关键词: 社会流动信念, 社会变迁与人类发展理论, 横断历史元分析, 社会变迁

Abstract: Social mobility beliefs refer to individuals' perceptions and expectations of the possibility of mobility across social classes for themselves or for others, and play an important role in promoting upward mobility, social fairness, and social stability. Notably, social mobility beliefs are not remain permanent within a society, but may shift along with changes in macro-social conditions. Over the past decade, China has experienced rapid and multifaceted social changes. The economy has continued to grow, higher education has further expanded, the Internet has been widely adopted, and the legal and anti-corruption systems have undergone substantial development. At the same time, economic inequality has remained at a relatively high level, and competition in education and the labor market has intensified. However, whether Chinese people's social mobility beliefs have shifted along with these societal changes remains unclear. The present research meta-analyzed 50 studies conducted between 2014 and 2024, with 57 independent samples and 28,089 participants, and further examined the macro-social correlates of these beliefs. We conducted cross-temporal meta-analysis with the year of data collection as the predictor, while controlling for sample type, measurement dimension, and scale type. We also examined associations between social mobility beliefs and a set of macro-social indicators—including modernization indicators (e.g., GDP per capita, gross enrollment rate in higher education, urbanization rate, and Internet penetration rate), governance indicators (e.g., the number of effective laws, the number of corruption-related cases filed, and national education expenditure), and economic risk indicators (e.g., the Gini coefficient and economic slowdown)—measured at multiple time lags. Results showed that, contrary to predictions of decline derived from modernization-based perspectives, Chinese people's social mobility beliefs remained stable from 2014 to 2024, showing no significant temporal trend. Subgroup analyses across measurement dimensions (individual-level vs. society-level beliefs) and sample groups (middle school students, college students, and adults) yielded the same pattern. Analyses of macro-social correlates further revealed that modernization and governance indicators were positively associated with social mobility beliefs, whereas economic risk indicators showed no significant associations. These results suggest that sustained economic and educational development, together with the improvement in governance effectiveness, may constitute the macro-level foundations supporting the stability of social mobility beliefs. In summary, Chinese people's social mobility beliefs have remained stable over the past decade despite rapid and multifaceted social changes, and this stability appears to be supported by ongoing developmental and governance progress. The current research extends the theory of social change and human development to the Chinese context and provides two refinements to the framework. Specifically, the influence of macro-social changes on core social attitudes should be examined according to specific dimensions of social change, and developmental and governance factors may serve as important macro-level foundations supporting social mobility beliefs. The findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of social attitudes during periods of rapid social transformation.

Key words: social mobility belief, theory of social change and human development, cross-temporal meta-analysis, social change