ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办：中国科学院心理研究所
出版：科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 886-892.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2013.00886

• 研究前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

行为决策中的比率偏差

孟贞贞;徐富明;孔诗晓;李海军;相鹏   

  1. (青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室; 华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室, 武汉 430079)
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-15 出版日期:2013-05-15 发布日期:2013-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 徐富明

Ratio Bias in Behavioral Decision

MENG Zhenzhen;XU Fuming;KONG Shixiao;LI Haijun;XIANG Peng   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education; School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2012-06-15 Online:2013-05-15 Published:2013-05-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming

PDF (PC)

1909

被引次数

2

摘要： 比率偏差是指小概率事件以不同比率形式呈现时, 人们倾向于认为以较小数字呈现的事件更不可能发生。这种现象在医疗卫生领域和职业生涯决策中有重要的应用价值。目前关于比率偏差产生的解释主要包括标准理论与认知经验自我理论。比率偏差的影响因素主要包括元认知技能、计算能力、认知视角和任务性质等。未来的研究需要从比率偏差现象的产生、心理机制及应用方面进行深入研究。

关键词: 比率偏差, 标准理论, 认知经验自我理论

Abstract: The Ratio bias occurs when people judge an unlikely event as less likely or more surprising when its probability is presented in the form of equivalent ratios of small than of larger numbers. This phenomenon is universal in people`s daily decision-making, especially in managerial and medical decisions. The paper introduces two psychological mechanisms of the ratio bias, including norm theory and cognitive-experiential self-theory. We then discuss the factors that affect the ratio bias, including metacognitive skills, numeracy, cognitive perspective, and task characters, ect. We outline several issues that deserve further investigations.

Key words: ratio bias, norm theory, cognitive-experiential self-theory