关键词: 事后聪明式偏差, 认知过程, 社会性动机, 校正策略

Abstract: Hindsight bias refers to people’s overestimation of their predictability on the outcome of previous events after they have known the results. Research suggested that this may due to the distortion of previous memory, induced impressions of predictability or the impressions of necessity. Many studies suggested that the bias was widely observed in both labs and real situations, and was difficult to be debiased by using strategies. Relevant theoretical models were mainly based on cognitive processes and social motives, and many factors such as research methods, personal traits, ability variables, personal-relevance and event valence were found influential. Future studies should focus on the integration of various theories, and the exploration of debiasing strategies in application

Key words: Hindsight bias, cognitive process, social motives, debiasing strategy