulsivity distinguishing inmates and the general population in intertemporal decision-making.
This research comprised three interrelated studies. Study 1 compared intertemporal decision-related variables between inmates and an age-and-gender matched control group recruited from the general population. Participants completed questionnaires and tasks to measure their intertemporal choice preferences between immediate versus delayed rewards, risk propensities across task domains (recreational, safety control, moral, financial, sexual reproduction, and social competition), death awareness, and subjective life expectancy. Study 2 focused on the impact of expected zero returns on decision-making, presenting participants with scenarios that emphasized the potential for a zero gain. Study 3 constructed a moderated mediation model for inmate and control groups, incorporating thoughts about death, subjective life expectancy, risk propensity, zero-outcome sensitivity and delay discounting patterns. The analyses of the results were controlled for demographic factors such as gender, age, educational level, and criminal background in the inmate group.
The findings revealed that inmates demonstrated a significantly stronger preference for immediate rewards than the general population. Regarding risk propensity, inmates exhibited higher risk-taking tendencies in recreational, safety control, moral, social competition, and sexual reproduction domains but lower risk propensity in the financial domain. Furthermore, inmates reported lower death awareness and subjective life expectancy. Notably, inmates displayed a heightened sensitivity to and lower tolerance for scenarios involving expected zero returns, which intensified their preference for immediate gratification. The moderated mediation model in Study 3 indicated a complex, non-linear relationship between death awareness and subjective life expectancy, with risk-taking propensity as a moderator. Building on multiple replications of the zero-outcome effect, this study attempts to conceptualize “zero-outcome sensitivity” by quantifying this effect and using it as an indicator to distinguish between different groups and individuals, highlighting its capacity to interpret inmates' decision-making processes and underscoring the model's utility in capturing nuanced behavioral patterns across diverse scenarios.
This research identified key distinctions in decision-making behaviors between inmates and the general population, elucidating the underlying psychological mechanisms. The study's theoretical contributions include conceptualizing and quantifying “zero-outcome sensitivity” and discovering a non-linear relationship between death awareness and subjective life expectancy, modulated by risk preferences. These findings provide empirical evidence for more accurate individual assessments of inmates and criminal risk assessment. The implications of this study also extend to practical applications in criminal justice, potentially leading to more effective interventions to reduce recidivism and promote rehabilitation.

Key words: incarceration, intertemporal decision-making, risk preference, death awareness, life expectancy, zero-outcome sensitivity