Changing trends of Chinese people’s generalized trust: A dynamic analysis of the age-period-cohort effect

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2025.0463

Abstract

Abstract:

Utilizing the data from the Chinese General Social Survey (2003-2021), this study describes and analyzes the dynamic changing trend of generalized trust among Chinese people and its influencing factors. The research finds that generalized trust shows a “U” -shaped curve trend with the increase of individual age (age effect), and generally presents an upward trend with different measurement periods (period effect). At the same time, generalized trust shows an inverted “U” -shaped trend with different generations (cohort effect): it gradually rises from the 1925 generation, turns positive from the 1940 generation, then enters a relatively stable plateau period between the 1945 and 1970 generations, begins to decline rapidly after the 1975 generation, falls to the lowest value after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the 1990 generation, and then slowly rises. The study also finds that kinship and income gap have a significant negative impact on the change of generalized trust, while marketization coefficient, population mobility rate, number of social organizations, average years of education, and government trust index have a positive impact on the change of generalized trust. This paper embeds the diachronic change characteristics of generalized trust into the different stages of social development in China over the past century and the different trust patterns generated thereby for interpretation. The research results enrich the academic description and theoretical explanation of the changing trend of generalized trust among Chinese people.

Key words: generalized trust, age-period-cohort effect, social change

GAO Xuede, MA Haoyun. (2025). Changing trends of Chinese people’s generalized trust: A dynamic analysis of the age-period-cohort effect. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 57(3), 463-478.

Figures/Tables 20

References 72

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	Pre-founding (Traditional Society)	Post-founding to Early Reform and Opening-up	After Reform and Opening-up
Trust Pattern	Relational Trust	Unit-based Trust	Institutional Trust
Source of Trust	Tradition and Customs	Patronage and Distribution	Contracts and Institutions
Pivot of Trust	Family-oriented	State-oriented	Society-Oriented
Trust Environment	Stable Space-Time	Certain Space-Time	Uncertain Space-Time
Nature of Relationships	Acquaintance Relationships	Comrade-in-arms Relationships	Stranger Relationships
Psychological Basis	Emotion	Recognition	Cognition
Risk Level	Low	Low	High
Population Mobility	Low	Low	High
Generalized trust	Low	High	Low

	Pre-founding (Traditional Society)	Post-founding to Early Reform and Opening-up	After Reform and Opening-up
Trust Pattern	Relational Trust	Unit-based Trust	Institutional Trust
Source of Trust	Tradition and Customs	Patronage and Distribution	Contracts and Institutions
Pivot of Trust	Family-oriented	State-oriented	Society-Oriented
Trust Environment	Stable Space-Time	Certain Space-Time	Uncertain Space-Time
Nature of Relationships	Acquaintance Relationships	Comrade-in-arms Relationships	Stranger Relationships
Psychological Basis	Emotion	Recognition	Cognition
Risk Level	Low	Low	High
Population Mobility	Low	Low	High
Generalized trust	Low	High	Low

Variable	Code	Frequency/Percentage		Variable	Code	Frequency/Percentage
Year	2003	5866	(6.15%)	Average Years of Education in Cohort	Mean (SD)	9.7718	(1.5997)
	2005	10262	(10.76%)	Birth Cohort Size	Mean (SD)	10.1712	(2.5055)
	2010	11759	(12.33%)	Kinship in Cohort	Mean (SD)	2.4157	(0.0905)
	2012	11758	(12.33%)	Gender	Male	45752	(48.00%)
	2013	11423	(11.98%)		Female	49596	(52.00%)
	2015	10927	(11.46%)	Ethnicity	Han	87985	(92.30%)
	2017	12533	(13.14%)		Minority	7363	(7.70%)
	2018	12741	(13.36%)	Political Affiliation	Party Member	11095	(11.60%)
	2021	8079	(8.47%)		Non-Party Member	84253	(88.40%)
Age	Mean (SD)	48.92	(16.440)	Marital Status	Married	74682	(78.30%)
Marketization Index	Mean (SD)	7.3697	(0.7987)		Unmarried and Others	20666	(21.70%)
Population Mobility Rate	Mean (SD)	19.00%	(4.9867)	Household Registration	Urban	47144	(49.40%)
Number of Social Organizations	Mean (SD)	5.7480	(0.1564)		Rural	48204	(50.60%)
Government Trust Index	Mean (SD)	77.31	(7.5404)	Education Level	Higher Education	16170	(17.00%)
Gini Coefficient	Mean (SD)	0.4724	(0.0070)		Non-Higher Education	79113	(83.00%)
Average Education Level of Period	Mean (SD)	9.8508	(0.6382)	Kinship Relationship	High Kinship	34514	(36.20%)
Kinship Relationship of Period	Mean (SD)	2.4169	(0.5303)		Low Kinship	60803	(63.80%)

Variable	Code	Frequency/Percentage		Variable	Code	Frequency/Percentage
Year	2003	5866	(6.15%)	Average Years of Education in Cohort	Mean (SD)	9.7718	(1.5997)
	2005	10262	(10.76%)	Birth Cohort Size	Mean (SD)	10.1712	(2.5055)
	2010	11759	(12.33%)	Kinship in Cohort	Mean (SD)	2.4157	(0.0905)
	2012	11758	(12.33%)	Gender	Male	45752	(48.00%)
	2013	11423	(11.98%)		Female	49596	(52.00%)
	2015	10927	(11.46%)	Ethnicity	Han	87985	(92.30%)
	2017	12533	(13.14%)		Minority	7363	(7.70%)
	2018	12741	(13.36%)	Political Affiliation	Party Member	11095	(11.60%)
	2021	8079	(8.47%)		Non-Party Member	84253	(88.40%)
Age	Mean (SD)	48.92	(16.440)	Marital Status	Married	74682	(78.30%)
Marketization Index	Mean (SD)	7.3697	(0.7987)		Unmarried and Others	20666	(21.70%)
Population Mobility Rate	Mean (SD)	19.00%	(4.9867)	Household Registration	Urban	47144	(49.40%)
Number of Social Organizations	Mean (SD)	5.7480	(0.1564)		Rural	48204	(50.60%)
Government Trust Index	Mean (SD)	77.31	(7.5404)	Education Level	Higher Education	16170	(17.00%)
Gini Coefficient	Mean (SD)	0.4724	(0.0070)		Non-Higher Education	79113	(83.00%)
Average Education Level of Period	Mean (SD)	9.8508	(0.6382)	Kinship Relationship	High Kinship	34514	(36.20%)
Kinship Relationship of Period	Mean (SD)	2.4169	(0.5303)		Low Kinship	60803	(63.80%)

Explanatory Variables		Basic Model	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Intercept		3.0442^***	?15.9680	3.0102^***	2.9983^***	3.0816^***
Age		0.0041^***	0.0000	0.0022^***	0.0056^***	0.0063^***
Age Squared		0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0002^***	0.0001^*
Gender		0.0236^***	0.0237^***	0.0193^**	0.0245^***	0.0240^***
Political Affiliation		0.1209^***	0.1209^***	0.1516^***	0.0979^***	0.1212^***
Ethnicity		?0.0400^**	?0.0397^**	?0.0287^*	?0.0455^***	?0.0402^***
Marital Status		0.0390^***	0.0394^***	0.0463^***	0.0561^***	0.0379^***
Period Covariates
	Period Kinship		?1.3748^***
	Marketization Index		?0.4419^*
	Number of Social Organizations		6.8659⁺
	Population Mobility Rate		0.0173
	Period Average Education Level		?1.4894
	Gini Coefficient		2.6006
	Government Trust Index		0.0054
Generation Variance
	Cohort Average Education Level		?0.0722^***
	Cohort Kinship		?0.2223^**
	Birth Cohort Size		0.0155^**
Household Registration Type				0.0918^**
Education Level					0.0489
Kinship						?0.0588
Age Interaction Term
	Age × Household Registration			0.0048^***
	Age Squared × Household Registration			?0.0001^**
	Age × Education Level				?0.0051^***
	Age Squared × Education Level				0.0000
	Age × Kinship					?0.0034^**
	Age Squared × Kinship					0.0003^***
Period Variance
Period Intercept		0.4214^*	0.0039	0.4176^*	0.0042^*	0.4992^*
Period Household Registration Type				0.0033^*
Period Education Level					0.0047^*
Period Kinship						0.0072^*
Generation Variance
Generation Intercept		0.0070^*	0.0016^*	0.0027⁺	0.0118^*	0.0023^*
Generation Household Registration Type				0.0021^*
Generation Education Level					0.0017
Generation Kinship						0.0117^*
BIC		267929.3	267893.3	267564.3	267709.5	267809.7