ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

• •    

人工智能辅助应急决策与处置的经验阻断效应: 内涵、生成与影响机制

曹蓉, 史济灵, 刘观鑫, 张亚冉, 高阳   

  1. 西北大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院, 陕西 710127 中国
  • 收稿日期:2026-05-15 修回日期:2026-09-16 接受日期:2026-09-28
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(25AZZ008)

The Experience-Blocking Effect of Artificial Intelligence Assistance in Emergency Decision-Making and Response: Conceptualization, Formation, and Impact Mechanisms

Rong Cao, Jilin Shi, Guanxin Liu, Yaran Zhang, Yang Gao   

  1. School of Public Administration/School of Emergency Management, NorthWest University 710127, China
  • Received:2026-05-15 Revised:2026-09-16 Accepted:2026-09-28

摘要: 人工智能(AI)正加速嵌入应急决策与处置中的信息研判、会商支持、方案生成和复盘评估等关键环节,AI辅助能够扩大信息覆盖、提升态势整合效率并支持复杂决策。然而,应急管理者经验性判断并非任务完成后的自然副产物,而是依赖原始情境接触、独立判断生成、行动后果校准和反思转化逐步形成。当AI由支持管理者转向替代其完成上述关键活动时,当前任务表现与后续经验增长可能发生分离。本文提出“人工智能经验阻断效应”(experience-blocking effect,EBE),将其界定为AI辅助任务中原始情境接触、判断生成、后果承担与反馈校准、反思转化受到压缩、外移、弱化或浅化的近端过程性多维状态。围绕这一概念,本文设计三项相互衔接的研究:研究一界定EBE的内涵、识别关键表征并构建测量框架;研究二将替代式AI使用操作化为人—AI—任务配置,检验其是否提高四类EBE表征的强度,并将当前任务绩效作为平行比较结果;研究三通过纵向、多轮和高仿真情境,检验EBE是否通过限制情境线索知觉学习和行动—结果关联学习,增加个人经验内化不足,并通过减少成员可供外化的经验素材及其团队转化,增加团队经验外化不足。该框架将AI辅助应急管理的评价由即时任务绩效拓展至经验学习与个体—团队经验沉淀,为构建兼顾任务效能和管理者经验性专业能力发展的人智协同模式提供理论基础与实践启示。

关键词: 人工智能, 应急决策与处置, 经验阻断效, 替代式 AI 使用, 人智协同

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in key stages of emergency decision-making and response, including information assessment, situation evaluation, plan generation, action coordination, and after-action reflection. Although AI can broaden information coverage, improve situational integration, and support complex decisions, emergency managers’ experience-based judgment is not an automatic by-product of task completion. It develops through first-hand exposure to raw situational cues, independent judgment generation, calibration against action consequences, and reflective transformation. When AI shifts from supporting managers to substituting for these activities, current task performance may become decoupled from subsequent experiential growth. We introduce the artificial intelligence experience-blocking effect (EBE), defined as a proximal, multidimensional task-process state in which AI assistance compresses, displaces, weakens, or renders superficial managers’ exposure to raw situations, generation of judgments, ownership of consequences and feedback-based calibration, and reflective transformation. We develop an integrated framework linking substitutive AI use, EBE, experiential learning processes, and experience consolidation across three interrelated studies. Study 1 clarifies the meaning and boundaries of EBE, identifies four formative dimensions, and develops a measurement instrument. Study 2 operationalizes substitutive AI use as a human–AI–task configuration, tests whether it increases the four EBE dimensions, and treats current task performance as a parallel comparison outcome. Study 3 uses longitudinal, repeated, high-fidelity simulations to test whether EBE contributes to deficits in individual experience internalization by constraining situational-cue perceptual learning and action–outcome associative learning, and to deficits in team experience externalization by reducing the experiential material that members can articulate and by limiting its transformation through team learning. The framework extends the evaluation of AI-assisted emergency management beyond immediate task performance to experiential learning and the consolidation of individual and team experience, offering theoretical and practical guidance for human–AI collaboration that preserves both task effectiveness and the development of managers’ experience-based expertise.

Key words: artificial intelligence, emergency and crisis management, experience-blocking effect, substitutive AI use, human-AI collaboration