心理科学进展, 2019, 27(4): 600-610 doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2019.00600

研究方法

追踪研究在组织行为学中的应用

胥彦, 李超平,

中国人民大学公共管理学院组织与人力资源研究所, 北京 100872

Application of longitudinal study in organizational behavior research

XU Yan, LI Chaoping,

School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

通讯作者: 李超平, E-mail: lichaoping@ruc.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2018-05-7   网络出版日期: 2019-04-15

基金资助: * 国家自然科学基金资助.  71772171
国家自然科学基金资助.  71372159
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目资助.  17YJA630073
中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”支持

Received: 2018-05-7   Online: 2019-04-15

摘要

追踪研究是一种通过引入时滞, 以探索变量动态变化趋势和变量之间相互关系的调查研究方法。近年来, 在组织行为学中, 追踪研究越来越受到学者们的关注, 追踪研究成果也在逐渐增加, 但是大多数研究者尤其是国内研究者, 对追踪研究尚缺乏全面正确的认识。追踪研究设计可以依照重复测量之间的时间间隔长短进行分类, 不同的类型对应不同的样本量、调查方式和统计分析方法, 未来可以拓展追踪研究在团队和领导力、组织文化和变革以及员工激励等方面的应用, 或开展跨文化的追踪研究。

关键词: 追踪研究 ; 经验取样法 ; 潜变量增长曲线模型 ; 潜变计分模型 ; 交叉滞后模型

Abstract

Longitudinal study is a research method that introduces time-lag to explore changing trends of variables and causality between variables. In organizational behavior (OB) research, scholars have become increasingly interested in longitudinal study. While the number of OB research adopting this method is rising, a comprehensive and correct understanding is not available so far in China. Longitudinal study can be categorized according to the time-lag, different types correspond to different sample size, survey and statistical analysis methods. Further research could be extended on the team and leadership, organizational culture and change, and employee motivation. Future research should pay more attention to the achievement of cross-culture design.

Keywords: longitudinal study ; empirical sampling method ; latent growth curve model ; latent change score model ; cross-lagged model

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本文引用格式

胥彦, 李超平. (2019). 追踪研究在组织行为学中的应用. 心理科学进展, 27(4), 600-610

XU Yan, LI Chaoping. (2019). Application of longitudinal study in organizational behavior research. Advances in Psychological Science, 27(4), 600-610

1 引言

随着组织行为学研究的不断深入和现代科学技术的迅速发展, 横截面研究设计的有效性越来越受到研究者的质疑, 其主要原因包括两个方面:一是变量相互关系的不确定性, 二是共同方法变异导致的偏差(Rindfleisch, Malter, Ganesan, & Moorman, 2008)。首先, 在某些情况下, 横截面研究得出的变量相互关系结论并不是十分准确的。一方面, 横截面研究设计会导致不准确的参数检验和显著性检验(Pitariu & Ployhart, 2010), 另一方面, 横截面研究只反映了短时间内的变量之间的关系, 如果选择不同的时间框架, 可能会得到完全不同的研究结果(Levin, 2006)。其次, 横截面研究设计存在共同方法变异的可能性更大。因为大多数横截面研究是由研究对象在单个时间点完成的, 导致研究的有效性比多时间点研究的有效性低很多。很多学者也通过实证研究(Zablah, Carlson, Donavan, Maxham, & Brown, 2016; Riza, Ganzach, & Liu, 2016; Gao-Urhahn, Biemann, & Jaros, 2016), 比较了横截面研究与追踪研究的研究质量, 结果均证明, 追踪研究的研究结果更加准确, 横截面研究设计不再能满足研究需要, 研究者们需要采用追踪研究设计来更全面地测试变量的发展变化(de Jong et al., 2016)。

探索随着时间的推移, 个体、团队与组织所发生的变化, 对于理解组织心理的动态特征至关重要(Riza et al., 2016), 所以, 在组织行为学领域的相关研究中, 时间是一个非常重要的因素; 并且, 越来越多的研究发现, 组织中大多数态度和行为, 如工作满意度(Ng & Feldman, 2015; Riza et al, 2016), 组织承诺(Kam, Morin, Meyer, & Topolnytsky, 2016; Gao-Urhahn et al., 2016), 工作重塑(Tims, Bakker, & Derks, 2015)和健康行为(Liu, Wang, Bamberger, Shi, & Bacharach, 2015)等等, 都会随时间发生动态性的变化。因此, 组织行为学研究者需要通过纳入时间因素, 对现象发展的内在机制和过程进行深入研究, 发现个体心理、态度和行为的具体变化, 才能更准确地把握现象的动态趋势和规律。

组织行为学领域的大多数理论本身都暗含了动态的变化, 越来越多的文章也在强调时间是组织理论的重要组成部分(Jebb & Tay, 2016), 如心理契约理论认为, 个体的心理契约(psychological contract)是连续不断存在的, 并且会随着时间的推移而延续和发展; 自我决定理论(self-determination theory)认为, 个体的自主(autonomy)、胜任(competence)和关系(relatedness)三个需求的相对重要性, 以及每个人满足需求的方式, 都会随着时间的推移和人生阶段的变迁而发生改变(Miles, 2012/2017), 目标设定理论则要求跟踪目标的实现情况等, 很少有一个理论的发展完善只是为了解释某一时间点上的现象。于是, 能够探索潜在变化的追踪研究越来越受到研究者的追捧。在国际顶尖的组织行为学学术期刊上, 采用纵向设计的研究也越来越多(Ployhart & Ward, 2011)。

由此可见, 研究准确性的需要、组织现象自身的特点以及组织理论的潜在要求无一不使得追踪研究越来越受到研究者重视, 信息技术和网络技术的发展也为追踪研究的开展提供了更加便利的条件, 国内已有学者尝试使用追踪研究方法进行实证研究(傅飞强, 彭剑锋, 2017)。但是, 有一些研究仅测量两次, 并不是真正意义的追踪研究; 还有些研究由于诸多现实因素限制, 重复测量之间的时间间隔普遍较短, 且样本损耗极大, 影响了最终的研究质量。本文试图通过界定追踪研究的涵义, 总结归纳追踪研究设计的特征、类型、实施步骤和关键点, 举例说明追踪研究常用的数据拟合模型, 预测其未来可能的发展和应用前景, 为研究者规范使用追踪研究设计提供参考和指导。

2 追踪研究的定义、特征和类型

2.1 追踪研究的定义和特征

追踪研究(Longitudinal Study)通常也被译为“纵向研究”, 最开始多用于医学领域以追踪病人病情变化, 或者用于教育领域以追踪青少年成长过程中心理或行为的变化。上个世纪60年代开始, 追踪研究慢慢被引入组织行为学领域。维基百科(Wikipedia)将追踪研究定义为一种涉及在短期或长期时间内, 对相同变量(例如人)进行重复观察的研究设计。Ployhart和Vandenberg (2010)将追踪研究定义为强调研究变化的研究, 其至少包含三个重复观察结果(三个以上更好), 并且至少对一个实质性变量有意义。如今, 大部分研究者(Kelloway & Francis, 2013; Taris & Kompier, 2014; Abbad & Carlotto, 2016)都使用了Ployhart和Vandenberg (2010)的定义。

总而言之, 追踪研究是一种通过对同一研究对象进行3次或3次以上的重复测量, 对序列数据进行处理、分析, 以了解变量发展趋势和变量之间相互关系的研究设计。追踪研究经过不断发展和完善, 已经广泛应用在国内外的组织行为学领域。概括地讲, 相对于传统横截面研究而言, 追踪研究主要有以下四方面的特征。

(1) 测量次数不少于3次。仅仅在两个时间点进行测量, 难以准确地反映具体的变化过程, 无法判断当前出现的差异是否会继续发生变化, 也无法评估差异产生的根本原因究竟是变量的实质变化还是测量误差。(2) 重复测量所有相关变量。分离测量预测变量和结果变量仅仅是处理共同方法变异问题, 并没有捕捉到变量的动态性质及变量之间的相互关系(Chan, 1998), 无法把握变量自身的变化趋势, 不属于真正意义上的追踪研究。(3) 强调变量的动态变化。即随时间的推移, 变量自身以及变量与变量之间相互关系的动态变化, 既包括在总体上的平均变化情况, 也包括个体间变化的差异变化情况, 与变量的静态表征以及变量之间瞬时的相互关系完全不同。(4) 有助确定变量先后顺序。从方法论的角度来看, 因果关系的前提要求之一是预测变量在前, 结果变量在后(Ployhart & Vandenberg, 2010)。追踪研究通过重复测量所有相关变量, 获取纵向的、历时性的数据, 使得测量变量之间的反向相互作用成为可能, 不仅可以清楚了解变量之间究竟谁影响谁, 还可以明确谁的影响作用更大(温忠麟, 2017)。虽然真正的因果关系, 有待采用实验研究去进一步揭示, 但追踪研究仍有助于研究者通过探索变量间相互影响推断其中的先后顺序。

2.2 追踪研究的类型

由于追踪研究要求重复测量不少于3次, 因此, 间隔多久进行测量是研究者进行追踪研究设计时要考虑的关键。具体的时间间隔长度, 由研究所涉及变量的特征、变量可能发生变化的时机以及变量变化可能的持续时间决定。根据测量时间间隔的长短, 可以将追踪研究分为以下四类。

2.2.1 短时间间隔的追踪研究设计

短时间间隔的追踪研究设计是追踪研究中的一种特殊形式, 间隔一般小于1周。这种在短时间内密集收集被试在较短时间内对生活中经历事件的瞬时评估, 并对其进行记录的追踪研究被称为经验取样法(Experience Sampling Methodology)或日记法(Daily Diary) (张银普, 骆南峰, 石伟, 2016)。短时间间隔的追踪研究设计最大的特点在于, 能够在相对很短的时间内, 对个体的想法、感受和行为进行重复抽样(Fraley & Hudson, 2014)。近些年, 经验取样法发展迅速, 应用范围也越来越广泛。

在组织行为学领域, 组织活动及员工的感受、认知体验、行为都处在时刻变化中, 为了准确地理解这些概念, 发现这些概念的变化规律, 需要研究概念在日常情境下即刻的状态(张银普, 石伟, 骆南峰, 邢璐, 徐渊, 2017)。比如, Goh, Ilies和Wilson (2015)通过连续5天, 每天都向135员工发放问卷, 探索了个体每天工作负担的变化如何通过工作-家庭冲突对生活满意度产生影响; Liu等(2015)在连续3周时间的每个工作日里都对125名员工进行4次调查, 发现员工早晨的工作-家庭冲突与下午的情绪耗竭成正相关关系, 并且能够预测个体下午对领导和同事的攻击行为, 以及晚上对家庭成员的攻击行为。由此可见, 经验取样法适合用来捕捉短时间个体感受、情绪以及体验的变化, 即在极短时间内能够发生变化的变量, 以探索其可能导致的个体态度或行为的变化, 为组织和个人提供建议。

2.2.2 适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计

时间间隔适中的追踪研究设计是追踪研究中最常用的形式, 间隔一般大于1周且小于1年。在实际的研究中, 为了方便调查, 研究者们通常选择比较均匀的时间间隔, 比如每隔1个月或者3个月进行一次测量。

随着时间推移, 个体的能力和心理、行为都会发生变化, 即创造力、绩效、满意度和组织公民行为等变量, 都会在个体和组织的发展变化过程中发生一定的改变, 对这类可发展、可开发的变量的研究, 常使用适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计。Winkler, Busch, Clasen和Vowinkel (2015)通过间隔为3个月的3次重复测量, 探索了领导者行为变化是否能够影响低技能工人的工作满意度和幸福感。Vogt, Hakanen, Brauchli, Jenny和Bauer (2016)也是通过间隔3个月的3次重复测量, 探索了员工的工作重塑可能导致的结果。另外, 适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计还可以用来探索可预测的小规模变动(比如工作场所或工作环境的变化)可能带给个体和组织的变化, Bergström, Miller和Horneij (2015)为了探索某组织中办公区域的变化(从封闭式办公室到开放式办公室)对个体工作环境感知的影响, 在办公室搬迁之前1个月进行了第一次测量, 在搬迁之后的3个月、6个月、12个月又进行了3次重复测量。由此可见, 适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计适合研究一定时间内可变化的变量, 也适合用来探索可预测的小规模变动对个体和组织可能造成的影响。

2.2.3 长时间间隔的追踪研究设计

长时间间隔的追踪研究设计是实施难度相对较大的一种追踪研究设计, 间隔一般至少1年。由于时间跨度极长, 研究过程中易受到诸多不可控制因素的影响。

在组织行为学领域, 很多变量如智力、人格特征、价值观等, 不易在短时间内发生变化, 研究这些变量的变化需要研究者采用长时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 一般间隔至少1年, 整个研究完成可能需要3到10年的时间。Gao-Urhahn等人(2016)在2002年至2007年的6年时间内, 每年测量一次员工的组织承诺(情感承诺), 从“水平”和“变化”两个角度对情感承诺的变化与收入变化之间的关系进行了探索。极少数研究会需要几十年的时间, Riza等人(2016)同时考虑年龄和任期, 对两组样本共21670名被试在40年的时间内进行了34次数据收集, 一组是29年内的22次数据收集(除去被试的未成年时间), 一组是11年内的12次数据收集, 发现如果控制年龄, 随着任期的增加, 个体工作满意度越来越低, 但是如果控制任期, 随着年龄的增加, 个体工作满意度越来越高。

另外, 长时间间隔的追踪研究设计还可以帮助研究者探索如有重大事件发生, 某些变量是否会发生变化, 以及这种变化会带来怎样的结果。Birkeland, Nielsen, Hansen, Knardahl和Heir (2017)通过在2011年奥斯陆炸弹袭击事件前后共5次(发生前两次, 发生后的3年时间内每年一次)的数据收集, 发现员工对领导力的感知整体上是相对比较稳定的, 重大事件对其的影响基本可以忽略。因此, 时间间隔大于1年的设计适用于研究较稳定变量的变化, 也适用于研究重大突发事件(如金融危机、政治变革)可能引起的改变。

2.2.4 混合型时间间隔的追踪研究设计

混合型时间间隔的追踪研究设计是指在同一个追踪研究中, 包含着不同时间间隔形式的设计。如对不同的样本群体分组, 采用不同的时间间隔设计, Lang, Bliese和de Voogt (2018)对美国官兵和在苏丹执行考古任务的美法专家两组样本进行追踪调查研究, 对官兵一组采用了适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计(6个月为时间间隔, 共3次数据收集); 对考古专家一组, 使用了短时间间隔的追踪研究设计(在团队现场作业的平均21.64天里, 除周五外, 进行每日调查), 对组织中的共识涌现(consensus emergence in groups)进行建模。混合型时间间隔设计相对于其他形式更加复杂, 适合研究者需要对变量进行多层级的建模时使用。但是, 由于其实施起来有一定难度, 相关研究成果目前还很少。

3 追踪研究的步骤和关键

3.1 追踪研究的主要步骤

虽然追踪研究设计可以分为不同类型, 但大多数追踪研究的研究步骤基本一致。一般来说, 追踪研究的实施主要包括5个关键环节, 如图1所示。

图1

图1   追踪研究的主要步骤

注:作者根据相关资料整理所得


(1) 明确研究问题并提出动态假设。设计追踪研究, 首先要明确待解决的问题是否适合使用追踪研究, 即是否包含有随时间发生动态变化的问题。如果横截面设计可以满足研究要求, 则没有太大必要使用追踪研究(Levin, 2006), 且如果变量间相互影响是即时性的, 追踪研究设计反而可能是不合适的(除非做被试内设计) (温忠麟, 2017)。确定研究问题后, 针对问题提出动态性假设, 即随着时间的推移, 变量会发生怎样的变化(Pitariu & Ployhart, 2010)。(2) 设计详细研究方案, 确定测量次数、时间间隔和样本量等关键, 考虑追踪研究的样本损耗, 提前确定足够的样本量。(3) 重复测量所有相关变量。对所有相关变量进行重复测量, 而不是分离测量。在这个过程中, 要注意与调查单位负责人进行良好的沟通; 向被试讲明调查理由, 并提供适当的调查奖励。有学者也会采用分组处理, 把样本分成控制组和实验组, 同时关注发展趋势和组间发展水平及速度的差异(刘红云, 张雷, 2005)。(4) 分析所收集的序列数据。根据研究设计和数据特征选择最适合的分析模型。(5) 解释假设检验得到的结果, 得出追踪研究结论并报告。

3.2 追踪研究的关键

追踪研究在具体实施过程中, 必须抓住几个关键点, 如样本量的确定、调查方式的选择、样本损耗的处理等。本文借助国外一些具有代表性的追踪研究, 对三个关键点进行阐释。

3.2.1 样本量的确定

追踪研究的样本极为重要, 样本量的大小和样本质量直接影响研究结果的准确性, 如果研究初始时对样本量的估计出现偏差, 追踪调查将很难继续进行。首先, 追踪研究的样本量应该尽可能多。事实上, 追踪研究在统计量方面还是比较经济的, 在追踪研究中, 总的样本量是重复测量次数的倍数(Ployhart & Ward, 2011), 100名被试抽样5次产生500次结果, 与20名被试抽样25次, 获得的结果数也是一样的。其次, 在进行调查之前, 研究者最好首先对样本损耗有一个预估, 即计划缺失。提前考虑最后一次测量时所需的样本量, 然后估计调查中可能的损耗百分比, 通过倒推, 来确定在第一次测量时所需的样本量, 提早做好准备。另外, 在设计追踪研究的时候, 还可以对中间几次的数据收集采取分组进行的方式, 或采取加速纵向设计, 例如, 可以在同一时间段(如第1、6、12个月), 通过对不同的群体(如新员工, 职业生涯早期员工, 职业生涯晚期员工)进行抽样来估计变化(Ployhart & Vandenberg, 2010)。

追踪研究中的小样本一般指200以内的样本量, 适用于短时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 因为短时间间隔的追踪研究设计需要在极短时间内进行多次重复测量, 研究者很难在短时间内做到对较大样本量的监控; 并且, 在极短时间内, 被试发生不可预测事件的可能一般较小, 不可控环境因素对样本损耗的影响也较小(员工离职, 企业破产等), 因此, 相对于其他追踪研究类型, 经验取样法的样本量一般相对较小, 样本损耗也小。比如, Goh等人(2015)Liu等(2015)在使用短时间间隔的追踪研究设计研究工作-家庭冲突时, 样本量分别为135和125, 都在200以内。

追踪研究中的中样本一般指200至500的样本量, 适用于适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计。与横截面研究相比, 二者样本量要求相差不大, 但是其缺点是随着时间的推移, 会发生一定程度的样本损耗。Winkler等人(2015)采用适中时间间隔的研究设计, 探索领导者行为变化是否内能够影响低技能工人的工作满意度和幸福感时, 样本量为255。另一方面, 适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计在探索可预测的小型变动对个体和组织可能造成的影响时, 会对样本量大小造成限制, Bergström等人(2015)为了探索某组织中办公区域的变化(从封闭式办公室到开放式办公室)对个体工作环境感知的影响, 样本量仅为82人; 或者当追踪研究的研究对象是组织中的特殊群体时, 如新员工或有家庭的员工, 也会限制样本量的大小。

追踪研究中的大样本一般指500以上的样本量, 适用于长时间间隔的追踪研究设计。由于时间跨度很长, 在调查期间由于各种现实因素的影响, 样本量损耗非常严重, 所以, 长时间间隔的追踪研究设计对初始样本量的要求很高, 因此, 长时间间隔的追踪研究设计常会借助官方数据, Gao-Urhahn等人(2016)使用的官方研究中样本量为13000, Riza等人(2016)的两组样本量分别为12686和8984。也有研究者只是使用官方数据库中的被试名单, 然后自行进行调查, 这样样本损耗就会较为严重, Birkeland等人(2017)虽然在首次调查时使用了官方记录中的人员目录, 但在第三次数据调查时样本量仅剩212, 损耗将近一半。但是, 使用官方调查数据的缺点是, 研究者无法在调查前或调查中对研究进行计划和监控, 只能在后续的数据分析时予以处理。所以, 采用长时间间隔的追踪研究设计比较经济的做法是, 将多个研究对象相同的小研究合并调查, Li, Fay, Frese, Harms和Gao (2014)对主动性人格与工作特征之间相互关系的研究, 就是更大研究的一个部分。

3.2.2 调查方式的选择

追踪研究的调查方式一般以问卷调查法为主, 结合其他研究方法如文献研究法、访谈与专家咨询等作为辅助的信息来源。由于追踪研究数据收集次数多, 往往造成被试的不耐烦或中途放弃, 所以研究者应尽量采用耗时少、易操作、适合样本特点的调查方式。另一方面, 由于追踪研究涉及多次重复测量, 研究者还需要考虑如何做到纵向上样本间的匹配, 这是追踪研究与横截面研究在调查方式上最大的不同。一般的问卷调查方式包括纸质问卷调查和电子问卷调查(包括网络问卷、手机问卷等)和电子设备及APP调查。

纸质问卷调查是最传统的问卷调查方式, 即向被试发放纸质问卷。通过纸质问卷进行数据收集的好处在于研究者对研究的可控性比较大, 且由于被试对纸质问卷较为重视, 所收集的数据相较于其他方式可能更为准确; 但是纸质问卷调查操作相对复杂, 数据录入时也容易发生错误, 且有时研究者并不是在现场直接发放纸质问卷, 可能通过邮寄的方式寄送纸质问卷, 很容易造成丢失, 导致回收率降低。纸质问卷调查适用短时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 调查样本量一般也比较小, 如果时间间隔过长或者样本量过大, 纸质问卷调查的有效性将受到影响。Taylor, Bedeian, Cole和Zhang (2017)使用纸质问卷对工作场所无礼行为变化可能产生的影响进行了探索, 对131名被试在连续6周的每个周五进行纸质问卷调查, 员工将完成的问卷放入密封的信封中, 由研究团队成员每周亲自收集一次, 且为了确保6次调查数据能够准确匹配, 在第一次调查的时候, 研究者就给每个参与者分配了一个随机、不重复的三位数代码。在其后每次调查时, 该代码都会写在在参与者问卷上, 研究者最后会根据该代码来对所有问卷进行匹配。

电子问卷调查是目前使用最广泛的追踪研究调查方式。网络技术的发展给发送电子问卷提供了很大便利。目前可以在线制作问卷的网站很多, 只需要将问卷链接或者二维码等通过电子邮件或者微信等发送给被试, 被试就可以在线提交答案, 研究者数据回收非常及时, 同时还可以附上礼品或红包作为感谢, 被试填写的积极性就会更高。电子问卷调查适用于适中的时间间隔或者较长的时间间隔, 对样本量要求也比较灵活, 如果时间间隔或跨度很长, 研究者可以通过电子邮件或微信等提醒被试及时参与调查; 如果对样本量要求比较高, 研究者还可以使用第三方提供的在线数据服务, Vogt等人(2016)通过在线数据服务进行适中时间间隔的研究设计, 样本量高达940。关于样本的纵向匹配问题, Bakker等(2015)在调查开始时, 直接向每个被试发送了包含有研究目的介绍和保密承诺书, 以及研究问卷链接和个人登录账号密码的邮件, 每个被试都拥有个人登录账号和密码, 能够在后续的调查中进行多时间点数据的直接匹配。有时研究设计较为复杂, 不只包括纵向上个体的匹配, 还包括横向上调查对象之间的匹配。Zablah等(2016)为了调查了零售链上顾客满意度与员工满意度之间的关系, 需要保证顾客与一线员工之间的匹配以及纵向上多次测量的数据匹配, 就把一线员工的编号和商店编号添加到顾客账单信息中, 用来匹配顾客数据, 同时, 将每个员工匹配到特定的店铺编号, 用来匹配员工数据, 实现了纵向和横向上的匹配。

第三类调查方式是指借用电子设备, 或者应用于电子设备的第三方应用程序(Application, APP)来采集数据的方式, 需要研究者自行准备统一的设备, 如掌上电脑、电子手环等, 或能够在多种设备上顺利运行的普适性APP。这种方法的好处在于, 能够使得被试同时接受提醒信号, 并能够通过设备编号来匹配重复测量的数据; 设备还可以回收, 在今后其它研究中多次利用。电子设备等第三类调查方式适用于短时间间隔或适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 时间间隔过长, 容易造成设备的遗失, 且在样本量比较大的情况下, 设备费用会导致研究成本较高。Beal, Trougakos, Weiss和Dalal (2013)在测量情感状态、紧张和疲劳时, 为调查参与者配备了掌上电脑(personal digital assistant), 要求被试在收到信号后, 及时完成调查。另外, 随着智能手机和平板电脑等移动终端设备的普及, 应用程序在生活中的应用越来越广。在传统网络调查的基础上, APP调查可结合移动设备触屏、扫码、定位等功能, 且使用便捷, APP可以通过ip地址或被试的用户信息进行数据匹配, 但是群发提醒功能略有不足, 且APP程序漏洞可能会影响调查结果采集的准确性(王云峰, 史菁菁, 毛春芳, 2016)以及数据信息的安全性。

3.2.3 数据缺失的处理

在追踪研究中, 由于调查时间长, 调查次数多, 极易发生样本损耗, 导致数据缺失问题。在进行实地研究时, 由于各种因素的限制, 最后一次测量比第一次测量回收率下降一半或更多的情况并不少见(Chan, 1998)。即使在调查之前已经考虑到可能的缺失, 并保证了首次调查的样本量, 调查期间的缺失比例如果很大也会使得样本不具代表性, 当缺失达60%以上时, 数据完全失去利用价值(Barzi & Woodward, 2004)。所以, 研究者必须在统计分析之前采取相应措施处理缺失值。

追踪研究中传统的缺失数据处理方法主要有删除法(deletion)和单一插补法(single imputation), 这两种方法也是研究者经常采用的缺失值处理方法, 其优点是简单易行, 但会造成一定程度上的参数估计偏差和统计功效损失。一般来说, 对于短时间间隔的追踪研究设计或者适中时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 只要缺失比例不是特别大, 研究者们都倾向于直接采取删除法。Goh等人(2015)Liu等(2015)、Bakker等(2015)以及Liu等(2015)都采用了删除法。叶素静、唐文清、张敏强和曹魏聪(2014)对现代缺失数据处理方法进行了详细的介绍, 对于随机缺失, 可以采取极大似然估计(maximum likelihood estimation)和多重插补法(multiple imputation), 对于非随机缺失可以采用选择模型(selection model)和模式混合模型(pattern- mixture model)。极大似然估计又分为如期望极大(expectation maximization, EM)算法和全息极大似然估计(full information maximum likelihood), 对于长时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 研究者们最常用的就是极大似然估计法, Birkeland等人(2017)Gao-Urhahn等人(2016)均是通过Mplus软件, 采用全息极大似然估计来处理缺失值。

由此可见, 追踪研究的类型与样本量、调查方式以及缺失数据处理方法之间是相互联系、相互呼应的, 研究者在进行追踪研究时, 应该根据自身研究设计的具体情况, 确定合适的样本量, 选择恰当的调查方式, 采用有效的数据缺失处理方式, 保证研究的有效性。

4 统计分析方法的选择

由于追踪研究需要对每一个样本进行多次重复测量, 所获得的数据与横截面研究所获得的数据相比更加庞大、更加复杂, 且多次重复测量之间存在时间差, 使得数据常呈现嵌套性、序列性、滞后性的特征; 再加上追踪研究能够探索变量之间的相互关系, 而不是单纯的单方向影响, 使得数据又呈现出复杂的交叉性特征, 完全随机设计的方差分析和成组t检验都不再适用于追踪研究数据处理, 要求研究者选用更适合的模型对数据进行拟合。因此, 对于追踪数据的处理, 需要根据研究设计、研究假设要求、变量类型以及数据特点, 选择最合适的模型进行拟合。常用的追踪研究统计分析模型有潜变量增长曲线模型(latent growth curve model), 潜变计分模型(latent change score model), 交叉滞后模型(cross-lagged model), 除此之外, 还有多层模型(mutillevel model), 时间序列分析(time series analysis)以及重复测量的方差分析(MANOVA)等。

4.1 潜变量增长曲线模型

潜变量增长曲线模型(latent growth curve model)是一种基于结构方程的、比较新的处理追踪研究数据的统计方法, 相比于传统的时间序列分析等方法, 潜变量增长曲线模型提供了适用于相等时间间隔假设的替代方案(Mcardle, 2009)。因此, 潜变量增长曲线模型适用于拟合在固定时间点收集的纵向研究数据, 即相同时间间隔的重复测量所收集的数据。目前组织行为学领域内追踪研究大都采用相等时间间隔的追踪研究设计, 比如每次测量之间间隔1天、3个月或1年。潜变量增长模型的优点在于能够根据研究假设对随机效应和固定效应进行分析, 实现了整体水平分析和个体水平分析的结合。根据研究需要, 还可以采用更复杂的潜变量模型, 比如混合增长(growth mixture model)模型、潜类别模型(latent class model)等。

Wu和Griffin (2012)为探索核心自我评价(core self-evaluations, CSE)和工作满意度(job satisfaction, JSAT)之间的相互影响关系, 采用了1997年至2006年十年间的英国家户长期追踪资料库(British Household Panel Survey)的数据, 并将其划分为4个阶段(1) Year 1 to Year 4 (1997~2000), (2) Year 5 (2001), (3) Year 6 to Year 9 (2002~2005), (4) Year 10 (2006), 使用分段的潜变量增长曲线模型研究不同阶段的增长效应模型, 模型包括两个截距因子和两个斜率因子。两个截距分别代表第1年和第6年的工作满意度分数, 两个斜率因子则分别代表每4年期间工作满意度的增长率(增长率t1-t4和增长率t6-t9), 从第1年到第4年的工作满意度得分受第一个截距因子和斜率因子的影响, 从第6年到第9年的工作满意度得分受第二个截距因子和斜率因子影响。结果发现, 潜变量增长曲线模型对数据的拟合度最佳, 除了第一斜率因子到第2年工作满意度得分的路径以外, 其他路径都是显著的, 早期的工作满意度水平和增长率能够正向预测之后的核心自我评价, 并且, 核心自我评价也能够正向预测之后的工作满意度水平和增长率。

4.2 潜变计分模型

潜变计分模型(latent change score model)是一种比潜变量增长曲线更为灵活、精确的模型, 相较于常用线性轨迹来表明变化趋势的潜变量增长曲线模型, 潜变计分模型并不假设变化的形式是线性的(Li et al, 2014)。潜变计分模型将潜变量的分数或者说真实的分数与随机测量误差分开, 将其作为一个单独的潜变量, 然后用来预测其他变量; 如果在每个时间点重复这个过程, 就为模型添加一层(T-1)新的潜变量变化分数(McArdle, 2009)。这个新的潜在变量, 完全由后边分数的特定部分来解释, 无法由前边分数(即残差)来解释, 因此, 新的潜变量变化的显著性就意味着并非所有个体都经历过类似的变化。潜变计分模型适用于探索个体变化差异相关的滞后效应和相互影响的研究, 其优点在于能够研究与个体差异有关的动态(即时滞)的相互关系(McArdle, 2001), 还能够灵活有效地避免Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型错误(Howardson, Karim, & Horn, 2017)。

Li等(2014)对主动型人格和工作特征之间的相互关系进行了探索, 通过间隔分别为一年和两年的三次数据收集, 使用潜变计分模型对数据进行分析, 通过提出一个新的潜变化变量, 来代表两个相邻测量时机中每个变量真实得分的增量或减量(如Δ主动型人格(T1-T2), Δ主动型人格(T2-T3) )。因为可以为每个被试建立一个潜变化变量, 所以潜在变化计分模型常用于研究变化的个体差异, 例如, 可以确定从T1到T2的人格差异(Δ主动型人格(T1-T2))是否受个人在T1时期的工作特征(工作特征T1)影响。类似地, 也可以用于检查工作特征的变化(如Δ工作特征(T1-T2))是否受到早期主动性人格(主动型人格T1)的影响, 以及T2时期主动性人格的改变(主动型人格T2)是否进一步促进工作特征从T2到T3 (Δ工作特征(T2-T3))的改变。结果发现, 工作特征中的工作需要(job demands)和工作控制(job control)对主动性人格(proactive personality)的促进有积极的滞后效应, 主动性人格对工作需要、工作控制和上级支持(supervisory support)的促进以及组织约束(organizational constraints)的降低都会产生积极的滞后效应, 并且, 主动性人格与工作需求和工作控制之间存在动态的相互作用。

4.3 交叉滞后模型

交叉滞后模型(cross-lagged model)是横截面设计(cross-sectional)和时滞模型(time-lagged model)的结合, 包括控制变量自身随时间推移而变化的自相关路径, 以及变量相互关系的交叉滞后路径, 因此, 交叉滞后模型适用于探索变量相互间逻辑关系的研究。交叉滞后模型的优点在于, 在估计X对M或M对Y的影响时(如Xt1对Mt2), 能够控制T-1时每个变量对自身的影响(如Mt1对Mt2), 降低了将相关性作为真正的效应量的可能性, 能够为研究者提供最明确有力的因果关系(Lang, Bliese, Lang, & Adler, 2011); 使得测量X与M之间的反向作用或者相互作用成为可能, 通过对参数的估计, 还能够测试结果的稳定性(Law, Wong, Yan, & Huang, 2016), 然而仅靠追踪研究是无法确定真正意义的因果关系, 只能帮助研究者了解可能的变量先后顺序, 严格的因果关系还有待于后续的实验验证。

使用交叉滞后模型对追踪数据进行分析, 首先要构建包括自相关路径以及不同变量间回归路径(不同方向的单向路径或双向交叉路径)的多个模型, 然后比较选择最佳模型, 选定最佳模型以后, 再对路径进行检验。Moazami-Goodarzi, Nurmi, Mauno和Rantanen (2015)探索了核心自我评估、工作活力和工作-家庭增益三个变量之间的交叉滞后关系, 通过对静态模型和交叉滞后模型的参数对比, 发现交叉滞后模型能够更好地拟合数据, T1时期的工作活力正向预测了T2时期的工作-家庭增益, T2时期的工作-家庭增益又正向预测了T3时期的工作活力, 而核心自我评价与工作-家庭增益之间不存在交叉滞后的相互关系。Vogt等人(2016)也是运用了交叉滞后模型, 探索了工作重塑变化对员工的心理资本和工作投入变化的影响, 发现工作重塑正向预测心理资本和工作投入, 而心理资本与工作投入对工作重塑没有预测作用。

5 追踪研究的发展与应用前景

现代网络技术的发展给追踪研究提供了更加便捷的调查渠道, 再加上数据记录和统计分析方法的进步, 未来, 研究者可以运用追踪研究探索更多变量之间的动态相互关系。追踪研究在组织行为学中的应用将会越来越广泛, 能够为组织实践提供更准确更有价值的建议。

5.1 技术进步推进追踪研究的发展

技术进步包括电子信息技术的进步以及统计分析方法的进步, 二者都为追踪研究的发展提供了很大帮助。

首先, 由于追踪研究需要对同一对象进行多次重复测量, 在操作中给研究者和被试都造成了很多麻烦, 加上各种现实因素的限制, 回收率经常很低。然而, 随着电子信息技术和网络技术的发展, 越来越多的设备和媒介可以供研究者收集数据使用, 电子设备以及设备所安装的APP都可以用来收集信息数据, 为追踪研究拓宽了应用范围。电子设备或APP的使用不仅可以方便被试完成调查, 在信号提醒和数据匹配上也为研究者省去了很大麻烦。除此之外, 技术进步还有助于研究者更多使用混合型追踪研究设计, 将不同的时间间隔类型的研究设计结合, 整合多渠道的动态信息, 发现微观变量在个体内的变化规律(张银普 等, 2017)。比如, 在使用电子问卷进行适中时间间隔调查的同时, 采用经验取样法收集研究对象的日常工作生活记录, 能够更具体地探索变量的变化情况。

其次, 对于追踪数据的统计分析, 一直以来也是让研究者比较困扰的问题, 尽管许多组织现象可能以非线性或不连续的方式发生变化(Bliese, Chan, & Ployhart, 2007), 但是现有的对于追踪研究的拟合模型多是线性的、连续增长型的, 较少有涉及非线性的或者不连续的增长曲线模型, 这一问题未来可能会越来越引起研究者的重视。所以, 今后应当扩展对非线性或者不连续增长曲线的研究。另一方面, 统计分析软件的发展也为追踪研究数据处理提供了便利, 现有很多免费的、开源软件如R都可以用来处理追踪研究数据, 数据缺失的问题也越来越容易处理。

5.2 推动理论的发展

组织管理的相关理论, 无论是宏观还是微观, 都暗含着变量的变化, 之前的研究多是横截面研究, 很难去捕捉变量的动态变化, 以及变量间真正的前后顺序。追踪研究在推动完善理论发展方面, 一是能够把握变量的动态变化; 二是能够了解变量之间的相互关系以及关系的变化。

首先, 在研究变量的动态变化上, 追踪研究能够帮助研究者捕捉变量的具体变化趋势和规律, 丰富变量的概念和特征, 从而完善相关理论, 提高理论的准确度和解释力。Harju, Hakanen和Schaufeli (2016)对工作重塑行为和工作投入、工作倦怠之间的关系进行追踪研究, 不仅探索了工作重塑行为的变化规律, 同时还提高了资源保持理论的解释力。具体地, 可以依据研究假设中变量可能的变化时间, 选择恰当的追踪研究设计, 如个人情绪、态度和体验等, 可以选择短时间间隔的设计; 如个体的能力发展或行为变化等, 可以选择适中时间间隔的设计; 一般不容易在短时间内发生改变的变量, 如组织承诺等, 可以选择长时间间隔的设计。

其次, 在变量间前后关系的把握上, 追踪研究由于是多次重复测量, 可以帮助研究者排除变量间自相关的影响, 探索变量之间真正的相互关系。很多时候, 追踪研究获得的结果, 可能与我们所认为的或从前横截面研究的结果大有不同。Gao-Urhahn等(2016)的研究结果揭示了情感承诺水平与收入水平之间的正相关关系, 表明随着时间的推移, 情感承诺增强, 收入的变化对情感承诺的变化有显著的正向影响, 但反之却不成立, 从而丰富了社会交换理论和承诺理论。因此, 追踪研究的发展有利于研究者理清变量之间的相互关系, 推断其间的前后顺序, 推动组织理论的发展和完善。

5.3 拓展追踪研究在组织实践的应用

追踪研究在自然科学和社会科学领域内都有着广泛的应用, 其中, 在医学和教育学相关领域发展得最早, 研究成果也最多。上世纪60年代起, 组织相关领域的学者开始利用追踪研究方法开展研究。近些年来, 追踪研究在组织行为学领域越来越受到学者关注, 取得了很多意义重大的成果。国外研究者已在组织行为学的多个实践领域, 如激励(motivation)、团队(team)、领导力(leadership)、组织文化(organizational culture)、组织变革(organizational change)甚至是跨文化(cross-cultural)等方面均尝试了追踪研究, 为组织实践提供了极有价值的意见和建议, 如如何处理员工的工作-家庭冲突(Goh et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2015), 如何了解下属对领导力的感知变化(Birkeland et al., 2017)等等, 未来应继续探索追踪研究在组织行为学更多实践领域的应用, 拓展其在团队和领导力、组织文化和变革以及员工激励等方面的应用, 同时开展跨文化的追踪研究, 了解不同文化背景对组织的影响差异, 为组织实践提供更全面准确的管理建议。

总而言之, 未来追踪研究会越来越受到研究者的重视, 运用追踪研究进行组织行为学领域在纵向水平上的探索, 不仅可以帮助研究者深入了解变量发展规律, 丰富管理理论和组织理论, 还能为组织管理提供实践指导和启示。

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This is a review of published longitudinal empirical research on the impact of restructuring on employee well-being. We investigated whether restructuring accompanied by staff reductions impacts differently on worker well-being than restructuring without staff reductions, and the differences between short- and long-term effects of restructuring. Furthermore, we investigated the mechanisms that explain these effects. We conducted a literature search on longitudinal, peer-reviewed, English-written studies from the period 2000 2012. Thirty-nine papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found that restructuring events, with and without staff reductions, mainly have a negative impact on the well-being of employees. The majority of studies showed negative changes over time, in the short and the long term. Some groups of workers reacted less negatively: for example, workers with a high organizational status before a merger and workers who underwent a change in workgroup. Variables that intervened in the relationship between restructuring and well-being were physical demands, job control, communication, provision of information, training, procedural justice, job insecurity and change acceptance. Further high-quality longitudinal research is needed to get more insight into the impact of restructuring over time and into the part played by intervening variables.

, Fraley R.C., &Hudson N.W . ( 2014).

Review of intensive longitudinal methods: An introduction to diary and experience sampling research

Journal of Social Psychology, 154, (1), 89-91.

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is a Graduate Student in Psychology at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research focuses on adult attachment, motivation, and personality development.

Gao-Urhahn X., Biemann T., & Jaros S. J . ( 2016).

How affective commitment to the organization changes over time: A longitudinal analysis of the reciprocal relationships between affective organizational commitment and income

Journal of Organizational Behavior, 37, (4), 515-536.

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This study aimed to grasp the types of organizational culture in semiconductor industry, and to determine whether there are differences in job satisfaction and organizational commitment among the types. Many studies indicate that organizational performance, etc are affected by job satisfaction and organizational commitment. The present study intended to grasp the types of organizational culture recognized by semiconductor industry employees and to present a future vision. To this end, this study employed group culture, hierarchical culture, development culture, and rational culture, which were presented by Kimberly & Quinn (1984) as organizational culture types, as independent variables, and employed job satisfaction and organizational commitment as dependent vari*ables. The result was that semiconductor industry recognized organizational culture in order of rational culture, group culture, development culture and hierarchical culture, and showed a high level of affective commitment, but a low level of normative commitment. Job satisfaction was affected by group culture and rational culture, affective commitment was affected by group culture and rational culture, and normative commitment was affected by group culture.

Goh Z., Ilies R., & Wilson K. S . ( 2015).

Supportive supervisors improve employees’ daily lives: The role supervisors play in the impact of daily workload on life satisfaction via work-family conflict

Journal of Vocational Behavior, 89, 65-73.

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61Within individuals, daily workload negatively predicted daily life satisfaction.61This relationship was mediated by daily work–family conflict.61First stage, cross-level interaction effect of supervisor work–family support was significant.61However, moderated mediation was not supported.

Harju L. K., Hakanen J. J., & Schaufeli W. B . ( 2016).

Can job crafting reduce job boredom and increase work engagement? A three-year cross-lagged panel study

Journal of Vocational Behavior, 95-96, 11-20.

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61Increasing challenges reduced job boredom and increased work engagement.61Work engagement positively predicted increasing structural and social job resources.61Job boredom negatively predicted increasing structural resources.61Increasing challenges spurred other job crafting behaviors.61Increasing job resources predicted increasing challenges.

Howardson G. N., Karim M. N., & Horn R. G . ( 2017).

The latent change score model: A more flexible approach to modeling time in self-regulated learning

Journal of Business & Psychology, 32, (3), 317-334.

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This research advances understanding of empirical time modeling techniques in self-regulated learning research. We intuitively explain several such methods by situating their use in the extant literat

Jebb A.T., &Tay L. ( 2016).

Introduction to time series analysis for organizational research: Methods for longitudinal analyses

Organizational Research Methods, 20, (1), 61-94.

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Kam C., Morin A. J. S., Meyer J. P., & Topolnytsky L . ( 2016).

Are commitment profiles stable and predictable? A latent transition analysis

Journal of Management, 42, (6), 1462-1490.

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ABSTRACT Recent efforts have been made to identify and compare employees with profiles reflecting different combinations of affective (AC), normative (NC), and continuance (CC) organizational commitment. To date, the optimal profiles in terms of employee behavior and well-being have been found to be those in which AC, NC, and CC are all strong, or those where AC, or AC and NC, dominate. The poorest outcomes are found for profiles where AC, NC, and CC are all weak, or CC dominates. The primary goal of the current study was to use latent profile analysis and latent transition analysis to identify profile groups and examine changes in profile membership over an 8-month period in an organization undergoing a strategic change. We also tested hypotheses concerning the relation between perceived trustworthiness of management and employees鈥 commitment profile within and across time. We found that commitment profiles have substantial temporal stability and that trustworthiness positively predicts memberships in more desirable commitment profiles. There was also some, albeit weak, evidence that changes in perceived trustworthiness were accompanied by corresponding shifts in the commitment profile.

Kelloway E.K., &Francis L. ( 2013).

Longitudinal research and data analysis

In R. R. Sinclair, M. Wang, & L. E. Tetrick,, Eds.), Research methods in occupational health psychology: Measurement, design, and data analysis

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Law K. S., Wong C-S., Yan M., & Huang G . ( 2016).

Asian researchers should be more critical: The example of testing mediators using time-lagged data

Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 33, (2), 319-341.

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In the past decade, there has been call for Asian researchers to be more confident and not limit themselves to follow only the footsteps of Western studies. In this paper, we follow up the discussion...

Lang J., Bliese P. D., Lang J. W., & Adler A. B . ( 2011).

Work gets unfair for the depressed: Cross-lagged relations between organizational justice perceptions and depressive symptoms

Journal of Business & Psychology, 96, (3), 602-618.

URL     PMID:21299270      [本文引用: 2]

The organizational justice literature has consistently documented substantial correlations between organizational justice and employee depression. Existing theoretical literature suggests this relationship occurs because perceptions of organizational (in)justice lead to subsequent psychological health problems. Building on recent research on the affective nature of justice perceptions, in the present research we broaden this perspective by arguing there are also theoretical arguments for a reverse effect whereby psychological health problems influence perceptions of organizational justice. To contrast both theoretical perspectives, we test longitudinal lagged effects between organizational justice perceptions (i.e., distributive justice, interactional justice, interpersonal justice, informational justice, and procedural justice) and employee depressive symptoms using structural equation modeling. Analyses of 3 samples from different military contexts (N69 = 625, N60 = 134, N61 = 550) revealed evidence of depressive symptoms leading to subsequent organizational justice perceptions. In contrast, the opposite effects of organizational justice perceptions on depressive symptoms were not significant for any of the justice dimensions. The findings have broad implications for theoretical perspectives on psychological health and organizational justice perceptions.

Lang J. W. B., Bliese P. D., & de Voogt A . ( 2018).

Modeling consensus emergence in groups using longitudinal multilevel methods

Personnel Psychology, 71, 2), 255-281.

URL    

@article{8554821, author = {Lang, Jonas and Bliese, Paul D. and de Voogt, Alex}, issn = {0031-5826}, journal = {Personnel Psychology}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, title = {Modeling consensus emergence in groups using longitudinal multilevel methods}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/peps.12260}, year = {2017}, }

Levin K.A . ( 2006).

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Evidence-Based Dentistry, 7(1), 24-25.

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Li W. D., Fay D., Frese M., Harms P. D., & Gao X. Y . ( 2014).

Reciprocal relationship between proactive personality and work characteristics: A latent change score approach

Journal of Applied Psychology, 99, (5), 948-965.

URL     PMID:24635530      [本文引用: 3]

Previous proactivity research has predominantly assumed that proactive personality generates positive environmental changes in the workplace. Grounded in recent research on personality from a broad interactionist theoretical approach, the present article investigates whether work characteristics, including job demands, job control, social support from supervisors and coworkers, and organizational constraints, change proactive personality over time and, more important, reciprocal relationships between proactive personality and work characteristics. Latent change score analyses based on longitudinal data collected in 3 waves across 3 years show that job demands and job control have positive lagged effects on increases in proactive personality. In addition, proactive personality exerts beneficial lagged effects on increases in job demands, job control, and supervisory support, and on decreases in organizational constraints. Dynamic reciprocal relationships are observed between proactive personality with job demands and job control. The revealed corresponsive change relationships between proactive personality and work characteristics contribute to the proactive personality literature by illuminating more nuanced interplays between the agentic person and work characteristics, and also have important practical implications for organizations and employees.

Liu S., Wang M., Bamberger P., Shi J., & Bacharach S. B. .( 2015). The dark side of socialization: A longitudinal investigation of newcomer alcohol use. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 58(2), 334-355.

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Liu Y., Wang M., Chang C. H., Shi J., Zhou L., & Shao R . ( 2015).

Work-family conflict, emotional exhaustion, and displaced aggression toward others: The moderating roles of workplace interpersonal conflict and perceived managerial family support

Journal of Applied Psychology, 100, (3), 793-808.

URL     PMID:25528246      [本文引用: 4]

Abstract Taking a resource-based self-regulation perspective, this study examined afternoon emotional exhaustion as a mediator linking the within-person relations between morning work-family conflict and later employee displaced aggression in the work and family domains. In addition, it examined resource-related contextual factors as moderators of these relations. The theoretical model was tested using daily diary data from 125 employees. Data were collected at 4 time points during each workday for 3 consecutive weeks. Multilevel modeling analysis showed that morning family-to-work conflict was positively related to afternoon emotional exhaustion, which in turn predicted displaced aggression toward supervisors and coworkers in the afternoon and displaced aggression toward family members in the evening. In addition, morning workplace interpersonal conflict exacerbated the impact of morning work-to-family conflict on afternoon emotional exhaustion, whereas perceived managerial family support alleviated the impact of morning family-to-work conflict on afternoon emotional exhaustion. These findings indicate the importance of adopting a self-regulation perspective to understand work-family conflict at work and its consequences (i.e., displaced aggression) in both work and family domains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

McArdle J.J . ( 2001).

A latent difference score approach to longitudinal dynamic structural analysis

In R. Cudeck, S. Du Toit, & D. Sörbom (Eds.), Structural equation modeling: Present and future( pp. 342-380). Lincolnwood, IL: Scientific Software International.

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Mcardle J.J . ( 2009).

Latent variable modeling of differences and changes with longitudinal data

Annual Review of Psychology, 60, (1), 577-605.

URL     PMID:18817479      [本文引用: 2]

Abstract This review considers a common question in data analysis: What is the most useful way to analyze longitudinal repeated measures data? We discuss some contemporary forms of structural equation models (SEMs) based on the inclusion of latent variables. The specific goals of this review are to clarify basic SEM definitions, consider relations to classical models, focus on testable features of the new models, and provide recent references to more complete presentations. A broader goal is to illustrate why so many researchers are enthusiastic about the SEM approach to data analysis. We first outline some classic problems in longitudinal data analysis, consider definitions of differences and changes, and raise issues about measurement errors. We then present several classic SEMs based on the inclusion of invariant common factors and explain why these are so important. This leads to newer SEMs based on latent change scores, and we explain why these are useful.

Miles J.A . ( 2012).

Management and organization theory: A Jossey-Bass reader

Jossey-Bass.

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[ 杰弗里·A·迈尔斯 . ( 2017).

管理与组织研究必读的40个理论

(徐世勇, 李超平等译). 北京: 北京大学出版社.]

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Moazami-Goodarzi A., Nurmi J-E., Mauno S., & Rantanen J . ( 2015).

Cross-lagged relations between work-family enrichment, vigor at work, and core self-evaluations: A three-wave study

Journal of Business and Psychology, 30, (3), 473-482.

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Purpose The purpose of this longitudinal study was to investigate the cross-lagged relations between core self-evaluations, vigor at work, and work–family enrichment over 302years.

Ng T. W.H., &Feldman D.C . ( 2015).

The moderating effects of age in the relationships of job autonomy to work outcomes

Work Aging & Retirement, 1, (1), 64-78.

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Guided by socio-emotional selectivity theory, the article proposes 2 competing hypotheses regarding whether older workers react more or less positively to job autonomy than younger workers do. In a meta-analysis of 415 empirical samples, we observed that job autonomy was positively and significantly related to a wide variety of positive work outcomes (in both cross-sectional and longitudinal designs). The results provide partial support for each hypothesis. For example, the relationships of job autonomy to job self-efficacy and job performance were stronger for older workers, but the relationships of job autonomy to job satisfaction and affective commitment were weaker for older workers.

Ployhart R.E., &Ward A-K. ( 2011).

The “quick start guide” for conducting and publishing longitudinal research

Journal of Business and Psychology, 26, (4), 413-422.

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Consideration of temporal issues adds precision and insight to our theories, yet most organizational and applied psychological research is based on cross-sectional designs. Calls for longitudinal research have become common in leading journals, but the existing literature provides little prescriptive guidance to overcome the many challenges of this type of research. This article provides a concise summary of challenges to address when theorizing, designing, conducting, and publishing longitudinal research. We structure the article around 12 judgment calls that typically confront researchers when conducting longitudinal studies. We respond to these judgment calls using theory and findings from the relevant literatures, as well as our own experience in designing and conducting longitudinal research across many scholarly domains. Included in these judgment calls is an emphasis on presenting and framing one's study for publication. We challenge readers to develop theory that addresses the when, why, and duration of change, and to test the theory with the appropriate longitudinal methods. This "quick start guide" is intended to serve as a useful reference for authors and reviewers at any level of methodological expertise.

Ployhart R.E., &Vandenberg R.J . ( 2010).

Longitudinal research: The theory, design, and analysis of change

Journal of Management, 36, (1), 94-120.

URL     [本文引用: 4]

ABSTRACT The purpose of this article is to present cutting-edge research on issues relating to the theory, design, and analysis of change. Rather than a highly technical review, our goal is to provide management scholars with a relatively nontechnical single source useful for helping them develop and evaluate longitudinal research. Toward that end, we provide readers with “checklists” of issues to consider when theorizing and designing a longitudinal study. We also discuss the trade-offs among analytic strategies (repeated measures general linear model, random coefficient modeling, and latent growth modeling), circumstances in which such methods are most appropriate, and ways to analyze data when one is using each approach.

Pitariu A.H., &Ployhart R.E . ( 2010).

Explaining change: Theorizing and testing dynamic mediated longitudinal relationships

Journal of Management, 36, (2), 405-429.

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ABSTRACT Many disciplines of scholarship have developed theories that involve dynamic mediated (and multilevel) relationships among constructs. However, most research does not hypothesize or test these dynamic relationships in a manner consistent with theory. In this article, the authors address this disconnect by first noting the theoretical and methodological limitations of ignoring dynamic mediated (and multilevel) relationships. Specifically, the authors show that theory testing suffers and statistical conclusions are often erroneous when dynamic mediation is ignored. The authors then present several ways of conceptualizing dynamic mediated relationships and then turn to summarizing two statistical models for analyzing such data. They conclude with a brief example from a team performance context.

Rindfleisch A., Malter A. J., Ganesan S., & Moorman C . ( 2008).

Cross-sectional versus longitudinal survey research: Concepts, findings, and guidelines

Journal of Marketing Research, 45, (3), 261-279.

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Riza S. D., Ganzach Y., & Liu Y . ( 2016).

Time and job satisfaction: A longitudinal study of the differential roles of age and tenure

Journal of Management, 44, (7), 2558-2579.

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Taris T.W., &Kompier M. ( 2014).

Cause and effect: Optimizing the designs of longitudinal studies in occupational health psychology

Work & Stress, 28, (1), 1-8.

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(2014). Cause and effect: Optimizing the designs of longitudinal studies in occupational health psychology. Work & Stress: Vol. 28, Longitudinal Research in Occupational Health Psychology, pp. 1-8. doi: 10.1080/02678373.2014.878494

Taylor S. G., Bedeian A. G., Cole M. S., & Zhang Z . ( 2017).

Developing and testing a dynamic model of workplace incivility change

Journal of Management, 43, (3), 645-670.

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ABSTRACT Theory and practice suggest workplace incivility is progressive and dynamic. To date, however, workplace incivility has been assessed as a between-person phenomenon by asking employees to summarize their exposure to incivility over some specific period (e.g., 1 year or 5 years). Consequently, little is known about the time-varying and progressive aspects of workplace incivility as suggested by both the referent literature and experience. Within the context of employee burnout and withdrawal, we developed a novel, dynamic mediated model of workplace incivility change and tested specific predictions about its time-sequential effects. Latent change score modeling of weekly survey data from 131 employees indicates that incivility change uniquely affects subsequent changes in burnout, which, in turn, lead to subsequent changes in turnover cognitions. We also explore whether this dynamic mediated effect varies across time and individuals.

Tims M., Bakker A. B., & Derks D . ( 2015).

Job crafting and job performance: A longitudinal study

EuropeanJournal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 24, (6), 914-928.

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In this three-wave study (N= 288), we examined whether job crafting intentions and work engagement led to actual job crafting behaviours and, in turn, to higher levels of prospective work engagement and job performance. We used the Job Demands-Resources model as a theoretical framework and defined job crafting as the self-initiated changes that employees make in their job demands and resources. One month after reporting their job crafting intentions, respondents rated their actual job crafting behaviours. Again one month later, they rated their levels of work engagement, in-role performance, and organizational citizenship behaviour towards individuals (OCBI). Results of structural equation modelling showed that job crafting intentions and work engagement significantly related to actual job crafting, which, in turn, related to higher levels of work engagement, while controlling for job characteristics. Results further showed that engaged employees performed better on their in-role tasks but did not perform more OCBIs. The findings suggest that employees can increase their own work engagement and job performance through job crafting.

Vogt K., Hakanen J. J., Brauchli R., Jenny G. J., & Bauer G. F . ( 2016).

The consequences of job crafting: A three- wave study

European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 25, (3), 353-362.

URL     [本文引用: 3]

This longitudinal study examined the consequences of job crafting on two important employee outcomes: psychological capital (PsyCap) as a work-related personal resource and work engagement as an indicator of employee well-being. The study also tested the reverse causation effects of PsyCap and work engagement on job crafting. It used a three-wave, three-month panel design to survey 940 employees from three European countries working in a broad range of economic sectors and occupations. The results of the cross-lagged longitudinal structural equation modelling demonstrated that job crafting predicted PsyCap and work engagement over time. No reverse causation effects were found. Overall, this study shows that when individuals proactively build a resourceful and challenging work environment for themselves, it can lead to diverse positive outcomes that are crucial to employee health and well-being. Employees should therefore be encouraged and be given the opportunity to craft their own jobs.

Winkler E., Busch C., Clasen J., & Vowinkel J . ( 2015).

Changes in leadership behaviors predict changes in job satisfaction and well-being in low-skilled workers: A longitudinal investigation

Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies, 22, (1), 72-87.

URL     [本文引用: 2]

ABSTRACT The purpose of this longitudinal study of 255 members of the low-skilled workforce was to enhance insight into the nature of the relations between specific supervisor behavior (social support, positive feedback, task-related communication) and employee well-being. Data were analyzed using latent change models focusing on interindividual change and change-change associations over time. Our results indicated that interindividual differences in the intraindividual change in perceived supervisor behavior were related to changes in indicators of well-being across a 6-month period. These results provide further evidence for longitudinal associations between leader behavior and employee outcomes as well as the necessity of designing specific interventions for low-level managers.

Wu C.-H., &Griffin M.A . ( 2012).

Longitudinal relationships between core self-evaluations and job satisfaction

Journal of Applied Psychology, 97, (2), 331-342.

URL     PMID:21942408      [本文引用: 1]

Abstract Core self-evaluations (CSE) have been proposed as a static personality trait that influences individuals' work experiences. However, CSE can also be influenced by work experiences. Based on the corresponsive principle of personality development, this study incorporated both dispositional and contextual perspectives to examine longitudinal reciprocal relationships between CSE and job satisfaction. Longitudinal data from 5,827 participants in the British Household Panel Survey from 1997 to 2006 were analyzed. A series of structural equation models revealed that job satisfaction and the growth of job satisfaction in previous years positively predicted CSE in a later year. In turn, CSE contributed to higher job satisfaction and growth of job satisfaction in following years. This result shows that both dispositional and contextual forces interweave to shape individuals' self-views and experiences over time.

Zablah A. R., Carlson B. D., Donavan D. T., Maxham J. G., & Brown T. J . ( 2016).

A cross-lagged test of the association between customer satisfaction and employee job satisfaction in a relational context

Journal of Applied Psychology, 101, (5), 743-755.

URL     PMID:26783827      [本文引用: 2]

Abstract Due to its practical importance, the relationship between customer satisfaction and frontline employee (FLE) job satisfaction has received significant attention in the literature. Numerous studies to date confirm that the constructs are related and rely on this empirical finding to infer support for the "inside-out" effect of FLE job satisfaction on customer satisfaction. In doing so, prior studies ignore the possibility that-as suggested by the Service Profit Chain's satisfaction mirror-a portion of the observed empirical effect may be due to the "outside-in" impact of customer satisfaction on FLE job satisfaction. Consequently, both the magnitude and direction of the causal relationship between the constructs remain unclear. To address this oversight, this study builds on multisource data, including longitudinal satisfaction data provided by 49,242 customers and 1,470 FLEs from across 209 retail stores, to examine the association between FLE job satisfaction and customer satisfaction in a context where service relationships are the norm. Consistent with predictions rooted in social exchange theory, the results reveal that (a) customer satisfaction and FLE job satisfaction are reciprocally related; (b) the outside-in effect of customer satisfaction on FLE job satisfaction is predominant (i.e., larger in magnitude than the inside-out effect); and (c) customer engagement determines the extent of this outside-in predominance. Contrary to common wisdom, the study's findings suggest that, in relational contexts, incentivizing FLEs to satisfy customers may prove to be more effective for enhancing FLE and customer outcomes than direct investments in FLE job satisfaction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

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