ISSN 0439-755X
CN 11-1911/B
主办:中国心理学会
   中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (04): 427-433.

• •    下一篇

确定、不确定及风险状态下选择反转:“齐当别”选择方式的解释

李纾   

  1. 中国科学院心理研究所社会与经济行为研究中心,北京,100101
  • 收稿日期:2003-12-26 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2005-07-30 发布日期:2005-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 李纾

CHOICE REVERSALS ACROSS CERTAINTY, UNCERTAINTY AND RISK: THE EQUATE-TO-DIFFERENTIATE INTERPRETATION

Li Shu   

  1. Center for Social & Economic Behavior, Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10010, China
  • Received:2003-12-26 Revised:1900-01-01 Published:2005-07-30 Online:2005-07-30
  • Contact: Li Shu

摘要: 应用广义“弱优势”(weak dominance)模型检验确定、不确定及风险状态下的选择反转现象。该模型将人们的二择一选择行为描述为一种搜寻一备择方案在主观上优越于另一备择方案的过程。即:在甲方案在某一维度上优越于乙方案,而乙方案在另一维度上优越于甲方案的情况下,为了利用“弱优势”(weak dominance)原则达成决策,人们必须在一维度上将两者间较小的差异人为地“齐同”掉,而在另一维度上将“辨别”两者间较大的差异作为最终选择的依据。因此,在每次选择时,如果不认为最大的差异都是来自同一维度,就会导致选择反转。此项研究设计了一“匹配”任务,并借此检验,在不同的决策状态下,判断两备择方案在各维度上的差异是否能预测人们的重复选择变异。总的测试-再测试结果支持“齐当别”选择方式的解释。其发现表明:重复选择之所以可能是一致的,并不是因为每次都认定被选中的备择方案具有最大值,而是因为每次选择都认定最大的差异来自一固定的维度。

关键词: 重复选择, 选择反转, 弱优势原则

Abstract: A generalized weak dominance approach is used to test choice reversals across certainty, uncertainty and risk. In the case of pairwise choice where each alternative is generally better than the other on a single dimension, this approach models much human choice behavior as a process in which people seek to equate smaller difference between alternatives on one dimension, thus leaving the greater one-dimensional difference to be differentiated as the determinant of the final choice. The choice reversals are therefore seen as a consequence of the fact that what is seen as the greatest one-dimensional difference on one trial is no longer seen as the greatest on another trial. A “matching” task was designed to examine whether the knowledge of the value difference of the paired outcomes along each dimension will permit prediction of preferential choice. The overall test-retest results for various choosing tasks favor the equate-to-differentiate explanation. The finding supports the claim that the repeated choices can be consistent not because the chosen alternative is always of the greatest overall worth but because final choice is consistently based on a single fixed dimension on each trial.

Key words: repeated choices, choice reversals, weak dominance

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