Abstract: In the early days of the 1970s, Kahneman and Tversky discovered that people do not follow the Bayes theorem and inflate conditional probability judgements of rare events because of neglecting the base rate in the problem. After that, a lot of studies of this issue have been performed using textual paradigm and experiential paradigm and many theories were developed, mainly including heuristics(representativeness and availability), natural sampling space hypotheses, frequency effect, and sampling approach theory.

Key words: Bayesian reasoning, base rate neglect, researching paradigm