关键词: 短视风险漠视, 序贯决策, 决策过程, 决策目标

Abstract:

In real life, decision-makers often intentionally ignore “high probability, large loss” risks, leading to irreparable consequences. For example, in business, companies may prioritize short-term profits over long-term goals, disregarding accumulated risks. Similarly, in personal life, individuals often deliberately ignore and sacrifice long-term health for immediate pleasures, such as prolonged sitting, inactivity, or late-night gaming, despite knowing the risks.

To explore the underlying scientific issues of this phenomenon, this project introduces the novel concept of “myopic risk ignorance.” Specifically, this concept refers to the difficulty decision-makers encounter in accurately perceiving or assessing the interdependencies among repeated similar decisions due to myopic evaluations and cognitive limitations. As a result, driven by the pursuit of immediate gains in individual decisions, decision-makers often sacrifice globally optimal goals and gradually ignore long-term risks. The phenomenon of myopic risk ignorance involves two consecutive choices in each round: first, whether to “execute” or “not execute” a certain risky behavior, and second, if they choose to execute, they need to decide the degree of execution. For the risky behavior, the decision to “execute” contains obvious “immediate small gains,” but it is also accompanied by “dynamic losses” that are often deliberately ignored. The objective probability and extent of these losses gradually increase with the degree of execution and the number of execution rounds. Choosing “not to execute” requires resisting immediate gratification, accurately assessing potential losses, and pursuing sustainable long-term goals.

Myopic risk ignorance is a specific attitude within the context of sequential decision making, where individuals or organizations make a series of decisions over time to achieve optimal overall goals. Despite its prevalence, existing research primarily focuses on one-shot decisions, neglecting genuine behavioral patterns in sequential decision making. This limitation has impeded exploration of myopic risk ignorance. To address this gap, the project aims to uncover patterns and key characteristics of myopic risk ignorance within the framework of sequential decision making. It also seeks to develop a research paradigm to measure attitudes and explore the underlying mechanisms within decision processes and goals. This project is divided into three main studies: phenomenon revelation (Study 1), attitude measurement (Study 2), and mechanism exploration (Study 3).

Study 1 aims to construct a scenario questionnaire to measure individuals’ myopic risk ignorance in daily decision making, verifying the phenomenon’s universality and robustness. Study 2, based on the characteristics of myopic risk ignorance - where individuals continuously choose to execute risky behavior or deepen the degree of execution, gaining “small gains,” but at the same time, they are accompanied by “dynamic losses with gradually increasing probability and magnitude” - will design a card-turning task as an abstract simulation of real-life decision making. Additionally, this study will use both the scenario questionnaire and the task paradigm to assess myopic risk ignorance attitudes, testing the consistency of these measurements. Study 3 intends to explore the underlying mechanisms by examining the relevance of decision processes and the multiplicity of decision goals in sequential decision making, laying the groundwork for future behavioral interventions.

In summary, this project offers several contributions. It scientifically defines myopic risk ignorance, opening new theoretical perspectives for related research and expanding the fields of risky and intertemporal decision making. By analyzing decision characteristics over rounds, it provides a foundation for future research and new insights into behavioral decision theories. Moreover, exploring the mechanisms of myopic risk ignorance from both process and goal perspectives establishes a basis for prediction and intervention systems in related social phenomena. The research findings have practical applications, supporting the development of intervention strategies and sequential decision-making support systems that help individuals and organizations identify, assess, and mitigate long-term risks, ultimately enhancing long-term welfare.

Key words: myopic risk ignorance, sequential decision making, decision process, decision goal