Distinguishing between causality, influence, correlation, and prediction*

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2025.1108

Abstract

Abstract:

In response to Wen et al.’s (2024b) proposal of the new term called influence relationship, Ge (2025) raised the following doubts: (1) the new term lacks a clear definition; (2) influence relationship could not be distinguished from causal relationship; (3) one should not create a new objective (or relationship) simply because causality is not achieved; (4) the so-called influence relationship should be termed prediction instead. This article attempts to resolve his doubts as follows: (1) influence relationship has been defined rigorously, employing the “genus and differentia” method; (2) a causal relationship is necessarily an influence relationship, but an influence relationship is not necessarily a causal relationship; (3) establishing an influence relationship can be a goal for non-experimental research, which is superior to merely establishing a correlational relationship; (4) prediction is an application of variable relationships but is not the relationship itself and is not equivalent to the influence relationship.

Key words: influence relationship, correlation relationship, causal relationship, influence factor, prediction

WEN Zhonglin, MA Peng, MENG Jin, WANG Yifan. (2025). Distinguishing between causality, influence, correlation, and prediction^*. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 57(6), 1108-1118.

Figures/Tables 1

References 37

[1]	Altman N., & Krzywinski M. (2015). Association, correlation and causation. Nature Methods, 12(10), 899-900. doi: 10.1038/nmeth.3587 pmid: 26688882
[2]	Bailey D. H., Jung A. J., Beltz A. M., Eronen M. I., Gische C., Hamaker E. L.,... Murayama K. (2024). Causal inference on human behaviour. Nature Human Behaviour, 8(8), 1448-1459. doi: 10.1038/s41562-024-01939-z pmid: 39179747
[3]	Bartram D., Alaimo L. S., Avery E., Bardo A., Bella E. D., Binder M.,... Tani M. (2024). Towards the next fifty years of Social Indicators Research: Some guidance for authors. Social Indicators Research, 174(1), 1-17.
[4]	Cohen J., Cohen P., West S. G., & Aiken L. S. (2002). Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences (3rd ed.). Routledge.
[5]	Copi I. M., Cohen C., & Rodych V. (2018). Introduction to logic (15th ed.). Routledge.
[6]	Dai B., & Jian X. (2022). Applications of SPSS26.0 statistical analysis in psychology and education. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press.
[7]	Gan Y., Zhang Y., & Zheng L. (2019). Introduction to psychological and behavioral Statistics (2nd ed.). Beijing: Peking University Press.
[8]	Ge X. (2025). The so-called influence relationship requires caution: Commentary on Wen et al. (2024). Acta Psychologica Sinica, 57, In press.
[9]	Gladstone J. J., Matz S. C., & Lemaire A. (2019). Can psychological traits be inferred from spending? Evidence from transaction data. Psychological Science, 30(7), 1087-1096. doi: 10.1177/0956797619849435 pmid: 31166847
[10]	Granger C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
[11]	Gravetter F. J., Wallnau L. B., Forzano L. B., & Witnauer J. E. (2021). Essentials of statistics for the behavioral sciences (10th ed.). Cengage Learning.
[12]	Haber N. A., Wieten S. E., Rohrer J. M., Arah O. A., Tennant P. W. G., Stuart E. A.,... Fox M. P. (2022). Causal and associational language in observational health research: A systematic evaluation. American Journal of Epidemiology, 191(12), 2084-2097. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwac137 pmid: 35925053
[13]	Hernán M. A., & Robins J. M. (2020). Causal inference: What if. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
[14]	Hau, K-T., Wen Z., & Cheng Z. (2021). Structural equation model and its applications (Edition with Mplus). Beijing: Educational Science Publishing House.
[15]	Huang X., & Zhang Z. (2010). Research methods in psychology (2nd ed.). Beijing: Higher Education Press.
[16]	Li W. (2018). The potential outcomes model in the causal inference: Origins, logic, and implications. Public Administration Review, 11(1), 124-149.
[17]	Minkande J. B. (2025). Farming households facing food insecurity in Cameroon: What indicators for resilience? Social Indicators Research. In press.
[18]	Morling B. (2018). Research methods in psychology: Evaluating a world of information (3rd ed.). W.W. Norton & Company.
[19]	Popper K. R. (1959). The logic of scientific discovery. New York: Routledge.
[20]	Rubin D. B. (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology, 66(5), 688-701.
[21]	Rubin D. B. (2005). Causal inference using potential outcomes: Design, modeling, decisions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100(469), 322-331.
[22]	Shadish W. R., Cook T. D., & Campbell D. T. (2002). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference. Boston: Houghton-Mifflin.
[23]	Sheng Z., Xie S., & Pan C. (2008). Probability theory and mathematical statistics (4th ed.). Beijing: Higher Education Press.
[24]	Shi Y. (2005). Applied mathematical statistics. Xi'an: Xi'an Jiaotong University Press.
[25]	Smith R. (1995). Logic and the definition of terms:Aristotle's theory of definition. In W. Wians (Ed.), Aristotle's philosophical development: Problems and prospects (pp. 123-144). Rowman & Littlefield.
[26]	Song L. (2025). Unveiling the neighborhood effect on intergenerational mobility: Which scale is more relevant? Social Indicators Research, 176, 5-28.
[27]	Wang T. (2006). Causal analysis in social research. Sociological Studies, 7(4), 132-157.
[28]	Wen Z. (1998). New approaches to some issues about statistical tests in educational experiments. Education Research and Experiment, (1), 63-66.
[29]	Wen Z. (2016). Statistics in psychology and education (2nd ed.). Guangzhou: Guangdong Higher Education Press.
[30]	Wen Z., Liu F., Zheng Y., Liao X., & Huang Y. (2024a). Why are there so many empirical articles on moderating or mediating effects? Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology, 30(4), 291-297.
[31]	Wen Z., Wang Y., Ma P., & Meng J. (2024b). The influence relationship among variables and types of multiple influence factors working together. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 56(10), 1462-1470.
[32]	Wen Z., Xie J., Fang J., & Wang Y. (2022). Methodological research on hypothesis test and related issues in China's mainland from 2001 to 2020. Advances in Psychological Science, 30(8), 1667-1681.
[33]	Wen Z., & Ye B. (2014). Analyses of mediating effects: The development of methods and models. Advances in Psychological Science, 22(5), 731-745. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00731
[34]	Xin Z. (2017). Research methods in psychology (2nd ed.). Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press.
[35]	Xu Q. (2024). Fifty years of causal inference: Achievements, challenges, and responses. Academic Monthly, 56(11), 131-144.
[36]	Zhang H., & Xu J. (2020). Modern psychological and educational statistics (5th ed.). Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press.
[37]	Zhang M. (2010). Educational and psychological statistics (3rd ed.). Beijing: People's Education Press.