关键词: 经济不平等感知, 生育意愿, 预期教养压力, 财富地位焦虑

Abstract: Persistently low fertility poses a major social challenge in many countries, and China faces an especially acute situation, with total fertility rates at an ultra-low level. Fertility intentions are shaped by economic resources, employment stability, and child-rearing costs, but individuals’ perceptions of these factors are influenced by the broader social environment. Perceived economic inequality reflects assessments of income gaps and opportunities, shaping psychological responses to uncertainty, competition, and future planning. Childbearing, as a resource-intensive and future-oriented choice, is particularly sensitive to these perceptions. The current study examined whether perceived economic inequality reduces fertility intentions and explored financial status anxiety and anticipated parenting stress as underlying psychological mechanisms. Hypotheses were tested across four studies (five sub-studies) using a combination of large-scale online data, nationwide surveys, questionnaires, and experimental manipulations. Study 1 (N = 311,528 users; 428,660 posts) analyzed Sina Weibo posts (2021–2025) with latent semantic analysis (LSA) to measure expressions of economic inequality and low fertility intentions, using linear mixed-effects models to account for non-independence of posts within users. Study 2 (N = 6,504) drew on the 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), assessing perceived economic inequality with a single item and fertility intentions via the ideal number of children. Study 3 (N = 288) surveyed childless adults of reproductive age on perceived economic inequality, fertility intentions, financial status anxiety, and anticipated parenting stress using validated multi-item scales. Mediational analyses tested whether financial status anxiety and anticipated parenting stress explained the link between perceived inequality and fertility intentions. Studies 4A (N = 237, China) and 4B (N = 250, U.S.) manipulated economic inequality via scenario-based and fictitious society tasks to examine causal effects, with participants completing the same psychological measures and demographic controls. All studies followed ethical guidelines, and sample sizes ensured sufficient statistical power. As for the results, Study 1, using linear mixed-effects models on large-scale Sina Weibo posts, revealed that public expressions of economic inequality were associated with lower fertility intentions, even after accounting for repeated observations within users. Study 2, based on the nationally representative CFPS survey, confirmed that individuals perceiving higher economic inequality reported a lower ideal number of children. Study 3 examined the underlying psychological mechanisms and showed that both financial status anxiety and anticipated parenting stress mediated this relationship, with anticipated parenting stress exerting a stronger and more robust effect than financial status anxiety. Studies 4A (China) and 4B (U.S.) employed experimental manipulations to establish causal effects, showing that participants in high-inequality conditions reported lower fertility intentions, with anticipated parenting stress consistently emerging as the key mediator across cultural contexts. In sum, across datasets, methods, and cultures, perceived economic inequality significantly reduces fertility intentions, with both financial status anxiety and anticipated parenting stress acting as mediators, and anticipated parenting stress serving as the primary psychological mechanism. This study systematically examined the impact of perceived economic inequality on fertility intentions and revealed the underlying psychological mechanisms. By linking macro-level social structures to individual decisions, it provides a novel perspective on low fertility and advances theoretical understanding of the social-psychological consequences of economic inequality.

Key words: perceived economic inequality, fertility intention, anticipated parenting stress, financial status anxiety