ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办：中国科学院心理研究所
出版：科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (10): 1637-1646.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.01637

• 研究前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

判断与决策中的基线比例忽略

刘程浩;徐富明;史燕伟;李燕;张慧   

  1. (华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室; 青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室, 武汉 430079)
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-31 出版日期:2014-10-15 发布日期:2014-10-15
  • 通讯作者: 徐富明, E-mail: fumingxu@126.com

The Base Rate Neglect in Judgment and Decision-making LIU Chenghao; XU Fuming; SHI Yanwei; LI Yan; ZHANG Hui

LIU Chenghao; XU Fuming; SHI Yanwei; LI Yan; ZHANG Hui   

  1. (School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province; Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2013-12-31 Online:2014-10-15 Published:2014-10-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming, E-mail: fumingxu@126.com

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被引次数

4

摘要：

基线比例忽略是指在事件的判断中忽略相关事件统计学上的信息, 而只关注当前呈现的案例信息, 从而造成判断和决策偏差的一种现象。目前对这一现象的解释主要包括双加工理论和线性整合理论, 而影响基线比例忽略的因素有许多方面, 如信息特征、认知能力等等。在未来研究中, 应该深入分析双加工理论的作用机制以及依据模糊痕迹理论提出新的研究视角, 同时拓展在团体和公共领域中的应用性研究。

关键词: 基线比例忽略, 双加工理论, 冲突探测, 线性整合理论

Abstract:

Base rate neglect refers to a phenomenon of bias in judgment and making decision, which results from ignoring the statistical proportion of base rate information in the judgment of related events, and only focusing on the present case information. The psychological mechanisms for this phenomenon mainly include dual-process theory and linear integration theory. There are also many factors that affect the base rate neglect, such as information characteristics, cognitive ability and so on. As to future directions, future researches are expected to deep analysis on the mechanism of the dual-process theory and put forward new perspectives based on the fuzzy trace theory, as well as promote its application on the group and public domain.

Key words: base rate neglect, dual-process theory, conflict detection, linear integration theory