ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R

Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (8): 1473-1481.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2013.01473

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Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation

XIANG Peng;XU Fuming;GUO Yongyu;LI Haijun;KONG Shixiao;MENG Zhenzhen   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior, Ministry of Education, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, and Hubei Human Development and Mental Health Key Laboratory, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2013-01-08 Online:2013-08-15 Published:2013-08-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming

Abstract: Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator base his evaluation for decision quality on the outcome of decision rather than on the appropriateness of decision. That is, when an outcome is good (bad), evaluator tends to evaluate the decision positively (negatively) regardless of the actual appropriateness of the decision resulting in that outcome. As for now, researchers have provided two main underlying causes for outcome bias, cognitive explanations and justification model. Evidences show outcome bias could be influenced by some factors, such as motive, context information, and evaluation measure. Instead of laboratory experiments, further researches are expected to be operated in real settings. In addition, further researches should explore how to effectively mitigate outcome bias and make a distinction with other biases in behavioral decision making.

Key words: outcome bias, outcome effect, justification model