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   2011, Vol. 19 Issue (10) : 1417-1425     DOI:
博士论坛 |
From Multiple-play to Single-play in Risky Decision Making: Quantitative Change or Qualitative Change?
SUN Hong-Yue;SU Yin;ZHOU Kun;LI Shu
(1 Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)
(2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
(3 College of Safety Science & Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)
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Abstract  In risky decision making, the subtle interplay between single-play and multiple-play is well illustrated by the literature that has followed an early paper by Paul Samuelson (1963). The article summarized the difference between responses for single-play and multiple-play and questioned traditional theoretical explanations. Most risky decision-making theories are based on the same assumption: a rational decision maker behaves as if he or she were attempting to maximize some kind of expectation. However, based on a combination of research evidence, maybe we could infer that the multiple-play and single-play gambles were in fact so utterly different that the short run one was perhaps not based on the expectation rule. From multiple-play to single-play, it is likely to represent a strategy shift from expectation rule to non-compensatory rule (qualitative change) rather than pure change on the number of gamble times (quantitative change). The status and perspectives on the applied researches of multiple-play were introduced and the research prospect was put forward as well.
Keywords multiple-play      single-play      risky decision making      expectation rule     
Corresponding Authors: LI Shu   
Issue Date: 15 October 2011
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SUN Hong-Yue
SU Yin
ZHOU Kun
LI Shu
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SUN Hong-Yue,SU Yin,ZHOU Kun, et al. From Multiple-play to Single-play in Risky Decision Making: Quantitative Change or Qualitative Change?[J]. , 2011, 19(10): 1417-1425.
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http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/     OR     http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/Y2011/V19/I10/1417
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