Abstract:

Base rate neglect refers to a phenomenon of bias in judgment and making decision, which results from ignoring the statistical proportion of base rate information in the judgment of related events, and only focusing on the present case information. The psychological mechanisms for this phenomenon mainly include dual-process theory and linear integration theory. There are also many factors that affect the base rate neglect, such as information characteristics, cognitive ability and so on. As to future directions, future researches are expected to deep analysis on the mechanism of the dual-process theory and put forward new perspectives based on the fuzzy trace theory, as well as promote its application on the group and public domain.

Key words: base rate neglect, dual-process theory, conflict detection, linear integration theory