关键词: 概率判断, 过分自信, 跨文化差异

Abstract: Overconfidence refers to that subjects’ average probability judgments exceed the proportions of items they answer correctly over a wide range of conditions. A series of cross-cultural researches indicate that respondents in Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) are more risk-seeking and more overconfident than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in United States) and that the reciprocal predictions are in total opposition. This paper presents recent researches on overconfidence from traditional and alternative frameworks. The implications for cross-cultural variations in overconfidence were discussed

Key words: probability judgment, overconfidence, cross-cultural variation