Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 1629-1645.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2026.1629
• Research Method • Previous Articles Next Articles
SANG Jieyu, LIU Yuan(
), WEI Dongtao
Received:2025-08-09
Online:2026-09-15
Published:2026-07-20
Contact:
LIU Yuan
E-mail:lyuuan@swu.edu.cn
CLC Number:
SANG Jieyu, LIU Yuan, WEI Dongtao. Time scales in intensive longitudinal data: Modeling, comparison and application of discrete time and continuous time[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2026, 34(9): 1629-1645.
| 实际测量时间 | 波次(Wave) | 自然 时间(Hour) | DT 时间 | CT时间 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Δt = 1小时 | Δt = 3小时 | |||||
| 第一天 | 10:01:03 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 第一天 | 12:52:13 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 第一天 | 16:02:54 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 第一天 | 18:59:40 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 第一天 | 22:04:19 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 |
| 第二天 | 9:50:47 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 25 | 9 |
| 第二天 | 12:51:59 | 7 | 37 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 第二天 | 15:53:14 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 31 | 11 |
| 第二天 | 19:06:56 | 9 | 43 | 12 | 34 | 12 |
| 第二天 | 21:59:02 | 10 | 46 | 13 | 37 | 13 |
| 实际测量时间 | 波次(Wave) | 自然 时间(Hour) | DT 时间 | CT时间 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Δt = 1小时 | Δt = 3小时 | |||||
| 第一天 | 10:01:03 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 第一天 | 12:52:13 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 第一天 | 16:02:54 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 第一天 | 18:59:40 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 第一天 | 22:04:19 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 5 |
| 第二天 | 9:50:47 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 25 | 9 |
| 第二天 | 12:51:59 | 7 | 37 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 第二天 | 15:53:14 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 31 | 11 |
| 第二天 | 19:06:56 | 9 | 43 | 12 | 34 | 12 |
| 第二天 | 21:59:02 | 10 | 46 | 13 | 37 | 13 |
| DT模型 | CT模型 | |
|---|---|---|
| 研究假设 | 测量之间时间间隔相等 | 存在潜在的基本连续函数, 变量随时间连续变化, 测量之间无固定测量间隔 |
| 对时间的定义 | 按测量发生的先后顺序, 对时间进行隐含建模 | 对时间进行显性建模, 通过设定基础时间间隔, 将所有的测量时间以基础时间间隔为参照, 重新在相同的时间尺度上划分, 通过微分方程直接对时间建模 |
| 参数设定 | 动态参数:Φ 误差参数:ε~N (0, Σ) | 动态参数(漂移矩阵):A 误差参数(扩散矩阵):GG′ = Q |
| 动态效应的解释 | 基于特定时间间隔的前后两个时间点数据的动态效应, 不考虑两个时间点之间的动态过程 | 通过积分获得任意时间间隔之间的动态效应, 估计的是两个时间点之间动态的瞬时变化的累积动态效应 |
| 对不等间隔的处理 | 将测量之间不等间隔视为未观测时间点数据的缺失, 一般通过卡尔曼滤波进行缺失值插补, 从而满足等间隔假设 | 将原始的不等间隔的离散测量点视为潜在连续轨迹的信息, 直接对数据分析 |
| 优点 | (1)基于特定测量时间间隔的动态参数更容易解释; (2)建模更加简约。 | (1)对观测数据的时间间隔无特定要求, 可以获得独立于时间间隔的动态参数; (2)可以灵活缩放到其它特定的离散时间间隔上得到研究者想获得的动态效应的相对尺度 (3)实现跨研究可比性; (4)对高阶动态等一些复杂时间序列建模(如阻尼振动描述了周期性的有衰减的变化轨迹, 基于微分方程建模); (5)预计交叉滞后效应达到最大值的时间间隔。 |
| 缺点 | (1)难以有效处理数据收集时间点随机或大量不等间隔的情形; (2)无法使用特定测量间隔以外的间隔长度插补数据, 只能在特定的研究间隔下解释动态效应, 不能推广到其他的间隔上; (3)对同一个感兴趣变量进行密集追踪研究时, 不同测量间隔设计得到的动态效应, 缺乏跨研究可比性; (4)无法对一些特定的复杂时间序列建模。 | (1)建模更加复杂; (2)模型直接获得的动态参数不便解释, 仍然需要合理地转换到离散的特定时间间隔上解读。 |
| DT模型 | CT模型 | |
|---|---|---|
| 研究假设 | 测量之间时间间隔相等 | 存在潜在的基本连续函数, 变量随时间连续变化, 测量之间无固定测量间隔 |
| 对时间的定义 | 按测量发生的先后顺序, 对时间进行隐含建模 | 对时间进行显性建模, 通过设定基础时间间隔, 将所有的测量时间以基础时间间隔为参照, 重新在相同的时间尺度上划分, 通过微分方程直接对时间建模 |
| 参数设定 | 动态参数:Φ 误差参数:ε~N (0, Σ) | 动态参数(漂移矩阵):A 误差参数(扩散矩阵):GG′ = Q |
| 动态效应的解释 | 基于特定时间间隔的前后两个时间点数据的动态效应, 不考虑两个时间点之间的动态过程 | 通过积分获得任意时间间隔之间的动态效应, 估计的是两个时间点之间动态的瞬时变化的累积动态效应 |
| 对不等间隔的处理 | 将测量之间不等间隔视为未观测时间点数据的缺失, 一般通过卡尔曼滤波进行缺失值插补, 从而满足等间隔假设 | 将原始的不等间隔的离散测量点视为潜在连续轨迹的信息, 直接对数据分析 |
| 优点 | (1)基于特定测量时间间隔的动态参数更容易解释; (2)建模更加简约。 | (1)对观测数据的时间间隔无特定要求, 可以获得独立于时间间隔的动态参数; (2)可以灵活缩放到其它特定的离散时间间隔上得到研究者想获得的动态效应的相对尺度 (3)实现跨研究可比性; (4)对高阶动态等一些复杂时间序列建模(如阻尼振动描述了周期性的有衰减的变化轨迹, 基于微分方程建模); (5)预计交叉滞后效应达到最大值的时间间隔。 |
| 缺点 | (1)难以有效处理数据收集时间点随机或大量不等间隔的情形; (2)无法使用特定测量间隔以外的间隔长度插补数据, 只能在特定的研究间隔下解释动态效应, 不能推广到其他的间隔上; (3)对同一个感兴趣变量进行密集追踪研究时, 不同测量间隔设计得到的动态效应, 缺乏跨研究可比性; (4)无法对一些特定的复杂时间序列建模。 | (1)建模更加复杂; (2)模型直接获得的动态参数不便解释, 仍然需要合理地转换到离散的特定时间间隔上解读。 |
| 参数 | DT模型 | CT模型 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | |
| 固定效应 | ||||||
| 害怕截距(μ1) | 1.32 | 0.04 | [1.23, 1.40] | 1.32 | 0.04 | [1.24, 1.40] |
| 开心截距(μ2) | 2.04 | 0.08 | [1.87, 2.19] | 2.04 | 0.10 | [1.86, 2.22] |
| 害怕自回归(φ1) | 0.22 | 0.01 | [0.19, 0.24] | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.18, 0.23] |
| 开心自回归(φ2) | 0.19 | 0.02 | [0.16, 0.21] | 0.18 | 0.02 | [0.15, 0.21] |
| 害怕→开心(φ3) | 0.14 | 0.03 | [0.08, 0.20] | 0.17 | 0.03 | [0.11, 0.23] |
| 开心→害怕(φ4) | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.05] |
| 害怕斜率(γ1) | −0.01 | 0.00 | [−0.02, −0.01] | −0.01 | 0.00 | [−0.02, −0.01] |
| 开心斜率(γ2) | −0.02 | 0.01 | [−0.03, −0.01] | −0.02 | 0.01 | [−0.03, −0.01] |
| 随机效应 | ||||||
| 个体内害怕残差方差(σ12) | 0.35 | 0.01 | [0.34, 0.36] | 0.35 | 0.01 | [0.34, 0.36] |
| 开心残差方差(σ22) | 1.48 | 0.03 | [1.42, 1.52] | 1.49 | 0.02 | [1.45, 1.54] |
| 个体间害怕截距方差(τ12) | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.17] | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.18] |
| 开心截距方差(τ22) | 0.56 | 0.09 | [0.42, 0.77] | 0.58 | 0.10 | [0.43, 0.79] |
| 参数 | DT模型 | CT模型 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | |
| 固定效应 | ||||||
| 害怕截距(μ1) | 1.32 | 0.04 | [1.23, 1.40] | 1.32 | 0.04 | [1.24, 1.40] |
| 开心截距(μ2) | 2.04 | 0.08 | [1.87, 2.19] | 2.04 | 0.10 | [1.86, 2.22] |
| 害怕自回归(φ1) | 0.22 | 0.01 | [0.19, 0.24] | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.18, 0.23] |
| 开心自回归(φ2) | 0.19 | 0.02 | [0.16, 0.21] | 0.18 | 0.02 | [0.15, 0.21] |
| 害怕→开心(φ3) | 0.14 | 0.03 | [0.08, 0.20] | 0.17 | 0.03 | [0.11, 0.23] |
| 开心→害怕(φ4) | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.05] |
| 害怕斜率(γ1) | −0.01 | 0.00 | [−0.02, −0.01] | −0.01 | 0.00 | [−0.02, −0.01] |
| 开心斜率(γ2) | −0.02 | 0.01 | [−0.03, −0.01] | −0.02 | 0.01 | [−0.03, −0.01] |
| 随机效应 | ||||||
| 个体内害怕残差方差(σ12) | 0.35 | 0.01 | [0.34, 0.36] | 0.35 | 0.01 | [0.34, 0.36] |
| 开心残差方差(σ22) | 1.48 | 0.03 | [1.42, 1.52] | 1.49 | 0.02 | [1.45, 1.54] |
| 个体间害怕截距方差(τ12) | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.17] | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.18] |
| 开心截距方差(τ22) | 0.56 | 0.09 | [0.42, 0.77] | 0.58 | 0.10 | [0.43, 0.79] |
| 时间点数量 | 被试编号 | |
|---|---|---|
| CT模型 | DT模型 | |
| 24 | 23 | |
| 27 | 77 | |
| 28 | 26 | |
| 38 | 12 | |
| 51 | 23 | |
| 52 | 30 | |
| 54 | 24 | |
| 55 | 7 84 | |
| 56 | 38 | |
| 57 | 68 | |
| 58 | 27 13 89 | |
| 59 | 20 37 71 | |
| 60 | 72 91 | |
| 61 | 82 78 | |
| 62 | 57 | |
| 63 | 8 | |
| 64 | 48 | |
| 65 | 56 44 67 10 | |
| 66 | 54 76 4 17 93 | |
| 67 | 70 52 58 73 29 35 | |
| 68 | 34 90 39 42 | |
| 69 | 53 40 | |
| 70 | 1 86 | |
| 71 | 33 65 83 | |
| 72 | 32 9 31 80 | |
| 73 | 16 74 | |
| 74 | 81 14 64 | |
| 75 | 41 2 69 | |
| 76 | 88 43 21 66 6 | |
| 77 | 50 | |
| 78 | 61 11 36 45 47 59 92 75 | |
| 79 | 22 55 63 51 3 18 | |
| 80 | 46 15 5 | |
| 81 | 60 28 79 49 25 | |
| 82 | 85 19 87 | |
| 83 | 62 | |
| 98 | 12 26 | |
| 109 | 20 10 24 13 29 30 38 39 42 52 53 54 57 67 70 76 77 82 89 91 93 | |
| 114 | 44 71 72 | |
| 116 | 4 | |
| 121 | 27 | |
| 122 | 7 | |
| 130 | 40 | |
| 132 | 37 69 84 | |
| 133 | 60 1 68 8 32 55 48 | |
| 137 | 2 43 21 45 46 47 22 49 50 51 9 5 25 11 56 6 58 59 28 61 62 63 64 65 66 3 14 31 15 33 34 73 74 75 35 36 78 79 80 81 16 83 17 85 86 87 88 18 90 19 92 41 | |
| 时间点数量 | 被试编号 | |
|---|---|---|
| CT模型 | DT模型 | |
| 24 | 23 | |
| 27 | 77 | |
| 28 | 26 | |
| 38 | 12 | |
| 51 | 23 | |
| 52 | 30 | |
| 54 | 24 | |
| 55 | 7 84 | |
| 56 | 38 | |
| 57 | 68 | |
| 58 | 27 13 89 | |
| 59 | 20 37 71 | |
| 60 | 72 91 | |
| 61 | 82 78 | |
| 62 | 57 | |
| 63 | 8 | |
| 64 | 48 | |
| 65 | 56 44 67 10 | |
| 66 | 54 76 4 17 93 | |
| 67 | 70 52 58 73 29 35 | |
| 68 | 34 90 39 42 | |
| 69 | 53 40 | |
| 70 | 1 86 | |
| 71 | 33 65 83 | |
| 72 | 32 9 31 80 | |
| 73 | 16 74 | |
| 74 | 81 14 64 | |
| 75 | 41 2 69 | |
| 76 | 88 43 21 66 6 | |
| 77 | 50 | |
| 78 | 61 11 36 45 47 59 92 75 | |
| 79 | 22 55 63 51 3 18 | |
| 80 | 46 15 5 | |
| 81 | 60 28 79 49 25 | |
| 82 | 85 19 87 | |
| 83 | 62 | |
| 98 | 12 26 | |
| 109 | 20 10 24 13 29 30 38 39 42 52 53 54 57 67 70 76 77 82 89 91 93 | |
| 114 | 44 71 72 | |
| 116 | 4 | |
| 121 | 27 | |
| 122 | 7 | |
| 130 | 40 | |
| 132 | 37 69 84 | |
| 133 | 60 1 68 8 32 55 48 | |
| 137 | 2 43 21 45 46 47 22 49 50 51 9 5 25 11 56 6 58 59 28 61 62 63 64 65 66 3 14 31 15 33 34 73 74 75 35 36 78 79 80 81 16 83 17 85 86 87 88 18 90 19 92 41 | |
| 参数 | DT模型 | CT模型 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | |
| 固定效应 | ||||||
| 害怕截距(μ1) | 1.28 | 0.04 | [1.20, 1.35] | 1.29 | 0.04 | [1.20, 1.37] |
| 开心截距(μ2) | 1.96 | 0.09 | [1.78, 2.12] | 1.97 | 0.09 | [1.80, 2.14] |
| 害怕自回归(φ1) | 0.21 | 0.01 | [0.19, 0.24] | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.17, 0.23] |
| 开心自回归(φ2) | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.17, 0.23] | 0.19 | 0.02 | [0.16, 0.22] |
| 害怕→开心(φ3) | 0.12 | 0.03 | [0.07, 0.17] | 0.16 | 0.03 | [0.09, 0.21] |
| 开心→害怕(φ4) | 0.02 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.05] |
| 害怕斜率(γ1) | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, -0.00] | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, -0.00] |
| 开心斜率(γ2) | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, 0.00] | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.02, 0.00] |
| 随机效应 | ||||||
| 个体内害怕残差方差(σ12) | 0.36 | 0.01 | [0.35, 0.37] | 0.36 | 0.01 | [0.35, 0.37] |
| 开心残差方差(σ22) | 1.55 | 0.03 | [1.49, 1.60] | 1.56 | 0.03 | [1.51, 1.63] |
| 个体间害怕截距方差(τ12) | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.19] | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.18] |
| 开心截距方差(τ22) | 0.55 | 0.08 | [0.41, 0.73] | 0.54 | 0.09 | [0.39, 0.75] |
| 参数 | DT模型 | CT模型 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | Est. | 后验S.D. | 95% CI | |
| 固定效应 | ||||||
| 害怕截距(μ1) | 1.28 | 0.04 | [1.20, 1.35] | 1.29 | 0.04 | [1.20, 1.37] |
| 开心截距(μ2) | 1.96 | 0.09 | [1.78, 2.12] | 1.97 | 0.09 | [1.80, 2.14] |
| 害怕自回归(φ1) | 0.21 | 0.01 | [0.19, 0.24] | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.17, 0.23] |
| 开心自回归(φ2) | 0.20 | 0.02 | [0.17, 0.23] | 0.19 | 0.02 | [0.16, 0.22] |
| 害怕→开心(φ3) | 0.12 | 0.03 | [0.07, 0.17] | 0.16 | 0.03 | [0.09, 0.21] |
| 开心→害怕(φ4) | 0.02 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | 0.01 | [0.01, 0.05] |
| 害怕斜率(γ1) | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, -0.00] | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, -0.00] |
| 开心斜率(γ2) | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.01, 0.00] | -0.01 | 0.00 | [-0.02, 0.00] |
| 随机效应 | ||||||
| 个体内害怕残差方差(σ12) | 0.36 | 0.01 | [0.35, 0.37] | 0.36 | 0.01 | [0.35, 0.37] |
| 开心残差方差(σ22) | 1.55 | 0.03 | [1.49, 1.60] | 1.56 | 0.03 | [1.51, 1.63] |
| 个体间害怕截距方差(τ12) | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.19] | 0.13 | 0.02 | [0.10, 0.18] |
| 开心截距方差(τ22) | 0.55 | 0.08 | [0.41, 0.73] | 0.54 | 0.09 | [0.39, 0.75] |
| 时间点数量 | 被试编号 | |
|---|---|---|
| CT模型 | DT模型 | |
| 24 | 23 | |
| 27 | 77 | |
| 28 | 26 | |
| 38 | 12 | |
| 45 | 84 | |
| 46 | 68 | |
| 47 | 78 | |
| 50 | 37 48 7 | |
| 51 | 23 | |
| 52 | 8 30 | |
| 53 | 35 | |
| 54 | 27 24 17 90 | |
| 55 | 58 34 | |
| 56 | 38 83 | |
| 57 | 56 86 33 | |
| 58 | 71 16 13 89 80 | |
| 59 | 72 20 65 | |
| 60 | 14 73 41 31 1 91 | |
| 61 | 82 32 64 43 9 21 81 | |
| 62 | 74 66 57 88 6 40 2 | |
| 63 | 45 36 75 50 11 92 | |
| 64 | 61 63 47 44 4 59 | |
| 65 | 46 18 3 10 67 51 | |
| 66 | 54 49 79 25 22 69 76 93 | |
| 67 | 15 5 85 28 87 29 60 70 52 19 55 | |
| 68 | 42 62 39 | |
| 69 | 53 | |
| 98 | 12 26 | |
| 106 | 48 | |
| 107 | ||
| 108 | 41 34 68 85 | |
| 109 | 9 10 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2 24 25 3 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 4 35 36 37 38 39 40 5 42 43 44 45 46 47 6 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 7 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 8 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 | |
| 时间点数量 | 被试编号 | |
|---|---|---|
| CT模型 | DT模型 | |
| 24 | 23 | |
| 27 | 77 | |
| 28 | 26 | |
| 38 | 12 | |
| 45 | 84 | |
| 46 | 68 | |
| 47 | 78 | |
| 50 | 37 48 7 | |
| 51 | 23 | |
| 52 | 8 30 | |
| 53 | 35 | |
| 54 | 27 24 17 90 | |
| 55 | 58 34 | |
| 56 | 38 83 | |
| 57 | 56 86 33 | |
| 58 | 71 16 13 89 80 | |
| 59 | 72 20 65 | |
| 60 | 14 73 41 31 1 91 | |
| 61 | 82 32 64 43 9 21 81 | |
| 62 | 74 66 57 88 6 40 2 | |
| 63 | 45 36 75 50 11 92 | |
| 64 | 61 63 47 44 4 59 | |
| 65 | 46 18 3 10 67 51 | |
| 66 | 54 49 79 25 22 69 76 93 | |
| 67 | 15 5 85 28 87 29 60 70 52 19 55 | |
| 68 | 42 62 39 | |
| 69 | 53 | |
| 98 | 12 26 | |
| 106 | 48 | |
| 107 | ||
| 108 | 41 34 68 85 | |
| 109 | 9 10 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2 24 25 3 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 4 35 36 37 38 39 40 5 42 43 44 45 46 47 6 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 7 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 8 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 | |
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