ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 905-913.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2019.00905

• 研究前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

风险决策的概率权重偏差:心理机制与优化策略

孙庆洲, 邬青渊, 张静, 江程铭, 赵雷, 胡凤培()   

  1. 浙江工业大学管理学院, 杭州 310023
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-23 出版日期:2019-05-15 发布日期:2019-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 胡凤培 E-mail:fengpei@zjut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    * 教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC630155);国家自然科学基金青年项目(No.71801193);国家社科基金(No.14BSH070)

Probability weighting bias in risky decision making: Psychological mechanism and optimizing strategies

SUN Qingzhou, WU Qingyuan, ZHANG Jing, JIANG Chengming, ZHAO Lei, HU Fengpei()   

  1. School of Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
  • Received:2018-08-23 Online:2019-05-15 Published:2019-03-20
  • Contact: HU Fengpei E-mail:fengpei@zjut.edu.cn

摘要:

概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。“重结果轻概率”的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差; 改变“概率”的描述形式、“结果”的情绪体验、“损益”的参照点、风险的心理距离等可调整权重偏差、优化决策。未来需深究权重偏差的适用情境、机制关联及偏差辨别等问题。

关键词: 概率权重偏差, 结果维度, 概率维度, 参照点, 情绪体验, 优化策略

Abstract:

Probability weighting bias refers to the deviation between the perceived likelihood and the objective likelihood of an event, which affects investment, insurance, doctor-patient communications, etc. The non-compensatory strategy in which people give more weight to “outcomes” than “probabilities”, and the emotional fluctuation induced by the reference point cause probability weighting bias; changing the description of “probabilities”, emotional experience of “outcomes”, reference point of “gains and losses”, and psychological distance from risk, can adjust such bias and optimize decision-making. Future studies need to further explore the issues, such as its application situations, mechanism correlations, and the identification of probability weighting bias.

Key words: probability weighting bias, outcome dimension, probability dimension, reference point, emotional experience, optimizing strategy

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