假言推理中的概率效应

心理科学进展 ›› 2004, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (4): 505-511.

假言推理中的概率效应

邱江，张庆林

西南师范大学心理学院，重庆 4000715

收稿日期:2003-12-30 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2004-07-15 发布日期:2004-07-15
通讯作者: 张庆林

Probability Effect in Conditional Inference

Qiu Jiang,Zhang Qinglin

School of Psychology South-west Normal University, Chongqing,400715

Received:2003-12-30 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-07-15 Published:2004-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近来Oaksford等人的研究表明，概率信息对假言推理的认知过程有着显著的影响，在一定程度上可以用它来解释和预测个体在推理中的行为反应。该文针对这种新的观点，就假言推理中所涉及的前后件概率信息、条件概率信息、连接概率信息、因果概率信息以及额外前提条件等对假言推理的影响分别做了简要的阐述，并介绍了一些相关的实验研究，最后作了总结和展望。

关键词: 假言推理, 条件概率, 连接概率, 概率效应

Abstract: Recently a series of studies that made by Oaksford suggested that Probability information has a strong influence on cognitive process of conditional inference so that it can be used to explain and predict peoples’ reaction in inference. So this article reviewed probability effects that conclude probability of antecedent and consequent, conditional probability, conjunctive probability，causal probability and added antecedent in conditional inference and recommended some recently studies and viewpoints, at last made a summary and expectation.

Key words: conditional inference, conditional probability, conjunctive probability, probability effect

中图分类号:

B842.5

邱江，张庆林. (2004). 假言推理中的概率效应. 心理科学进展 , 12(4), 505-511.

Qiu Jiang,Zhang Qinglin. (2004). Probability Effect in Conditional Inference. , 12(4), 505-511.

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