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Advances in Psychological Science    2014, Vol. 22 Issue (3) : 482-491     DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00482
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The Planning Fallacy in Judgment and Decision Making
ZHENG Qiuqiang;XU Fuming;LUO Hanbing;LI Bin;ZHANG Hui
(Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior, Ministry of Education (CCNU); School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, China)
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Abstract  

The planning fallacy refers to people’s overoptimistic tendency to underestimate the time required to complete a future task. Researchers have provided theories to explain the psychological mechanism of planning fallacy, planning fallacy theory and memory bias theory. Evidences show planning fallacy could be influenced by some factors, such as cognitive factors, motivational factors, individual experience level and task property. Previous research findings show that planning fallacy could be avoided by coping strategy. The directions for further researches of planning fallacy are discussed. Future researches are expected to clear up the delicate relationship among planning fallacy, strategic misrepresentation, optimistic bias and overconfidence and explore its original source, cross-cultural significance and practical application values.

Keywords planning fallacy      memory bias      optimistic bias      coping strategies     
Corresponding Authors: XU Fuming   
Issue Date: 15 March 2014
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ZHENG Qiuqiang
XU Fuming
LUO Hanbing
LI Bin
ZHANG Hui
Cite this article:   
ZHENG Qiuqiang,XU Fuming,LUO Hanbing, et al. The Planning Fallacy in Judgment and Decision Making[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2014, 22(3): 482-491.
URL:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00482     OR     http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/Y2014/V22/I3/482
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