样例学习条件下的因果力估计

心理学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (01): 51-61.

样例学习条件下的因果力估计

王墨耘,傅小兰

1中国科学院心理研究所，北京 100101 2华南师范大学心理学系，广州 510631

收稿日期:2003-12-24 修回日期:1900-01-01 发布日期:2005-01-30 出版日期:2005-01-30
通讯作者: 王墨耘

CAUSAL JUDGMENTS IN THE TRIAL-BY-TRIAL PRESENTATION

Wang Moyun, Fu Xiaolan

Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2003-12-24 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2005-01-30 Published:2005-01-30
Contact: Wang Moyun

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在逐个呈现因果样例的条件下，考察单一因果关系因果力估计的特点，同时检验联想解释，概率对比模型，权重DP模型，效力PC理论和pCI规则。实验让65名大学生被试估计不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力。实验结果表明：（1）对产生原因的因果力估计符合权重DP模型；（2）对预防原因的因果力估计较多符合效力PC理论；（3）因果力估计具有复杂多样性，难以用统一的模式加以描述和概括。

关键词: 因果力估计, 概率对比模型, 效力PC理论, 权重DP模型, pCI规则, 逐个呈现样例

Abstract: An experiment was conducted to investigate human causal judgments in the trial-by-trial presentation, and to test the associative theory, the power PC theory, the probabilistic contrast model, the weighted DP model, and the pCI rule. The participants were 65 college students. It was found that causal judgments had three characteristics: (a) Causal judgments were in accord with the weighted DP model in generative causes, (b) more causal judgments were in accord with the power PC theory in preventive causes, and (c) causal judgments were difficult to be described and generalized with a uniform pattern.

Key words: estimates of causal power, the power PC theory, the probabilistic contrast model, the weighted DP model, pCI rule, trial-by-trial presentation

中图分类号:

B842

王墨耘,傅小兰. (2005). 样例学习条件下的因果力估计. 心理学报, 37(01), 51-61.

Wang Moyun, Fu Xiaolan. (2005). CAUSAL JUDGMENTS IN THE TRIAL-BY-TRIAL PRESENTATION. , 37(01), 51-61.

[1]	王墨耘,傅小兰. 用不同外部表征方式集中呈现信息条件下的因果力判断[J]. 心理学报, 2004, 36(03): 298-306.
[2]	王墨耘,傅小兰. 因果力比较范式下对效力PC理论的检验[J]. 心理学报, 2004, 36(02): 160-167.