Discount or trade off: The psychological mechanisms of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2023.01121

Abstract

Abstract:

Individuals, enterprises, and countries need to make decisions involving different time nodes in real life. Such decisions are commonly measured by “intertemporal preference” in the field of behavioral decision-making. The most crucial kind of intertemporal decision making relevant to survival and development is the intertemporal choice with double-dated mix outcomes. However, existing intertemporal preferences measured by paradigms with pure gain outcomes were found to be poor predictors of far-sighted behavior in real life. To explore the characteristics of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, and investigate which theory could provide a satisfactory account for intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, the present project tends to carry out three research. Study 1 is designed to synthesize indicators of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes by using two different logics, providing predictive indicators for model comparison. Study 2 would develop a new ecological paradigm of measuring intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, aiming to provide a more ecological and predictive measurement for the development of the following research. Study 3 aims to adopt the Mouselab and eye-tracking technique to test which model could more satisfactorily explain intertemporal choice with double-dated outcomes, the utility comparison model or the attribute-comparison model. Having sorted out the existing compensatory and non-compensatory models, and based on behavioral choice outcomes and behavioral process techniques, we proposed an explanation of integrative trade-off models. First, when people are faced with intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, they would perform simplification of information within options with limited cognitive resources. Thus, we can determine whether decision-makers are more likely to use additive logic or integrated logic to simplify option information within options when processing. Second, based on the integration and simplification of within-option information, evidence based on the choice process helps reveal whether people apply the non-compensatory model to make an intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes. Finally, this project tends to improve predictive power for farsighted/short-sighted by introducing multiple time points, the combination of gain and loss outcomes into intertemporal choices. In summary, the current project proposes to combine evidence on choice outcomes and choice processes to test whether people make the intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes following utility or attribute comparison models/strategies, and to improve the predictive power of intertemporal preferences for realistic farsighted/short-sighted decisions. The implementation of the current project will help improve our understanding of the mechanisms of intertemporal preferences with double-dated mixed outcomes and provide a practical reference for people on which temporal strategies to choose in crises.

Key words: intertemporal choice, mixed outcomes, ecological measurement, model comparison, decision process

CLC Number:

B849: C91

SHEN Si-Chu, WANG Yao-Min, ZHANG Han-Bing, MA Jia-Tao. Discount or trade off: The psychological mechanisms of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2023, 31(7): 1121-1132.

Figures/Tables 2

References 71

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