ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办：中国科学院心理研究所
出版：科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 482-491.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00482

• 研究前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

判断与决策中的规划谬误

郑秋强;徐富明;罗寒冰;李彬;张慧   

  1. (青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室; 华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室, 武汉 430079)
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-01 出版日期:2014-03-15 发布日期:2014-03-15
  • 通讯作者: 徐富明

The Planning Fallacy in Judgment and Decision Making

ZHENG Qiuqiang;XU Fuming;LUO Hanbing;LI Bin;ZHANG Hui   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior, Ministry of Education (CCNU); School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2013-06-01 Online:2014-03-15 Published:2014-03-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming

PDF (PC)

2265

被引次数

4

摘要：

规划谬误是指人们在估计未来任务的完成时间时, 倾向于过度乐观, 低估任务完成时间的一种现象。规划谬误的心理机制主要包括规划谬误理论和记忆偏差理论。规划谬误的影响因素主要有认知因素、动机因素、个体的经验水平、目标任务的性质等。规划谬误的应对策略主要有与过去的经验相联系、从第三人称视角进行估计、任务分解及时间分配。未来的研究主要从规划谬误与策略性误解、乐观偏差、过分自信的关系, 规划谬误的产生根源、规划谬误的跨文化研究、规划谬误的研究范围及应用领域等方面进一步探讨。

关键词: 规划谬误, 记忆偏差, 乐观偏差, 应对策略

Abstract:

The planning fallacy refers to people’s overoptimistic tendency to underestimate the time required to complete a future task. Researchers have provided theories to explain the psychological mechanism of planning fallacy, planning fallacy theory and memory bias theory. Evidences show planning fallacy could be influenced by some factors, such as cognitive factors, motivational factors, individual experience level and task property. Previous research findings show that planning fallacy could be avoided by coping strategy. The directions for further researches of planning fallacy are discussed. Future researches are expected to clear up the delicate relationship among planning fallacy, strategic misrepresentation, optimistic bias and overconfidence and explore its original source, cross-cultural significance and practical application values.

Key words: planning fallacy, memory bias, optimistic bias, coping strategies