多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2021.02224

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

多时点结果跨期选择涉及两个及两个以上多个时点结果的权衡, 正日益成为跨期选择的研究重点。现有研究主要从两时点结果和序列结果两方面深入探讨了多时点结果跨期选择中的诸多决策效应, 包括：隐藏的零效应、象征效应、额外金额效应、前端金额效应以及序列效应, 并运用序列模型和权衡模型对上述决策效应进行阐释。未来还应深入探索同时涉及损益结果混合的多时点结果跨期选择, 运用决策过程追踪技术揭示决策效应的过程机制。

关键词: 跨期选择, 单时点结果, 多时点结果, 序列模型, 权衡模型

Abstract:

Multiple dated outcomes in intertemporal choice involves the tradeoff of two or more outcomes at multiple time points, which has become the focus of research on intertemporal choice. According to the characteristics of the multiple dated intertemporal choice, this paper reviews the decision effects of multi-dated outcome on intertemporal choice, including: hidden zero effect, symbolic effect, extra dated money effect, front-end amount effect and sequence effect from the two-outcome and the sequence outcomes. In addition, the theoretical models such as the sequence model and the trade-off model to explain the above decision effects are explained. Finally, the paper points out the future research direction: the follow-up research should strengthen the discussion on the field of mixed gain-loss intertemporal choice, and further explore the mechanism of multiple dated intertemporal choice process by using the decision-making process tracking technology.

Key words: intertemporal choice, single dated outcome, multiple dated outcomes, sequential model, trade-off model

中图分类号:

B849: C91

孙海龙, 安薪如, 熊冠星. (2021). 多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制. 心理科学进展 , 29(12), 2224-2235.

SUN Hai-Long, AN Xin-Ru, XIONG Guan-Xing. (2021). Decision effect in multiple dated intertemporal choice and its psychological mechanisms. Advances in Psychological Science, 29(12), 2224-2235.

图/表 2

参考文献 48

[1]	江程铭, 谢铠杰, 何铨. (2018). 跨期选择研究:从单时点结果到多时点结果. 心理科学进展, 26(5), 922-927.
[2]	李纾. (2016). 决策心理:齐当别之道. 上海: 华东师范大学出版社.
[3]	苏寅, 毕研玲, 李纾, 饶俪琳. (2010). "避害"还是"趋害"? 心理科学, (2), 252-254.
[4]	孙海龙. (2018). 序列类型对跨期决策的影响:基于心理动量的视角 (博士学位论文)? 暨南大学, 广州.
[5]	孙红月, 江程铭. (2016). 跨期决策是基于选项还是基于维度? 心理科学进展, 24(3), 431-437.
[6]	孙红月, 鲁盼, 蒋元萍. (2021). 跨期决策中的负折扣现象及其机制. 心理科学进展, 29(7), 1291-1299.
[7]	Abdellaoui, M., Attema, A. E., & Bleichrodt, H.(2009). Intertemporal tradeoffs for gains and losses: An experimental measurement of discounted utility. The Economic Journal, 120(545), 845-866. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02308. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02308.x URL
[8]	Abdellaoui, M., Bleichrodt, H., & L'Haridon, O.(2013). Sign-dependence in intertemporal choice. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 47(3), 225-253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-013-9181-9
[9]	Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O.(2011). On intertemporal selfishness: How the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 182-198. https://doi.org/10.1086/658339 doi: 10.1086/658339 URL
[10]	Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O.(2015). To know and to care: How awareness and valuation of the future jointly shape consumer spending. Journal of Consumer Research, 41(6), 1469-1485. https://doi.org/10.1086/680670 doi: 10.1086/680670 URL
[11]	Białaszek, W., Ostaszewski, P., & Marcowski, P.(2016). Positive time preference for monetary sequences of rewards : The role of temporal spacing. Studia Psychologiczne, 54(2) 25-33. https://doi.org/10.2478/v1067-010-0154-9
[12]	Duffy, S., & Smith, J.(2013). Preference for increasing wages: How do people value various streams of income? Judgment and Decision Making, 8(1), 74-90. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1631845
[13]	Duffy, S., Smith, J., & Woods, K.(2015). How does the preference for increasing payments depend on the size and source of the payments? Management Science Letters, 5(12), 1071-1080. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2015.10.007
[14]	Faralla, V., Novarese, M., & Ardizzone, A.(2017). Framing effects in intertemporal choice: A nudge experiment. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 71, 13-25. doi: 10.1016/j.socec.2017.09.002 URL
[15]	Franco-Watkins, A. M., Mattson, R. E., & Jackson, M. D.(2016). Now or later? Attentional processing and intertemporal choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 29(2-3), 206-217. doi: 10.1002/bdm.v29.1 URL
[16]	Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., & O'Donoghue, T.(2002). Time discounting and time preference: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(2), 351-401. doi: 10.1257/jel.40.2.351 URL
[17]	Gathergood, J.(2012). Self-control, financial literacy and consumer over-indebtedness. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(3), 590-602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2011.11.006 doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2011.11.006 URL
[18]	Guyse, J. L., Keller, L. R., & Huynh, C. H.(2020). Valuing sequences of lives lost or saved over time: Preference for uniform sequences. Decision Analysis, 17(1), 24-38. doi: 10.1287/deca.2019.0397 URL
[19]	Harvey, C. M.(1994). The reasonableness of non-constant discounting. Journal of Public Economics, 53(1), 31-51. doi: 10.1016/0047-2727(94)90012-4 URL
[20]	Hoelzl, E., Kamleitner, B., & Kirchler, E.(2011). Loan repayment plans as sequences of instalments. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(4), 621-631. doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2011.02.002 URL
[21]	Li, S.(2004). A behavioral choice model when computational ability matters. Applied Intelligence, 20(2), 147-163. doi: 10.1023/B:APIN.0000013337.01711.c7 URL
[22]	Jiang, C. M., Hu, F. P., & Zhu, L. F.(2014). Introducing upfront losses as well as gains decreases impatience in intertemporal choices with rewards. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(4), 297-302.
[23]	Loewenstein, G., & Frederick, S.(2008). Conflicting motives in evaluations of sequences. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37(2), 221-235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-008-9051-z
[24]	Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D.(1991). Negative time preference. American Economic Review, American Economic Association.
[25]	Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D.(1992). Anomalies in intertemporal choice: Evidence and an interpretation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 573-597. doi: 10.2307/2118482 URL
[26]	Loewenstein, G. F., & Prelec, D.(1993). Preferences for sequences of outcomes. Psychological Review, 100(1), 91-108. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.100.1.91 doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.100.1.91 URL
[27]	Magen, E., Dweck, C. S., & Gross, J. J.(2008). The hidden-zero effect: Representing a single choice as an extended sequence reduces impulsive choice. Psychological Science, 19(7), 648-649. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02137.x. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02137.x URL pmid: 18727778
[28]	Mazur, J. E.(1984). Tests of an equivalence rule for fixed and variable reinforcer delays. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, 10(4), 426-436. doi: 10.1037/0097-7403.10.4.426 URL
[29]	O'Hora, D., Carey, R., Kervick, A., Crowley, D., & Dabrowski, M.(2016). Decisions in motion: Decision dynamics during intertemporal choice reflect subjective evaluation of delayed rewards. Science Report, 6, 20740. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20740 doi: 10.1038/srep20740 URL
[30]	Radu, P. T., Yi, R., Bickel, W. K., Gross, J. J., & McClure, S. M.(2011). A mechanism for reducing delay discounting by altering temporal attention. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior. 96(3), 363-385. https://doi.org/10.1901/jeab.2011.96-363 doi: 10.1901/jeab.2011.96-363 URL
[31]	Rambaud, S. C., Pascual, J. L.,& de los Ángeles del Pino Álvarez, M.(2019). Preferences over sequences of payments: A new validation of the q-exponential discounting. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 515, 332-345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.169 doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.169 URL
[32]	Rao, L.-L., & Li, S.(2011). New paradoxes in intertemporal choice. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(2), 122-129.
[33]	Read, D., Olivola, C. Y., & Hardisty, D. J.(2017). The value of nothing: Asymmetric attention to opportunity costs drives intertemporal decision making. Management Science, 63(12), 3999-4446. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2547 doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2540 URL
[34]	Read, D., & Powell, M.(2002). Reasons for sequence preferences. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15(5), 433-460. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.429 doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1099-0771 URL
[35]	Read, D., & Scholten, M.(2012). Tradeoffs between sequences: Weighing accumulated outcomes against outcome-adjusted delays. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 38(6), 1675-1688. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028216 doi: 10.1037/a0028216 URL
[36]	Reeck, C., Wall, D., & Johnson, E. J.(2017). Search predicts and changes patience in intertemporal choice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(45), 11890-11895. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1707040114
[37]	Reyes-Huerta, H.E., Valerio, C. & Carranza, R. Is the Value of Future Rewards Independent of Gains and Losses Concurrent with Intertemporal Choices?. Psychological Record 71, 149-156 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/ s40732-020-00424-z
[38]	Scholten, M., & Read, D.(2010). The psychology of intertemporal tradeoffs. Psychological Review, 117(3), 925-944. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019619 doi: 10.1037/a0019619 URL pmid: 20658858
[39]	Scholten, M., Read, D., & Sanborn, A.(2016). Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145(9), 1177-1205. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000198.supp doi: 10.1037/xge0000198 URL
[40]	Schoemann, M., Lüken, M., Grage, T., Kieslich, P. J., & Scherbaum, S.(2019). Validating mouse-tracking: How design factors influence action dynamics in intertemporal decision making. Behavior Research Methods, 51(5), 2356-2377 doi: 10.3758/s13428-018-1179-4 pmid: 30684228
[41]	Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M., Kühberger, A., Gagl, B., & Hutzler, F.(2017). Inducing thought processes: Bringing process measures and cognitive processes closer together. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(5), 1001-1013. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2007 doi: 10.1002/bdm.v30.5 URL
[42]	Shen, S. C., Huang, Y. N., Jiang, C. M., & Li, S.(2019). Can asymmetric subjective opportunity cost effect explain impatience in intertemporal choice? A replication study. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(2), 214-222.
[43]	Stillman, P. E., Krajbich, I., & Ferguson, M. J.(2020). Using dynamic monitoring of choices to predict and understand risk preferences. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(50), 31738-31747.
[44]	Sun, H. L., Li, A. M., Shen, S. C., Xiong, G. X., Rao, L.L., Zheng, R., … Li, S.(2020). Early departure, early revival: A “free from care” account of negative temporal discounting. Advances in Cognitive Psychology, 16(2), 103-116. https://doi.org/10.5709/acp-0289-0 doi: 10.5709/acp-0289-0 URL
[45]	Sun, H. Y., & Jiang, C. M.(2015). Introducing money at any time can reduce discounting in intertemporal choices with rewards: An extension of the upfront money effect. Judgment and Decision Making, 10(6), 564-570.
[46]	Urminsky, O., & Kivetz, R.(2011). Scope insensitivity and the “mere token” effect. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(2), 282-295. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.48.2.282 doi: 10.1509/jmkr.48.2.282 URL
[47]	Wu, C. Y., & He, G. B.(2012). The effects of time perspective and salience of possible monetary losses on intertemporal choice. Social Behavior and Personality: An International Journal, 40(10), 1645-1654 doi: 10.2224/sbp.2012.40.10.1645 URL
[48]	Zhao, C. X., Jiang, C. M., Zhou, L., Li, S., Rao, L. L., & Zheng, R.(2015). The hidden opportunity cost of time effect on intertemporal choice. Frontiers in Psychology, 6(March),1-7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00311

时点		T₁	T₂	T₃	T₄	T₅	决策效应
单时点	选项1		X₁				——
单时点	选项2				X₂		——
两时点结果
零	选项1		X₁		0		隐藏的零效应 (Hidden zero effect)
零	选项2		0		X₂		隐藏的零效应 (Hidden zero effect)
位置(前)	选项1	m	X₁				象征效应 (Mere token effect)
位置(前)	选项2	m			X₂		象征效应 (Mere token effect)
位置(中)	选项1		X₁	m			额外金钱效应 (Extra dated-money effect)
位置(中)	选项2			m	X₂
位置(后)	选项1		X₁			m
位置(后)	选项2				X₂	m
位置(相同)	选项1		X₁₊m				前端金额效应 (Front-end amount effect)
位置(相同)	选项2		m		X₂		前端金额效应 (Front-end amount effect)

时点		T₁	T₂	T₃	T₄	T₅	决策效应
单时点	选项1		X₁				——
单时点	选项2				X₂		——
两时点结果
零	选项1		X₁		0		隐藏的零效应 (Hidden zero effect)
零	选项2		0		X₂		隐藏的零效应 (Hidden zero effect)
位置(前)	选项1	m	X₁				象征效应 (Mere token effect)
位置(前)	选项2	m			X₂		象征效应 (Mere token effect)
位置(中)	选项1		X₁	m			额外金钱效应 (Extra dated-money effect)
位置(中)	选项2			m	X₂
位置(后)	选项1		X₁			m
位置(后)	选项2				X₂	m
位置(相同)	选项1		X₁₊m				前端金额效应 (Front-end amount effect)
位置(相同)	选项2		m		X₂		前端金额效应 (Front-end amount effect)

模型	理论基础	基本内容	两时点结果		序列结果领域
模型	理论基础	基本内容	相容证据	相斥(未证实)	相容证据	相斥(未证实)
权衡模型	基于维度	人们需要比较价值维度和时间维度之间的差异：在多个结果的累积效用与效用累积的时长之间加以权衡。其中时长受到实际延迟时间和延迟时间内结果的累积效用的影响。	隐藏的零效应象征效应额外金钱效应前端金额效应		——	序列效应
序列模型	基于选项	人们需要权衡各选项累积效用大小。对于多时点跨期而言, 每个选项的效用由三部分构成：时间折扣效用、改善效用和延展效用。获益情境下递增序列的效用大于递减序列。		隐藏的零效应象征效应额外金钱效应前端金额效应	序列效应	——

模型	理论基础	基本内容	两时点结果		序列结果领域
模型	理论基础	基本内容	相容证据	相斥(未证实)	相容证据	相斥(未证实)
权衡模型	基于维度	人们需要比较价值维度和时间维度之间的差异：在多个结果的累积效用与效用累积的时长之间加以权衡。其中时长受到实际延迟时间和延迟时间内结果的累积效用的影响。	隐藏的零效应象征效应额外金钱效应前端金额效应		——	序列效应
序列模型	基于选项	人们需要权衡各选项累积效用大小。对于多时点跨期而言, 每个选项的效用由三部分构成：时间折扣效用、改善效用和延展效用。获益情境下递增序列的效用大于递减序列。		隐藏的零效应象征效应额外金钱效应前端金额效应	序列效应	——