时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2022.01106

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“时间”是跨期决策的“必需品”, 人们感知到的延迟时间决定跨期决策的结果。近年来, 研究者发现“时间长度感知”、“时间资源感知”和“时间框架感知”是时间感知作用于跨期决策的主要方式。时间感知的神经作用机制包含微观层面和宏观层面两种。“对数/指数时间折扣模型”、“感知时间基础模型”及“多模态漂移扩散模型”解释了时间感知的作用方式。然而, 现有理论模型还存在诸多局限, 主要包括“长短时距预测偏差”和“实际决策与预期决策偏差”两个方面。因此, 深入探讨时间感知影响跨期决策的基本方式, 分析现有理论模型的局限性并提出整合的机制框架具有十分重要的意义。未来研究亟需进一步整合时间感知的理论模型, 开展脑机制与应用方面的研究, 从深层揭露时间感知的作用本质, 帮助个人与社会更理性地决策。

关键词: 时间感知, 跨期决策, 时间决策模型, 动态时间感知视角

Abstract:

Intertemporal decision-making is very frequent in life, and they require individuals to weigh the outcomes at different points of time before making a choice. Time and value are the basic dimensions of intertemporal decision-making, and decision-makers have to consider value as well as more about the impact of time interval. Although many studies have explored the value dimension, there are still many doubts in the time dimension. A growing body of research suggests that people's subjective perception of the time interval, as opposed to the objective time interval, is the direct factor influencing the intertemporal decision. Therefore, the traditional exponential discount and hyperbolic models do not explain the variability in intertemporal decision-making in terms of time perception. How does time perception affect individuals' intertemporal decision-making? What are the theoretical and neural mechanisms behind the role of time perception? What are the shortcomings of the existing theoretical models? Answering these queries is essential for further research on the relationship between time perception and intertemporal decision-making.
The role of time perception on intertemporal decision-making mainly consists of three ways: (1) Time length perception, which refers to people's subjective estimation of the distance of delay time. The shorter the perceived time length, the less patience people have to wait for the delayed benefit. (2) Time resource perception, which refers to the estimation of how much time resources people have at their disposal. The less time resources people perceive, the more they prefer immediate benefits. (3) Time frame perception, which refers to the change of time description will affect individuals' decision preferences. For example, when the direction of time points to the future, and people are more likely to magnify the value of future gains subjectively.
In terms of the neural mechanisms underlying the role of temporal perception, intertemporal decision-making at the micro-level is closely related to the activation of temporal length perception, subjective value assessment, and impulsivity-related brain regions. In contrast, intertemporal decision-making is closely related to cortico-limbic-striatal neural circuits at the macro level. Researchers have proposed different theoretical models to explain the behavioral dimension of the role of temporal perception. The mainstream theories mainly include the logarithmic/exponential time discount model, the perceived time based model, and the multi-attribute drift diffusion model. The logarithmic/exponential time discount model is constructed based on the exponential discount model, which replaces the original objective time distance with time length perception. The perceived time based model is built to describe the variability of individual time perception. The Multi-attribute drift diffusion model is mainly used to describe the contribution of the attention to the time or value dimension of the decision-making. We believe that the above models only expose the mechanism of time perception from one aspect of the psychological process and lack a unified theory to describe the process of intertemporal decision-making as a whole. In general, the existing models have two limitations: (1) The effect of time perception on intertemporal decision-making differs between the long and short time spacing conditions. (2) People's preferences for intertemporal decision-making differ in actual and expected situations. In order to more accurately describe and explain the psychological mechanism of time perception influencing intertemporal decision making, future studies should strengthen the exploration of the process mechanism and try to construct a unified theoretical model of time perception-intertemporal decision making. Meanwhile, the study of neurophysiological mechanisms should be strengthened, from which the rationality of the theoretical model can be verified. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the application value of the research and design the training method of time perception to reduce the probability of people's irrational decision-making.

Key words: time perception, intertemporal decision-making, time decision-making model, dynamic time perception perspective

毕翠华, 齐怀远. (2022). 时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索. 心理科学进展 , 30(5), 1106-1118.

BI Cuihua, QI Huaiyuan. (2022). The role of time perception in intertemporal decision-making: New exploration of time decision-making model. Advances in Psychological Science, 30(5), 1106-1118.

图/表 3

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模型名称与提出者	时间感知与客观时间的构建		整体模型
模型名称与提出者	公式	公式解释	公式	公式解释
对数/指数时间折扣模型 Takahashi 等人(2005) Takahashi 等人(2008)	$\text{T}=\text{aln }(1+\text{bD})$ (a) $\text{T}=\text{c}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}$ (b)	时间感知与客观时距呈对数关系; T为对延迟时间的时间长度感知; a为自由参数, b是与自我控制有关参数; D为延迟时距, c自由参数; s为冲动性参数。D为延迟时距。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kT}}}$ (1) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kaln}(1+\text{bD})}}$ (2a) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kc}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}}}$ (2b) $\text{SV}=\text{A}/{{(1+\text{bD})}^{ka}}$ (3a) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kc}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}}}$ (3b)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; e为自然对数底。
感知时间基础模型 Kim和 Zauberman (2009)	$\text{T}=\text{ }\!\!\alpha\!\!\text{ }{{\text{D}}^{\text{ }\!\!\beta\!\!\text{ }}}$	时间感知与客观时距呈指数关系; T为对延迟时间的时间长度感知; α为时间收缩程度, 即感知值与客观值之比; β时间敏感度, 反映个体差异; D为延迟时距。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kT}}}$ (1) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{k }\!\!\alpha\!\!\text{ }{{\text{D}}^{\text{ }\!\!\beta\!\!\text{ }}}}}$ (2)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; e为自然对数底。
多模态漂移扩散模型 Amasino 等人(2019)	$\text{T}=\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}\left( {{\text{T}}_{left}}-{{\text{T}}_{tight}} \right)$	时间感知是左侧和右侧选项的时间差与注意程度的函数。${{\text{T}}_{left}},$ ${{\text{T}}_{tight}}$分别为左侧选项和右侧选项的时间; $\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}$为整体对时间的注意程度。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}/(1+\text{kT})$ (1) $\begin{align} & \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}= \\ & \ \ \ \ \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}+\frac{{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}{{\text{A}}_{left}}}{1+{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}{{\text{T}}_{left}}}-\frac{{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}{{\text{A}}_{right}}}{1+{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}{{\text{T}}_{tight}}} \\ \end{align}$(2) $\begin{align} & \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}=\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}+\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}\left( {{\text{A}}_{left}}-{{\text{A}}_{tight}} \right)- \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}\left( {{\text{T}}_{left}}-{{\text{T}}_{tight}} \right) \\ \end{align}$(3)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; $\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}$是最终时刻的主观收益值; $\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}$为上一时刻的最终主观收益值; ${{\text{A}}_{left}},$ ${{\text{A}}_{tight}}$分别为左侧选项和右侧选项的价值; ${{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}$与${{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}$分别为对价值和时间的注意程度; $\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}$为整体对价值的注意程度。

模型名称与提出者	时间感知与客观时间的构建		整体模型
模型名称与提出者	公式	公式解释	公式	公式解释
对数/指数时间折扣模型 Takahashi 等人(2005) Takahashi 等人(2008)	$\text{T}=\text{aln }(1+\text{bD})$ (a) $\text{T}=\text{c}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}$ (b)	时间感知与客观时距呈对数关系; T为对延迟时间的时间长度感知; a为自由参数, b是与自我控制有关参数; D为延迟时距, c自由参数; s为冲动性参数。D为延迟时距。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kT}}}$ (1) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kaln}(1+\text{bD})}}$ (2a) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kc}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}}}$ (2b) $\text{SV}=\text{A}/{{(1+\text{bD})}^{ka}}$ (3a) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kc}{{\text{D}}^{\text{s}}}}}$ (3b)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; e为自然对数底。
感知时间基础模型 Kim和 Zauberman (2009)	$\text{T}=\text{ }\!\!\alpha\!\!\text{ }{{\text{D}}^{\text{ }\!\!\beta\!\!\text{ }}}$	时间感知与客观时距呈指数关系; T为对延迟时间的时间长度感知; α为时间收缩程度, 即感知值与客观值之比; β时间敏感度, 反映个体差异; D为延迟时距。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{kT}}}$ (1) $\text{SV}=\text{A}{{\text{e}}^{-\text{k }\!\!\alpha\!\!\text{ }{{\text{D}}^{\text{ }\!\!\beta\!\!\text{ }}}}}$ (2)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; e为自然对数底。
多模态漂移扩散模型 Amasino 等人(2019)	$\text{T}=\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}\left( {{\text{T}}_{left}}-{{\text{T}}_{tight}} \right)$	时间感知是左侧和右侧选项的时间差与注意程度的函数。${{\text{T}}_{left}},$ ${{\text{T}}_{tight}}$分别为左侧选项和右侧选项的时间; $\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}$为整体对时间的注意程度。	$\text{SV}=\text{A}/(1+\text{kT})$ (1) $\begin{align} & \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}= \\ & \ \ \ \ \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}+\frac{{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}{{\text{A}}_{left}}}{1+{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}{{\text{T}}_{left}}}-\frac{{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}{{\text{A}}_{right}}}{1+{{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}{{\text{T}}_{tight}}} \\ \end{align}$(2) $\begin{align} & \text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}=\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}+\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}\left( {{\text{A}}_{left}}-{{\text{A}}_{tight}} \right)- \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}\left( {{\text{T}}_{left}}-{{\text{T}}_{tight}} \right) \\ \end{align}$(3)	SV为折扣后收益的主观价值; A为延迟收益的客观价值; k为延迟折扣; $\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t}}$是最终时刻的主观收益值; $\text{S}{{\text{V}}_{t-1}}$为上一时刻的最终主观收益值; ${{\text{A}}_{left}},$ ${{\text{A}}_{tight}}$分别为左侧选项和右侧选项的价值; ${{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}$与${{\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }}_{T}}$分别为对价值和时间的注意程度; $\text{ }\!\!\delta\!\!\text{ }{{\text{ }\!\!\grave{\ }\!\!\text{ }}_{A}}$为整体对价值的注意程度。