后见之明研究综述

心理科学进展 ›› 2002, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4): 382-387.

后见之明研究综述

杜建政

河北师范大学教育科学学院石家庄050091

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2002-08-25 发布日期:2002-08-25
通讯作者: 杜建政

A REVIEW ON THE RESEARCH ON HINDSIGHT BIAS

Du Jianzheng (Education Science College, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050091)

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2002-08-25 Published:2002-08-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 后见之明指后见判断(可得益于事件结果反馈的判断)与先见判断(不知晓事件结果时的判断)的系统差异,其研究范式大体可分为两类,假定型设计和记忆型设计。后见效应的研究,具有重大的理论价值和应用价值。文章对后见效应的研究范式、研究结果、及其有关理论进行了简要综述,并对其应用价值加以评述。

关键词: 后见之明, 假定型设计, 记忆型设计, 早知如此效应。

Abstract: The hindsight bias is operationally defined as the systematical difference between hindsight judgments, that is, judgments made with benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, and foresight judgments, that is, judgments made without knowledge of the outcome. Hindsight distortion is a pervasive bias that has occurred in a variety of political, managerial, legal, sports, and health care settings. Hindsight bias is investigated by two kinds of designs, that is, hypothetical design and memory design. Research on hindsight bias has many theoretical and practical implications. This present paper reviews research on hindsight bias.

Key words: hindsight bias, hypothetical design, memory design, know-it-all-along effect

杜建政. (2002). 后见之明研究综述. 心理科学进展 , 10(4), 382-387.

Du Jianzheng (Education Science College, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050091). (2002). A REVIEW ON THE RESEARCH ON HINDSIGHT BIAS. , 10(4), 382-387.