ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R

Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 422-430.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2016.00422

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The projection bias in judgment and decision-making

XU Fuming; LI Ou; DENG Ying; LI Yan; SHI Yanwei   

  1. (School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province; Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2014-12-06 Online:2016-03-15 Published:2016-03-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming, E-mail:


Projection bias is one of the cognitive biases that individuals are prone to project their current preference to future preference prediction and to exaggerate the degree to which their future preference will resemble their current one. Many previous studies have observed and demonstrated this kind of phenomenon in different judgment and decision-making situations. Psychological mechanisms of the projection bias consist in affect-cognition processing, temporal correction, and mental simulation. The factors influencing the projection bias primarily consist of both endogenous factors (including visceral feeling, emotional state and need) and exogenous factors (including event-related information, weather condition and choosing situation). In addition, three kinds of coping strategies of projecting bias are summarized. In the end, this review points out several promising research topics that future researchers of the projection bias may probe into.

Key words: projection bias, affect-cognition processing, empathy gap, temporal correction, mental simulation