关键词: 证实性偏差, 肯定检验策略, 认知失调, 错误规避

Abstract: Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information or interpret evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectation, or hypothesises and to ignore or overlook information that is potentially inconsistent. This tendency is universal in behavioral decision making. Currently, researchers explicating the generation mechanism of confirmation bias, have proposed theories like positive-test strategy, cognitive dissonance theory and error avoidance phenomenon. In addition, researches highlighted moderating variables, including need for cognitive closure, abstractness of materials, experience, and conditional reference frame, to which confirmation bias may be subjected. Though a largely implacable cognitive tendency, confirmation bias can be abated through analysis of competing hypotheses and a consideration of the opposite. Moreover, directions for future study on confirmation bias are discussed.

Key words: confirmation bias, positive-test strategy, cognitive dissonance theory, error avoidance