折扣还是权衡：混合得失双结果跨期决策的理论探索

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2023.01121

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

个人、企业乃至国家在实际生活中需要做出涉及不同时间节点的决策, 此类决策在行为决策领域一般以“跨期偏好”作为衡量指标。而人类社会发展所必须做出的攸关生存发展的重要跨期决策实则是混合得失双结果的跨期决策。然而, 现有基于纯获得范式未能帮助我们理解和预测现实中更加复杂、真实的混合得失双结果跨期决策问题。为了描述并解释人们的混合得失双结果跨期偏好, 本项目拟: 1)通过不同逻辑合成混合得失双结果跨期决策的折扣率, 为模型比较提供尚缺乏的预测指标; 2)开发生态版的混合得失双结果跨期偏好任务, 为后续研究的开展提供更加生态化、有预测力的测量范式; 3)采用静态的直观模拟天平任务和动态的鼠标实验室、眼动追踪技术相结合的手段, 检验效用比较模型与属性比较模型何种可以更满意地解释混合得失双结果的跨期决策。

关键词: 跨期决策, 混合得失, 生态测量, 模型检验, 决策过程

Abstract:

Individuals, enterprises, and countries need to make decisions involving different time nodes in real life. Such decisions are commonly measured by “intertemporal preference” in the field of behavioral decision-making. The most crucial kind of intertemporal decision making relevant to survival and development is the intertemporal choice with double-dated mix outcomes. However, existing intertemporal preferences measured by paradigms with pure gain outcomes were found to be poor predictors of far-sighted behavior in real life. To explore the characteristics of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, and investigate which theory could provide a satisfactory account for intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, the present project tends to carry out three research. Study 1 is designed to synthesize indicators of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes by using two different logics, providing predictive indicators for model comparison. Study 2 would develop a new ecological paradigm of measuring intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, aiming to provide a more ecological and predictive measurement for the development of the following research. Study 3 aims to adopt the Mouselab and eye-tracking technique to test which model could more satisfactorily explain intertemporal choice with double-dated outcomes, the utility comparison model or the attribute-comparison model. Having sorted out the existing compensatory and non-compensatory models, and based on behavioral choice outcomes and behavioral process techniques, we proposed an explanation of integrative trade-off models. First, when people are faced with intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, they would perform simplification of information within options with limited cognitive resources. Thus, we can determine whether decision-makers are more likely to use additive logic or integrated logic to simplify option information within options when processing. Second, based on the integration and simplification of within-option information, evidence based on the choice process helps reveal whether people apply the non-compensatory model to make an intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes. Finally, this project tends to improve predictive power for farsighted/short-sighted by introducing multiple time points, the combination of gain and loss outcomes into intertemporal choices. In summary, the current project proposes to combine evidence on choice outcomes and choice processes to test whether people make the intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes following utility or attribute comparison models/strategies, and to improve the predictive power of intertemporal preferences for realistic farsighted/short-sighted decisions. The implementation of the current project will help improve our understanding of the mechanisms of intertemporal preferences with double-dated mixed outcomes and provide a practical reference for people on which temporal strategies to choose in crises.

Key words: intertemporal choice, mixed outcomes, ecological measurement, model comparison, decision process

中图分类号:

B849: C91

沈丝楚, 王耀民, 张寒冰, 马家涛. (2023). 折扣还是权衡：混合得失双结果跨期决策的理论探索. 心理科学进展 , 31(7), 1121-1132.

SHEN Si-Chu, WANG Yao-Min, ZHANG Han-Bing, MA Jia-Tao. (2023). Discount or trade off: The psychological mechanisms of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes. Advances in Psychological Science, 31(7), 1121-1132.

图/表 2

参考文献 71

[1]	邓尧, 王梦梦, 饶恒毅. (2022). 风险决策研究中的仿真气球冒险任务. 心理科学进展, 30(6), 1377-1392. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2022.01377
[2]	何贵兵, 陈海贤, 林静. (2009). 跨期选择中的反常现象及其心理机制. 应用心理学, 15(4), 298-305.
[3]	江程铭, 刘洪志, 蔡晓红, 李纾. (2016). 跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验. 心理学报, 48(1), 59-72.
[4]	江程铭, 王蕾, 马家涛, 陈李娜, 何铨. (2021). 跨期选择损益不对称: 从现象到心理机制. 应用心理学. 27(1), 66-74.
[5]	江程铭, 谢铠杰, 何铨. (2018). 跨期选择研究: 从单时点结果到多时点结果. 心理科学进展, 26(5), 922-927. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2018.00922
[6]	蒋多. (2015). 跨期决策策略研究 (博士学位论文). 浙江大学, 杭州.
[7]	李爱梅, 彭元, 熊冠星. (2015). 孕妇更长计远虑?——怀孕对女性跨期决策偏好的影响. 心理学报, 47(11), 1360-1370.
[8]	李纾. (2016). 决策心理: 齐当别之道. 上海: 华东师范大学出版社.
[9]	梁竹苑, 刘欢. (2011). 跨期选择的性质探索. 心理科学进展, 19(7), 959-966.
[10]	彭娟, 冯廷勇. (2014). 成瘾人群跨期选择的神经机制及干预方法. 心理科学进展, 22(5), 810-821. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00810
[11]	任天虹, 胡志善, 孙红月, 刘扬, 李纾. (2015). 选择与坚持: 跨期选择与延迟满足之比较. 心理科学进展, 23(2), 303-315. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2015.00303
[12]	沈丝楚, 陈熹, 郭慧芳, 李纾. (2018). 合格与不合格的智人: 以虚构故事为行为标志物的视角. 科技导报, 36(5), 77-84.
[13]	沈丝楚, 希喜格, 丁阳, 马家涛, 杨舒雯, 匡仪, 许明星, John, Taplin, 李纾. (2023). 跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效: 亚非欧美大洋洲 18 国跨国研究. 心理学报, 55(3), 435-454. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2023.00435
[14]	孙海龙, 安薪如, 熊冠星. (2021). 多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制. 心理科学进展, 29(12), 2224-2235. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2021.02224
[15]	孙红月, 江程铭. (2016). 跨期决策是基于选项还是基于维度. 心理科学进展, 24(3), 431-437. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2016.00431
[16]	孙红月, 鲁盼, 蒋元萍. (2021). 跨期决策中的负折扣现象及其机制. 心理科学进展, 29(7), 1291-1299. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2021.01291
[17]	唐辉, 周坤, 赵翠霞, 李纾. (2014). 吃亏是福: 择“值”选项而获真利. 心理学报, 46(10), 1549-1563.
[18]	徐四华, 方卓, 饶恒毅. (2013). 真实和虚拟金钱奖赏影响风险决策行为. 心理学报, 45(8), 874-886.
[19]	杨玲, 杨晓惠, 张莉媛, 李赟, 曹华, 张建勋. (2021). 未来情景想象对海洛因戒断者跨期决策的影响. 心理与行为研究, 19(4), 535-541.
[20]	余雯, 闫巩固, 黄志华. (2013). 决策中的过程追踪技术: 介绍与展望. 心理科学进展, 21(4), 606-614. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2013.00606
[21]	袁明, 李晓明. (2011). 决策过程追踪工具:mouselab与mouselabweb. 社会心理科学, 26(11), 77-82.
[22]	张阳阳, 周蕾, 游旭群, 李纾, 梁竹苑. (2018). 跨期决策是否基于“折扣计算”: 来自双分离范式的证据. 中国科学: 生命科学, 48(5), 592-608.
[23]	周晶, 张加峰, 李智勇, 李晶. (2020). 得失情境下的图形框架对跨期选择倾向的影响. 心理学探新, 40(2), 164-168.
[24]	周蕾, 李爱梅, 张磊, 李纾, 梁竹苑. (2019). 风险决策和跨期决策的过程比较: 以确定效应和即刻效应为例. 心理学报, 51(3), 337-352. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2019.00337
[25]	Ariely, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). When does duration matter in judgment and decision making? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129(4), 508-523. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.129.4.508 URL
[26]	Arfer, K. B. & Luhmann, C. C. (2017). Time-preference tests fail to predict behavior related to self-control. Frontiers in Psychology, 8, 150. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00150 pmid: 28232810
[27]	Blavatskyy, P. R. (2022). Intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between cumulative payoff and average delay. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 64(1), 89-107. doi: 10.1007/s11166-022-09370-3
[28]	Böckenholt, U., & Hynan, L. S. (1994). Caveats on a process- tracing measure and a remedy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7(2), 103-117. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1099-0771 URL
[29]	Chabris, C. F., Laibson, D., Morris, C. L., Schuldt, J. P., & Taubinsky, D. (2008). Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37(2-3), 237-269. doi: 10.1007/s11166-008-9053-x pmid: 19412359
[30]	Cheung, S. L. (2020). Eliciting utility curvature in time preference. Experimental Economics, 23(2), 493-525. doi: 10.1007/s10683-019-09621-2
[31]	Estle, S. J., Green, L., & Myerson, J. (2019). When immediate losses are followed by delayed gains: Additive hyperboloid discounting models. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(4), 1418-1425. doi: 10.3758/s13423-019-01599-5
[32]	Fairley, K., Parelman, J. M., Jones, M., & Carter, R. C. (2019). Risky health choices and the balloon economic risk protocol. Journal of Economic Psychology, 73, 15-33. doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2019.04.005
[33]	Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., & O'donoghue, T. (2002). Time discounting and time preference: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(2), 351-401. doi: 10.1257/jel.40.2.351 URL
[34]	Hardisty, D. J., Thompson, K. F., Krantz, D. H., & Weber, E. U. (2013). How to measure time preferences: An experimental comparison of three methods. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(3), 236-249. doi: 10.1017/S1930297500005957 URL
[35]	Hardisty, D. J., & Weber, E. U. (2020). Impatience and savoring vs. dread: Asymmetries in anticipation explain consumer time preferences for positive vs. negative events. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 30(4), 598-613. doi: 10.1002/jcpy.v30.4 URL
[36]	Harris, C. R. (2012). Feelings of dread and intertemporal choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(1), 13-28. doi: 10.1002/bdm.709 URL
[37]	Harvey, C. M. (1989). Prescriptive models of psychological effects on risk attitudes. Annals of Operations Research, 19(1), 141-170. doi: 10.1007/BF02283518 URL
[38]	Huang, Y.-N., Shen, S.-C., Yang, S.-W., Kuang, Y., Li, Y.-X., & Li, S. (2021). Asymmetrical property of the subproportionality of weighting function in prospect theory: Is it real and how can it be achieved?. Symmetry, 13(10), 1928.
[39]	Johnson, M. W., & Bickel, W. K. (2002). Within-subject comparison of real and hypothetical money rewards in delay discounting. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 77(2), 129-146. pmid: 11936247
[40]	Kirby, K. N., Petry, N. M., & Bickel, W. K. (1999). Heroin addicts have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than non-drug-using controls. Journal of Experimental Psychology General, 128(1), 78-87. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.128.1.78 URL
[41]	Kuang, Y., Huang, Y.-N., & Li, S. (2022). A framing effect of intertemporal and spatial choice. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 17470218221113519.
[42]	Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 443-478. doi: 10.1162/003355397555253 URL
[43]	Lejuez, C. W., Read, J. P., Kahler, C. W., Richards, J. B., Ramsey, S. E., Stuart, G. L.,... Brown, R. A. (2002). Evaluation of a behavioral measure of risk taking: The Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8(2), 75-84. doi: 10.1037/1076-898X.8.2.75 URL
[44]	Li, S. (2004). A behavioral choice model when computational ability matters. Applied Intelligence, 20(2), 147-163. doi: 10.1023/B:APIN.0000013337.01711.c7 URL
[45]	Liu, H., Lyu, X., Wei, Z., Mo, W., Luo, J., & Su, X. (2021). Exploiting the dynamics of eye gaze to bias intertemporal choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 34(3), 419-431. doi: 10.1002/bdm.v34.3 URL
[46]	Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (1992). Anomalies in intertemporal choice: Evidence and an interpretation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 573-597. doi: 10.2307/2118482 URL
[47]	Luckman, A., Donkin, C., & Newell, B. R. (2020). An evaluation and comparison of models of risky intertemporal choice. Psychological Review, 127(6), 1097-1138. doi: 10.1037/rev0000223 URL
[48]	Ma, J.-T., Wang, L., Chen, L.-N., He, Q., Sun, Q.-Z., Sun, H.-Y., & Jiang, C.-M. (2021). Comparing mixed intertemporal tradeoffs with pure gains or pure losses. Judgment and Decision Making, 16(3), 709-728. doi: 10.1017/S1930297500007798 URL
[49]	Mazur, J. E. (1987). An adjusting procedure for studying delayed reinforcement. In: CommonsML, MazurJE, NevinJA, Rachlin (Eds.), Quantitative analysis of behavior: Vol 5. The effect of delay and intervening events on reinforcement value (pp. 55-73). Hillsdale, N.J: Erlbaum.
[50]	McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G. F., & Cohen, J. D. (2004). Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science, 306(5695), 503-507. doi: 10.1126/science.1100907 pmid: 15486304
[51]	Ostaszewski, P. (2007). Temporal discounting in “gain now-lose later” and “lose now-gain later” conditions. Psychological Reports, 100(2), 653-660. pmid: 17564241
[52]	Pan, J., Webb, C. S., & Zank, H. (2015). An extension of quasi-hyperbolic discounting to continuous time. Games and Economic Behavior, 89, 43-55. doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2014.11.003 URL
[53]	Rao, L.-L., & Li, S. (2011). New paradoxes in intertemporal choice. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(2), 122-129. doi: 10.1017/S193029750000406X URL
[54]	Read, D., Olivola, C. Y., & Hardisty, D. J. (2016). The value of nothing: Asymmetric attention to opportunity costs drives intertemporal decision making. Management Science, 63(12), 4277-4297. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2547 URL
[55]	Reeck, C., Wall, D., & Johnson, E. J. (2017). Search predicts and changes patience in intertemporal choice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(45), 11890-11895. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1707040114 URL
[56]	Samuelson, P. A. (1937). A note on measurement of utility. The Review of Economic Studies, 4(2), 155-161. doi: 10.2307/2967612 URL
[57]	Schoemann, M., Lüken, M., Grage, T., Kieslich, P. J., & Scherbaum, S. (2019). Validating mouse-tracking: How design factors influence action dynamics in intertemporal decision making. Behavior Research Methods, 51(5), 2356-2377. doi: 10.3758/s13428-018-1179-4 pmid: 30684228
[58]	Scholten, H., Scheres, A., de Water, E., Graf, U., Granic, I., & Luijten, M. (2019). Behavioral trainings and manipulations to reduce delay discounting: A systematic review. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(6), 1803-1849. doi: 10.3758/s13423-019-01629-2
[59]	Scholten, M., & Read, D. (2010). The psychology of intertemporal tradeoffs. Psychological Review, 117(3), 925-944. doi: 10.1037/a0019619 pmid: 20658858
[60]	Scholten, M., Read, D., & Sanborn, A. (2016). Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145(9), 1177-1205. doi: 10.1037/xge0000198 URL
[61]	Shen, S.-C., Huang, Y.-N., Jiang, C.-M., & Li, S. (2019). Can asymmetric subjective opportunity cost effect explain impatience in intertemporal choice? A replication study. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(2), 214-222. doi: 10.1017/S1930297500003442 URL
[62]	Sun, H.-L., Li, A.-M., Shen, S.-C., Xiong, G.-X., Rao, L.-L., Zheng, R., Sun, H.-Y., & Li, S. (2020). Early departure, early revival: A ''free from care'' account of negative temporal discounting. Advances in Cognitive Psychology, 16 (2), 103-116. doi: 10.5709/acp-0289-0 URL
[63]	Sun, H. Y., Li, A. M., Chen, S., Zhao, D., Rao, L. L., Liang, Z. Y., & Li, S. (2015). Pain now or later: An outgrowth account of pain-minimization. PLoS One, 10(3), e0119320.
[64]	Sun, H.-Y., Ma, J.-T., Zhou, L., Jiang, C.-M., & Li, S. (2022). Waiting is painful: The impact of anticipated dread on negative discounting in the loss domain. Judgment and Decision Making, 17(6), 1353-1378. doi: 10.1017/S1930297500009451 URL
[65]	Urminsky, O., & Zauberman, G. (2015). The psychology of intertemporal preferences. In G. Keren, & G. Wu (Eds.), The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 141-181). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
[66]	Vincent, B. T. (2016). Hierarchical Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing for delay discounting tasks. Behavior Research Methods, 48(4), 1608-1620. pmid: 26542975
[67]	Xu, P., Vincent, B. T., & González-Vallejo, C. (2020). Waiting in intertemporal choice tasks affects discounting and subjective time perception. Journal of Experimental Psychology General, 149(12), 2289-2312. doi: 10.1037/xge0000771 URL
[68]	Zhang, Y.-Y., Zhou, L., Li, S., & Liang, Z.-Y. (2022). Computation of subjective value does not always elicit alternative-based information searching in intertemporal choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 35(4), 1-13.
[69]	Zhao, C.-X., Shen, S.-C., Rao, L.-L., Zheng, R., Liu, H., & Li, S. (2018). Suffering a loss is good fortune: Myth or reality? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31(3), 324-340. doi: 10.1002/bdm.v31.3 URL
[70]	Zheng, Y., Shen, S.-C., Xu, M.-X., Rao, L.-L., & Li, S. (2019). Worth-based choice: Giving an offered smaller pear an even greater fictional value. Journal of Pacific Rim Psychology, 13, e10.
[71]	Zhou, L., Yang, Y., & Li, S. (2022). Music-induced emotions influence intertemporal decision making. Cognition and Emotion, 36(2), 211-229. doi: 10.1080/02699931.2021.1995331 URL