ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R

Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 905-913.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2019.00905

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Probability weighting bias in risky decision making: Psychological mechanism and optimizing strategies

SUN Qingzhou, WU Qingyuan, ZHANG Jing, JIANG Chengming, ZHAO Lei, HU Fengpei()   

  1. School of Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
  • Received:2018-08-23 Online:2019-05-15 Published:2019-03-20
  • Contact: HU Fengpei


Probability weighting bias refers to the deviation between the perceived likelihood and the objective likelihood of an event, which affects investment, insurance, doctor-patient communications, etc. The non-compensatory strategy in which people give more weight to “outcomes” than “probabilities”, and the emotional fluctuation induced by the reference point cause probability weighting bias; changing the description of “probabilities”, emotional experience of “outcomes”, reference point of “gains and losses”, and psychological distance from risk, can adjust such bias and optimize decision-making. Future studies need to further explore the issues, such as its application situations, mechanism correlations, and the identification of probability weighting bias.

Key words: probability weighting bias, outcome dimension, probability dimension, reference point, emotional experience, optimizing strategy

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