ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R

Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2013, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 886-892.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2013.00886

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Ratio Bias in Behavioral Decision

MENG Zhenzhen;XU Fuming;KONG Shixiao;LI Haijun;XIANG Peng   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education; School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2012-06-15 Online:2013-05-15 Published:2013-05-15
  • Contact: XU Fuming

Abstract: The Ratio bias occurs when people judge an unlikely event as less likely or more surprising when its probability is presented in the form of equivalent ratios of small than of larger numbers. This phenomenon is universal in people`s daily decision-making, especially in managerial and medical decisions. The paper introduces two psychological mechanisms of the ratio bias, including norm theory and cognitive-experiential self-theory. We then discuss the factors that affect the ratio bias, including metacognitive skills, numeracy, cognitive perspective, and task characters, ect. We outline several issues that deserve further investigations.

Key words: ratio bias, norm theory, cognitive-experiential self-theory