ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (12): 1814-1821.

• 研究前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

经验决策:概念、研究和展望

黄志华;闫巩固;王天乐   

  1. 北京师范大学心理学院; 应用实验心理北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2011-02-28 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2011-12-15 发布日期:2011-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 闫巩固

Decisions from Experience: Concept, Researches and Prospect

HUANG Zhi-Hua;YAN Gong-Gu;WANG Tian-Le   

  1. (School of Psychology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)
    (Beijing Key Laboratory of Applied Experimental Psychology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China)
  • Received:2011-02-28 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2011-12-15 Published:2011-12-15
  • Contact: YAN Gong-Gu

摘要: 传统风险决策研究范式中, 决策信息是事先限定的, 即在决策之前呈现各个决策选项的概率和收益, 被试基于这些信息进行决策。已有研究表明, 在传统风险决策任务中人们会高估小概率事件(rare event)。然而最近出现的一种基于不完整信息的决策形式, 即经验决策却对这一发现提出了挑战。研究发现, 人们在进行经验决策时会表现出对小概率事件的低估, 经验决策和传统决策形式之间存在差异。本文主要介绍经验决策的概念及其研究, 并从学习和不确定程度等角度对两种决策形式进行再认识, 以进一步理解经验决策并提出展望。

关键词: 描述性决策, 预期理论, 经验决策, D-E差距

Abstract: In traditional paradigm of decision making research, participants make judgments or choice after playoffs and probabilities of each alternative are given. Previous studies indicated that people tend to overweight small probability when they face the problems with low probability in uncertain situation. However, this overweighting small probability phenomenon was challenged by a series of findings published recently using a new paradigm, called decisions from experience. In this paper two kinds of decisions, decisions from experience and decision from description, were introduced and differentiated from concept to methodology. D-E gap, a phenomenon showed people tend to underweight low probability event in decision-making experiments, and its different theoretical explanations were comprehensively reviewed. Finally, the implications of the study of decisions from experiences in the fields of learning and memory, human developmental, decision and judgment were discussed.

Key words: decisions from description, prospect theory, decisions from experience, D-E gap